AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 24.44 | 26.20 | -1.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 23.04 | 0.56 | 22.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 22.75 | 6.56 | 16.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 22.64 | 26.75 | -4.10 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16.57 | 22.83 | -6.30 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14.94 | 15.32 | -0.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 10.76 | 1.64 | 9.10 |
| Carlton Blues | 7.61 | -4.77 | 12.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.92 | 26.06 | -21.10 |
| Collingwood | 3.18 | 11.76 | -8.60 |
| GWS Giants | -0.48 | 9.54 | -10.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.87 | 10.24 | -12.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.24 | -7.63 | 4.40 |
| North Melbourne | -10.83 | -21.71 | 10.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -18.07 | -14.65 | -3.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.36 | -39.36 | 6.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.74 | -29.44 | -4.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -37.26 | -27.89 | -9.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 207 matches played, 147 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 20 | 80 – 103 | 15.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 21 | 96 – 159 | -1.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Aug 22 | 157 – 101 | 21.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 22 | 119 – 82 | -11.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 22 | 133 – 76 | 69.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs | Aug 22 | 87 – 108 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 23 | 95 – 104 | -8.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne | Aug 23 | 123 – 70 | 43.10 | TRUE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 23 | 45 – 107 | -34.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood | Aug 28 | Western Bulldogs | 1.70 |
| 2 | Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 29 | Melbourne Demons | 3.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »