July 27, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 22.69 14.53 8.20
Panthers 12.30 8.88 3.40
Rabbitohs 9.52 7.73 1.80
Eels 9.43 1.68 7.70
Sea Eagles 8.42 -4.77 13.20
Roosters 4.24 10.25 -6.00
Raiders -0.76 6.98 -7.70
Sharks -3.08 -0.76 -2.30
Titans -3.17 -7.22 4.10
Wests Tigers -5.03 -3.07 -2.00
Warriors -5.93 -1.84 -4.10
Dragons -6.63 -4.95 -1.70
Knights -7.36 -2.61 -4.80
Cowboys -10.24 -8.05 -2.20
Broncos -12.93 -11.16 -1.80
Bulldogs -13.45 -7.62 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Raiders Jul 22 10 – 12 12.80 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 23 28 – 8 9.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 23 16 – 20 -35.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 24 60 – 22 10.80 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 44 – 24 12.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 24 18 – 12 25.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 25 10 – 32 -3.20 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 25 24 – 44 -8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 29 Eels -5.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 30 Wests Tigers 0.90
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Jul 30 Broncos 0.30
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 31 Rabbitohs -16.10
5 Knights vs. Raiders Jul 31 Raiders -6.60
6 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 31 Storm 10.40
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 01 Titans -13.30
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 01 Sea Eagles -11.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »