NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 15.07 | 8.77 | 6.30 |
| Roosters | 7.58 | 9.50 | -1.90 |
| Broncos | 5.58 | 7.06 | -1.50 |
| Sharks | 4.40 | 7.25 | -2.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.45 | 0.21 | 2.20 |
| Warriors | 2.32 | -1.18 | 3.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 0.83 | -5.05 | 5.90 |
| Storm | 0.29 | 6.96 | -6.70 |
| Dolphins | 0.12 | 1.85 | -1.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.31 | -7.26 | 6.90 |
| Bulldogs | -0.94 | 2.13 | -3.10 |
| Cowboys | -1.92 | -2.69 | 0.80 |
| Raiders | -2.80 | 1.62 | -4.40 |
| Eels | -5.15 | -0.37 | -4.80 |
| Titans | -5.40 | -8.02 | 2.60 |
| Knights | -9.30 | -14.06 | 4.80 |
| Dragons | -12.81 | -6.72 | -6.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Apr 23 | 33 – 14 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Apr 24 | 46 – 34 | -4.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Apr 24 | 32 – 12 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 16 – 62 | -21.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Dolphins | Apr 25 | 20 – 18 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | 6 – 48 | 9.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Panthers | Apr 26 | 12 – 44 | -18.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Apr 26 | 33 – 18 | 10.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | May 01 | Bulldogs | 5.00 |
| 2 | Dolphins vs. Storm | May 01 | Dolphins | 3.80 |
| 3 | Titans vs. Raiders | May 02 | Titans | 1.40 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Warriors | May 02 | Warriors | -3.50 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Broncos | May 02 | Roosters | 6.00 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | May 03 | Rabbitohs | -6.10 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Wests Tigers | May 03 | Sharks | 8.70 |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | May 03 | Panthers | 16.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »