September 15, 2026

NFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 11.90 12.03 -0.10
Patriots 8.24 8.11 0.10
Jaguars 5.75 4.17 1.60
Bills 5.61 4.81 0.80
Texans 4.72 5.51 -0.80
Vikings 4.26 2.79 1.50
Lions 4.14 5.20 -1.10
Rams 3.96 6.16 -2.20
Ravens 3.91 2.53 1.40
49ers 2.83 0.63 2.20
Bears 2.67 1.18 1.50
Broncos 1.81 4.07 -2.30
Chiefs 0.92 -1.34 2.30
Bengals 0.62 0.39 0.20
Steelers 0.42 -0.43 0.80
Eagles 0.26 0.73 -0.50
Packers 0.24 1.72 -1.50
Chargers -0.68 1.16 -1.80
Giants -1.41 -2.38 1.00
Colts -2.12 -0.74 -1.40
Falcons -2.23 -1.39 -0.80
Saints -2.32 -3.38 1.10
Browns -4.08 -2.50 -1.60
Commanders -4.18 -4.65 0.50
Buccaneers -4.19 -3.95 -0.20
Raiders -4.26 -5.72 1.50
Cowboys -4.40 -3.42 -1.00
Dolphins -5.45 -3.99 -1.50
Cardinals -5.66 -7.49 1.80
Panthers -6.15 -4.66 -1.50
Jets -8.52 -9.84 1.30
Titans -10.14 -8.81 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Seahawks vs. Patriots Sept 10 13 – 10 3.90 TRUE
2 Rams vs. 49ers Sept 11 7 – 27 5.50 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Bears Sept 14 37 – 59 -5.80 TRUE
4 Bengals vs. Buccaneers Sept 14 33 – 27 4.30 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Saints Sept 14 31 – 30 8.60 TRUE
6 Texans vs. Bills Sept 14 31 – 36 0.70 FALSE
7 Colts vs. Ravens Sept 14 23 – 41 -3.30 TRUE
8 Jaguars vs. Browns Sept 14 34 – 10 6.70 TRUE
9 Steelers vs. Falcons Sept 14 20 – 13 1.00 TRUE
10 Titans vs. Jets Sept 14 10 – 23 1.00 FALSE
11 Raiders vs. Dolphins Sept 14 27 – 13 -1.70 FALSE
12 Chargers vs. Cardinals Sept 14 14 – 26 8.70 FALSE
13 Vikings vs. Packers Sept 14 39 – 22 1.10 TRUE
14 Eagles vs. Commanders Sept 14 24 – 22 5.40 TRUE
15 Giants vs. Cowboys Sept 14 28 – 20 1.00 TRUE
16 Chiefs vs. Broncos Sept 15 31 – 10 -5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bills vs. Lions Sept 18 Bills 1.50
2 Falcons vs. Panthers Sept 21 Falcons 3.90
3 Ravens vs. Saints Sept 21 Ravens 6.20
4 Bears vs. Vikings Sept 21 Vikings -1.60
5 Texans vs. Bengals Sept 21 Texans 4.10
6 Patriots vs. Steelers Sept 21 Patriots 7.80
7 Jets vs. Packers Sept 21 Packers -8.80
8 Buccaneers vs. Browns Sept 21 Browns -0.10
9 Titans vs. Eagles Sept 21 Eagles -10.40
10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Sept 21 Jaguars -3.90
11 Chargers vs. Raiders Sept 21 Chargers 3.60
12 Cardinals vs. Seahawks Sept 21 Seahawks -17.60
13 Cowboys vs. Commanders Sept 21 Commanders -0.20
14 49ers vs. Dolphins Sept 21 49ers 8.30
15 Chiefs vs. Colts Sept 21 Chiefs 3.00
16 Rams vs. Giants Sept 22 Rams 5.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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