NRL Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 10.62 | -1.18 | 11.80 |
| Roosters | 9.62 | 9.50 | 0.10 |
| Panthers | 9.43 | 8.77 | 0.70 |
| Sharks | 8.35 | 7.25 | 1.10 |
| Dolphins | 5.26 | 1.85 | 3.40 |
| Storm | 0.94 | 6.96 | -6.00 |
| Knights | 0.56 | -14.06 | 14.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 0.55 | -5.05 | 5.60 |
| Raiders | 0.13 | 1.62 | -1.50 |
| Bulldogs | -0.62 | 2.13 | -2.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.13 | 0.21 | -2.30 |
| Cowboys | -3.01 | -2.69 | -0.30 |
| Eels | -5.02 | -0.37 | -4.60 |
| Broncos | -6.71 | 7.06 | -13.80 |
| Titans | -6.91 | -8.02 | 1.10 |
| Dragons | -8.25 | -6.72 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -12.82 | -7.26 | -5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 180 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Aug 13 | 6 – 12 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins | Aug 14 | 0 – 22 | -0.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 14 | 6 – 22 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 15 | 20 – 24 | 14.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Aug 15 | 32 – 30 | 2.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Warriors | Aug 15 | 6 – 40 | -10.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Titans | Aug 16 | 36 – 26 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Aug 16 | 22 – 24 | -0.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Panthers | Aug 20 | Panthers | -4.50 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Aug 21 | Raiders | 10.80 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Eels | Aug 21 | Dolphins | 14.30 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 22 | Knights | 6.70 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Aug 22 | Warriors | -6.10 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Aug 22 | Bulldogs | -7.60 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Sharks | Aug 23 | Sharks | -11.30 |
| 8 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 23 | Roosters | 26.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »