Posts from July 2026 (13)

July 14, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 20

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Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 25.32 6.56 18.80
Geelong Cats 22.98 26.75 -3.80
Brisbane Lions 20.31 26.20 -5.90
Hawthorn Hawks 16.95 22.83 -5.90
Adelaide Crows 16.07 15.32 0.80
Sydney Swans 15.99 0.56 15.40
Melbourne Demons 8.27 1.64 6.60
GWS Giants 8.17 9.54 -1.40
Collingwood 4.09 11.76 -7.70
Western Bulldogs 3.54 26.06 -22.50
St Kilda Saints 1.11 -7.63 8.70
Gold Coast Suns -2.79 10.24 -13.00
Carlton Blues -5.01 -4.77 -0.20
Port Adelaide Power -5.43 -14.65 9.20
North Melbourne -15.06 -21.71 6.70
West Coast Eagles -30.35 -39.36 9.00
Richmond Tigers -35.87 -29.44 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -36.29 -27.89 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 111 – 73 17.10 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 89 – 85 21.90 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 87 – 73 18.30 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 86 – 73 -6.90 FALSE
5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 39 – 103 -14.60 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 128 – 49 21.40 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 86 – 70 50.00 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 111 – 65 43.70 TRUE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 149 – 59 63.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 16 Geelong Cats 32.90
2 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 17 Sydney Swans 10.90
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 18 Fremantle Dockers -19.70
4 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 18 Melbourne Demons -23.30
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Jul 18 Collingwood 9.10
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 18 Brisbane Lions -39.70
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 19 Hawthorn Hawks -52.80
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 19 Gold Coast Suns 4.70
9 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 19 GWS Giants -33.50

 

July 7, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.21 8.77 4.40
Dolphins 7.66 1.85 5.80
Warriors 7.12 -1.18 8.30
Roosters 6.27 9.50 -3.20
Sharks 6.13 7.25 -1.10
Sea Eagles 4.92 0.21 4.70
Rabbitohs 1.77 -5.05 6.80
Storm 1.21 6.96 -5.70
Cowboys -0.85 -2.69 1.80
Bulldogs -2.61 2.13 -4.70
Knights -4.09 -14.06 10.00
Raiders -4.57 1.62 -6.20
Broncos -4.88 7.06 -11.90
Eels -5.97 -0.37 -5.60
Titans -6.47 -8.02 1.50
Wests Tigers -8.39 -7.26 -1.10
Dragons -10.46 -6.72 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 36 – 14 13.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 04 24 – 10 -0.20 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 16 – 28 -5.60 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jul 05 23 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Dolphins Jul 05 13 – 12 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 10 Warriors -11.50
2 Dolphins vs. Sharks Jul 11 Dolphins 5.50
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 11 Bulldogs 6.00
4 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 11 Roosters 16.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 12 Rabbitohs 9.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 12 Sea Eagles 9.80
7 Storm vs. Titans Jul 12 Storm 11.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 19

By

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 24.53 26.75 -2.20
Fremantle Dockers 23.70 6.56 17.10
Brisbane Lions 18.29 26.20 -7.90
Sydney Swans 17.60 0.56 17.00
Hawthorn Hawks 13.29 22.83 -9.50
Adelaide Crows 11.83 15.32 -3.50
Melbourne Demons 8.06 1.64 6.40
GWS Giants 6.63 9.54 -2.90
Western Bulldogs 6.11 26.06 -19.90
Collingwood 5.49 11.76 -6.30
St Kilda Saints 1.49 -7.63 9.10
Gold Coast Suns 1.44 10.24 -8.80
Carlton Blues -1.35 -4.77 3.40
Port Adelaide Power -5.82 -14.65 8.80
North Melbourne -16.45 -21.71 5.30
West Coast Eagles -32.92 -39.36 6.40
Essendon Bombers -34.27 -27.89 -6.40
Richmond Tigers -35.66 -29.44 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 02 101 – 123 24.10 FALSE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 90 – 55 20.20 TRUE
3 West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 03 74 – 99 -35.70 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 04 90 – 125 25.00 FALSE
5 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 04 109 – 88 -10.90 FALSE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 04 98 – 104 9.40 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jul 04 72 – 74 -40.00 TRUE
8 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 05 50 – 117 -30.20 TRUE
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Jul 05 73 – 52 21.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 Fremantle Dockers 17.10
2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 Collingwood 21.90
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 St Kilda Saints 18.30
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 Geelong Cats -6.90
5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 Hawthorn Hawks -14.60
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 Adelaide Crows 21.40
7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 Western Bulldogs 50.00
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 Melbourne Demons 43.70
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 Brisbane Lions 63.60

 

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