Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 8.36 | 9.66 | -1.30 |
| Saracens | 8.06 | 8.04 | 0.00 |
| Northampton Saints | 8.02 | 8.34 | -0.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | 6.90 | 9.92 | -3.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.42 | 7.58 | -4.20 |
| Gloucester | 2.41 | -3.46 | 5.90 |
| Bristol | 1.28 | -0.11 | 1.40 |
| Sale Sharks | -2.40 | -2.31 | -0.10 |
| Harlequins | -6.30 | -3.58 | -2.70 |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | -21.02 | -25.37 | 4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Oct 10 | 38 – 31 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Oct 11 | 71 – 48 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Bristol | Oct 11 | 30 – 7 | 12.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Red Bulls | Oct 12 | 34 – 28 | 35.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins | Oct 12 | 28 – 24 | 12.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Bath | Oct 24 | Gloucester | 1.10 |
| 2 | Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 24 | Sale Sharks | -11.60 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 25 | Leicester Tigers | 5.90 |
| 4 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 25 | Bristol | 4.90 |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Saracens | Oct 26 | Saracens | -7.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »