Top 14 Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 13.45 | 11.56 | 1.90 |
| Montpellier | 5.96 | -0.21 | 6.20 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.99 | 1.22 | 3.80 |
| Stade Francais | 4.84 | -2.17 | 7.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.67 | 4.78 | -0.10 |
| Section Paloise | 4.28 | 2.21 | 2.10 |
| Clermont | 4.18 | 1.88 | 2.30 |
| Racing 92 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 0.80 |
| Toulon | -0.53 | 3.49 | -4.00 |
| Lyon | -1.01 | -0.45 | -0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.21 | 0.59 | -1.80 |
| Bayonne | -2.81 | 1.48 | -4.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.72 | -3.37 | -1.30 |
| Montauban | -21.94 | -10.00 | -11.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | May 17 | 37 – 32 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | May 17 | 33 – 36 | -0.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Bayonne | May 17 | 42 – 35 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montauban vs. Stade Francais | May 17 | 25 – 73 | -18.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | May 17 | 43 – 28 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | May 17 | 24 – 19 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain | May 17 | 38 – 10 | -3.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais | May 31 | Stade Rochelais | -20.40 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | May 31 | Montpellier | 8.20 |
| 3 | Stade Francais vs. Bayonne | May 31 | Stade Francais | 14.10 |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon | May 31 | Stade Toulousain | 21.00 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | May 31 | USA Perpignan | 3.00 |
| 6 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Jun 01 | Clermont | 8.00 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jun 01 | Toulon | 1.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »