Top 14 Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.18 | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.78 | 6.21 | 0.60 |
| La Rochelle | 6.40 | 2.32 | 4.10 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.16 | 3.22 | 1.90 |
| RC Toulonnais | 4.55 | 3.56 | 1.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.73 | 5.61 | -1.90 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.49 | 2.83 | 0.70 |
| Montpellier | 1.19 | 2.30 | -1.10 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.38 | -3.22 | 2.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -2.53 | -0.47 | -2.10 |
| Brive | -3.43 | -3.26 | -0.20 |
| Section Paloise | -4.02 | -4.48 | 0.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -5.90 | -4.13 | -1.80 |
| SU Agen | -12.67 | -4.72 | -7.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 100 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 24 | 59 – 19 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Jan 23 | 40 – 3 | 16.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby | Jan 24 | 16 – 21 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jan 24 | 32 – 33 | 9.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris | Jan 25 | 35 – 13 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Brive | Jan 25 | 27 – 32 | 5.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 24 | 0 – 59 | -12.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen | Jan 31 | Aviron Bayonnais | 11.70 |
| 2 | Brive vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 31 | RC Toulonnais | -2.40 |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jan 30 | Clermont Auvergne | 6.70 |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 01 | La Rochelle | 4.30 |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise | Jan 31 | Lyon Rugby | 12.50 |
| 6 | Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 30 | Racing-Metro 92 | -0.10 |
| 7 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 01 | Stade Francais Paris | 7.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »