Posts from September 2026 (29)

September 8, 2026

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.94 5.18 4.80
Canterbury 7.95 10.29 -2.30
Taranaki 6.49 7.57 -1.10
Otago 5.94 5.80 0.10
Bay of Plenty 4.55 9.80 -5.30
North Harbour 1.44 -4.18 5.60
Waikato 1.41 -0.83 2.20
Tasman 0.88 0.68 0.20
Northland 0.84 -5.96 6.80
Counties Manukau -1.10 3.63 -4.70
Auckland -2.43 -2.64 0.20
Wellington -5.04 2.70 -7.70
Manawatu -12.16 -15.05 2.90
Southland -12.52 -10.83 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sept 03 28 – 12 10.60 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sept 04 35 – 24 5.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sept 05 12 – 29 24.40 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Wellington Sept 05 42 – 28 7.30 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sept 05 14 – 36 -0.80 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sept 06 47 – 24 12.90 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Sept 06 57 – 42 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Sept 10 Taranaki -15.60
2 Otago vs. Tasman Sept 11 Otago 8.10
3 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 12 Auckland 1.70
4 Northland vs. Waikato Sept 12 Northland 2.40
5 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sept 12 Canterbury 16.00
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sept 13 Hawke’s Bay 11.50
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 13 Bay of Plenty -14.10

 

NFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 12.03 12.03 -0.00
Patriots 8.11 8.11 -0.00
Rams 6.16 6.16 0.00
Texans 5.51 5.51 -0.00
Lions 5.20 5.20 0.00
Bills 4.81 4.81 0.00
Jaguars 4.17 4.17 0.00
Broncos 4.07 4.07 -0.00
Vikings 2.79 2.79 0.00
Ravens 2.53 2.53 0.00
Packers 1.72 1.72 0.00
Bears 1.18 1.18 0.00
Chargers 1.16 1.16 0.00
Eagles 0.73 0.73 -0.00
49ers 0.63 0.63 0.00
Bengals 0.39 0.39 -0.00
Steelers -0.43 -0.43 -0.00
Colts -0.74 -0.74 -0.00
Chiefs -1.34 -1.34 0.00
Falcons -1.39 -1.39 -0.00
Giants -2.38 -2.38 0.00
Browns -2.50 -2.50 -0.00
Saints -3.38 -3.38 -0.00
Cowboys -3.42 -3.42 0.00
Buccaneers -3.95 -3.95 0.00
Dolphins -3.99 -3.99 -0.00
Commanders -4.65 -4.65 0.00
Panthers -4.66 -4.66 -0.00
Raiders -5.72 -5.72 -0.00
Cardinals -7.49 -7.49 0.00
Titans -8.81 -8.81 0.00
Jets -9.84 -9.84 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Seahawks vs. Patriots Sept 10 Seahawks 3.90
2 Rams vs. 49ers Sept 11 Rams 5.50
3 Panthers vs. Bears Sept 14 Bears -5.80
4 Bengals vs. Buccaneers Sept 14 Bengals 4.30
5 Lions vs. Saints Sept 14 Lions 8.60
6 Texans vs. Bills Sept 14 Texans 0.70
7 Colts vs. Ravens Sept 14 Ravens -3.30
8 Jaguars vs. Browns Sept 14 Jaguars 6.70
9 Steelers vs. Falcons Sept 14 Steelers 1.00
10 Titans vs. Jets Sept 14 Titans 1.00
11 Raiders vs. Dolphins Sept 14 Dolphins -1.70
12 Chargers vs. Cardinals Sept 14 Chargers 8.70
13 Vikings vs. Packers Sept 14 Vikings 1.10
14 Eagles vs. Commanders Sept 14 Eagles 5.40
15 Giants vs. Cowboys Sept 14 Giants 1.00
16 Chiefs vs. Broncos Sept 15 Broncos -5.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 14.61 9.78 4.80
Lions 9.75 14.61 -4.90
Pumas 4.32 5.36 -1.00
Cheetahs -0.37 -2.42 2.10
Boland Cavaliers -2.77 -4.25 1.50
Sharks -3.57 -4.65 1.10
Bulls -7.38 -2.24 -5.10
Stormers -8.39 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sept 06 52 – 12 4.40 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sept 07 24 – 27 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Sept 13 Griquas 13.30

 

AFL Predictions for Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 26.28 0.56 25.70
Geelong Cats 24.97 26.75 -1.80
Brisbane Lions 21.20 26.20 -5.00
Hawthorn Hawks 20.22 22.83 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 19.11 6.56 12.60
Adelaide Crows 15.04 15.32 -0.30
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Carlton Blues 6.99 -4.77 11.80
Western Bulldogs 4.93 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 213 matches played, 151 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 03 40 – 72 17.20 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Sept 04 107 – 74 2.30 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 141 – 88 9.60 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Sept 05 90 – 68 20.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Sept 11 Fremantle Dockers 5.10
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Sept 12 Brisbane Lions 17.20

 

September 6, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Almost a tradition that I miss the start of a competition. For completeness, here are the predictions. As always, the predictions are not affected at all by the fact that most of the games have already been played.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.37 12.37 -0.00
Montpellier 6.36 6.36 -0.00
Stade Francais 5.68 5.68 0.00
Stade Rochelais 4.97 4.97 0.00
Clermont 4.21 4.21 -0.00
Section Paloise 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.70 3.70 -0.00
Racing 92 3.59 3.59 0.00
Castres Olympique -0.29 -0.29 -0.00
Toulon -0.81 -0.81 0.00
Lyon -0.94 -0.94 0.00
Bayonne -2.02 -2.02 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.39 -5.39 -0.00
Vannes -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Sept 06 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Sept 06 Castres Olympique 16.20
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Sept 06 Lyon 1.30
4 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sept 06 Montpellier 8.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Sept 06 Stade Francais 17.60
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sept 06 Bordeaux Begles 6.60
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 07 Stade Toulousain -0.90

 

September 1, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 11.28 -1.18 12.50
Panthers 10.37 8.77 1.60
Dolphins 7.08 1.85 5.20
Roosters 6.37 9.50 -3.10
Sharks 6.04 7.25 -1.20
Storm 2.18 6.96 -4.80
Sea Eagles 1.10 0.21 0.90
Rabbitohs 0.85 -5.05 5.90
Bulldogs 0.36 2.13 -1.80
Knights -0.92 -14.06 13.10
Raiders -0.96 1.62 -2.60
Cowboys -2.78 -2.69 -0.10
Eels -3.48 -0.37 -3.10
Broncos -7.25 7.06 -14.30
Titans -7.82 -8.02 0.20
Wests Tigers -11.21 -7.26 -4.00
Dragons -11.23 -6.72 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 27 20 – 46 -2.20 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Aug 28 44 – 10 13.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Aug 28 24 – 10 8.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 29 22 – 42 -2.10 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 29 12 – 26 6.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 24 – 10 12.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 30 46 – 32 16.80 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 30 38 – 18 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sept 03 Bulldogs 11.60
2 Titans vs. Dolphins Sept 04 Dolphins -10.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sept 04 Roosters -9.50
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Sept 05 Warriors 14.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Sept 05 Cowboys 2.20
6 Sharks vs. Storm Sept 05 Sharks 7.90
7 Dragons vs. Eels Sept 05 Eels -3.70
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Sept 05 Panthers 21.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.30 5.18 4.10
Bay of Plenty 6.91 9.80 -2.90
Otago 6.57 5.80 0.80
Canterbury 6.56 10.29 -3.70
Taranaki 5.84 7.57 -1.70
Waikato 2.79 -0.83 3.60
Northland 1.79 -5.96 7.70
North Harbour 0.49 -4.18 4.70
Tasman 0.08 0.68 -0.60
Auckland -1.79 -2.64 0.80
Counties Manukau -1.87 3.63 -5.50
Wellington -4.24 2.70 -6.90
Southland -11.76 -10.83 -0.90
Manawatu -14.52 -15.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 21 – 36 -19.00 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 19 – 22 -6.60 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 29 40 – 26 0.30 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Waikato Aug 29 43 – 38 7.30 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Aug 29 43 – 40 -14.40 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 30 35 – 46 2.60 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 30 20 – 10 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sept 03 Taranaki 10.60
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sept 04 Hawke’s Bay 5.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sept 05 Bay of Plenty 24.40
4 Tasman vs. Wellington Sept 05 Tasman 7.30
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sept 05 Canterbury -0.80
6 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sept 06 Counties Manukau 12.90
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Sept 06 North Harbour 1.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 12.86 9.78 3.10
Lions 11.49 14.61 -3.10
Pumas 4.15 5.36 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.21 -2.42 2.20
Boland Cavaliers -2.77 -4.25 1.50
Sharks -3.57 -4.65 1.10
Bulls -7.38 -2.24 -5.10
Stormers -8.39 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Stormers Aug 29 36 – 12 22.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 29 53 – 22 4.00 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 52 – 26 5.10 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Griquas Aug 31 17 – 48 -10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sept 06 Griquas 4.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sept 07 Pumas -1.40

 

AFL Predictions for Quarter Final

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Team Ratings for Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 24.44 26.20 -1.80
Sydney Swans 23.04 0.56 22.50
Fremantle Dockers 22.75 6.56 16.20
Geelong Cats 22.64 26.75 -4.10
Hawthorn Hawks 16.57 22.83 -6.30
Adelaide Crows 14.94 15.32 -0.40
Carlton Blues 9.31 -4.77 14.10
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Western Bulldogs 5.03 26.06 -21.00
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 209 matches played, 148 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Aug 28 96 – 93 1.70 TRUE
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues Aug 29 55 – 74 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 03 Fremantle Dockers 17.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Sept 04 Geelong Cats 2.30
3 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 Sydney Swans 9.60
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Sept 05 Adelaide Crows 20.90

 

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