Top 14 Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 13.83 | 11.56 | 2.30 |
| Montpellier | 5.15 | -0.21 | 5.40 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.07 | 4.78 | 0.30 |
| Section Paloise | 4.38 | 2.21 | 2.20 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.57 | 1.22 | 2.40 |
| Clermont | 3.51 | 1.88 | 1.60 |
| Stade Francais | 2.97 | -2.17 | 5.10 |
| Racing 92 | 2.83 | 1.88 | 0.90 |
| Toulon | 0.41 | 3.49 | -3.10 |
| Lyon | 0.05 | -0.45 | 0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.05 | 0.59 | -1.60 |
| Bayonne | -2.86 | 1.48 | -4.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.59 | -3.37 | -1.20 |
| Montauban | -20.38 | -10.00 | -10.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 154 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Apr 26 | 21 – 23 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 26 | 26 – 21 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montauban vs. Racing 92 | Apr 26 | 10 – 59 | -14.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise | Apr 26 | 34 – 32 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Bayonne | Apr 26 | 52 – 26 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais | Apr 26 | 29 – 31 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Apr 27 | 24 – 27 | 18.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 10 | Bordeaux Begles | -1.40 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. USA Perpignan | May 10 | Clermont | 14.60 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Montauban | May 10 | Montpellier | 32.00 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | May 10 | Section Paloise | 11.90 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | May 10 | Stade Francais | 9.40 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | May 10 | Stade Toulousain | -6.90 |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais | May 11 | Racing 92 | 5.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »