Posts from June 2026 (22)

June 2, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.54 8.77 3.80
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Sharks 5.94 7.25 -1.30
Roosters 5.83 9.50 -3.70
Sea Eagles 5.19 0.21 5.00
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 2.33 6.96 -4.60
Cowboys -0.29 -2.69 2.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Broncos -0.77 7.06 -7.80
Raiders -1.33 1.62 -2.90
Bulldogs -4.42 2.13 -6.50
Knights -4.71 -14.06 9.30
Wests Tigers -4.98 -7.26 2.30
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.86 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -12.84 -6.72 -6.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 28 – 22 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 28 – 22 6.20 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 22 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 18 – 4 -1.80 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 26 – 30 19.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 26 – 12 1.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 20 – 18 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 Sea Eagles 9.60
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 Storm 11.00
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 Roosters -3.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 Dolphins -1.00
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 Broncos 10.00
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 Panthers -21.50
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 Sharks 22.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 Bulldogs 6.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.34 26.75 0.60
Sydney Swans 23.44 0.56 22.90
Hawthorn Hawks 18.89 22.83 -3.90
Fremantle Dockers 18.52 6.56 12.00
Adelaide Crows 12.11 15.32 -3.20
Brisbane Lions 10.78 26.20 -15.40
Western Bulldogs 9.67 26.06 -16.40
Gold Coast Suns 9.14 10.24 -1.10
GWS Giants 6.61 9.54 -2.90
Collingwood 6.37 11.76 -5.40
Melbourne Demons 0.50 1.64 -1.10
Carlton Blues -0.48 -4.77 4.30
St Kilda Saints -3.05 -7.63 4.60
Port Adelaide Power -10.24 -14.65 4.40
North Melbourne -12.25 -21.71 9.50
Essendon Bombers -30.74 -27.89 -2.80
West Coast Eagles -34.06 -39.36 5.30
Richmond Tigers -40.56 -29.44 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 28 67 – 119 -3.80 TRUE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats May 29 88 – 84 -20.60 FALSE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers May 30 170 – 56 68.20 TRUE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers May 30 78 – 103 8.30 FALSE
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood May 30 97 – 93 3.10 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants May 31 70 – 119 1.30 FALSE
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 31 85 – 55 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Jun 04 Geelong Cats -4.20
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 05 Hawthorn Hawks 9.20
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 06 Fremantle Dockers -41.80
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 Gold Coast Suns 3.40
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 06 Port Adelaide Power -12.80
6 Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 07 Sydney Swans 37.50
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 07 Carlton Blues -30.30
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 08 Collingwood 5.90

 

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