Top 14 Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 12.06 | 12.37 | -0.30 |
| Montpellier | 6.67 | 6.36 | 0.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.37 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.20 | 4.97 | 0.20 |
| Section Paloise | 4.82 | 4.18 | 0.60 |
| Stade Francais | 4.63 | 5.68 | -1.00 |
| Clermont | 2.75 | 4.21 | -1.50 |
| Racing 92 | 1.72 | 3.59 | -1.90 |
| Toulon | -0.40 | -0.81 | 0.40 |
| Lyon | -0.52 | -0.94 | 0.40 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.91 | -0.29 | -0.60 |
| Bayonne | -1.38 | -2.02 | 0.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.20 | -5.39 | 0.20 |
| Vannes | -9.20 | -10.00 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 11 | 22 – 23 | 4.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais | Oct 11 | 16 – 28 | 1.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 11 | 35 – 26 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Montpellier | Oct 11 | 30 – 22 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne | Oct 11 | 45 – 34 | 20.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Oct 11 | 29 – 15 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Vannes | Oct 11 | 21 – 12 | 10.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Lyon | Oct 25 | Bayonne | 5.60 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais | Oct 25 | Castres Olympique | 1.00 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Montpellier | Oct 25 | Racing 92 | 1.60 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 25 | Stade Rochelais | 6.30 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 25 | Stade Toulousain | 23.80 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Oct 25 | Toulon | 1.30 |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Clermont | Oct 25 | Clermont | -5.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »