Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals
Team Ratings for the SemiFinals
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 6.03 | 0.07 | 6.00 |
| Western Province | 6.02 | 3.43 | 2.60 |
| Sharks | 4.36 | 5.09 | -0.70 |
| Blue Bulls | 1.02 | -0.74 | 1.80 |
| Cheetahs | -3.53 | 0.33 | -3.90 |
| Pumas | -8.20 | -10.00 | 1.80 |
| Griquas | -10.10 | -7.49 | -2.60 |
| Kings | -14.91 | -10.00 | -4.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings vs. Pumas | Oct 10 | 26 – 25 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lions vs. Cheetahs | Oct 11 | 47 – 7 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Western Province vs. Sharks | Oct 11 | 20 – 28 | 8.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Blue Bulls vs. Griquas | Oct 11 | 46 – 12 | 13.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for the SemiFinals
Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Sharks | Oct 18 | Lions | 6.70 |
| 2 | Western Province vs. Blue Bulls | Oct 18 | Western Province | 10.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »