AFL Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 24.72 | 26.75 | -2.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 23.55 | 26.20 | -2.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 22.22 | 0.56 | 21.70 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.26 | 22.83 | -2.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 14.49 | 6.56 | 7.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 12.30 | 26.06 | -13.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 9.84 | 10.24 | -0.40 |
| Collingwood | 8.79 | 11.76 | -3.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 8.74 | 15.32 | -6.60 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.39 | -7.63 | 9.00 |
| GWS Giants | 0.06 | 9.54 | -9.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.41 | 1.64 | -2.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -6.18 | -14.65 | 8.50 |
| Carlton Blues | -8.06 | -4.77 | -3.30 |
| North Melbourne | -10.95 | -21.71 | 10.80 |
| Essendon Bombers | -25.25 | -27.89 | 2.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -40.00 | -29.44 | -10.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -43.52 | -39.36 | -4.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 81 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 07 | 88 – 73 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues | May 08 | 100 – 89 | 48.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs | May 08 | 72 – 74 | -8.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans | May 09 | 97 – 105 | -24.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers | May 09 | 103 – 89 | 40.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. St Kilda Saints | May 09 | 89 – 60 | 4.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood | May 09 | 122 – 68 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles | May 10 | 99 – 67 | 58.10 | TRUE |
| 9 | Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows | May 10 | 61 – 98 | -37.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats | May 14 | Brisbane Lions | 9.80 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood | May 15 | Sydney Swans | 24.40 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 15 | Gold Coast Suns | 16.00 |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne | May 16 | Adelaide Crows | 30.70 |
| 5 | Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 16 | Hawthorn Hawks | -20.70 |
| 6 | Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs | May 16 | Western Bulldogs | -20.40 |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 17 | Fremantle Dockers | -28.70 |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers | May 17 | St Kilda Saints | 41.40 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants | May 17 | GWS Giants | -32.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »