AFL Predictions for Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 27.34 | 26.75 | 0.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 23.44 | 0.56 | 22.90 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 18.89 | 22.83 | -3.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 18.52 | 6.56 | 12.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.11 | 15.32 | -3.20 |
| Brisbane Lions | 10.78 | 26.20 | -15.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 9.67 | 26.06 | -16.40 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 9.14 | 10.24 | -1.10 |
| GWS Giants | 6.61 | 9.54 | -2.90 |
| Collingwood | 6.37 | 11.76 | -5.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.50 | 1.64 | -1.10 |
| Carlton Blues | -0.48 | -4.77 | 4.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.05 | -7.63 | 4.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -10.24 | -14.65 | 4.40 |
| North Melbourne | -12.25 | -21.71 | 9.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -30.74 | -27.89 | -2.80 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.06 | -39.36 | 5.30 |
| Richmond Tigers | -40.56 | -29.44 | -11.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 106 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 28 | 67 – 119 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats | May 29 | 88 – 84 | -20.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers | May 30 | 170 – 56 | 68.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 30 | 78 – 103 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood | May 30 | 97 – 93 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants | May 31 | 70 – 119 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | May 31 | 85 – 55 | 3.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 04 | Geelong Cats | -4.20 |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 05 | Hawthorn Hawks | 9.20 |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 06 | Fremantle Dockers | -41.80 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 06 | Gold Coast Suns | 3.40 |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 06 | Port Adelaide Power | -12.80 |
| 6 | Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 07 | Sydney Swans | 37.50 |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 07 | Carlton Blues | -30.30 |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 08 | Collingwood | 5.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »