United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 11.12 | 10.00 | 1.10 |
| Leinster | 11.09 | 12.13 | -1.00 |
| Glasgow | 7.28 | 6.47 | 0.80 |
| Stormers | 7.08 | 6.49 | 0.60 |
| Sharks | 3.27 | 2.16 | 1.10 |
| Munster | 1.63 | 1.25 | 0.40 |
| Lions | 1.35 | 1.48 | -0.10 |
| Connacht | 0.87 | 2.62 | -1.70 |
| Edinburgh | 0.15 | -2.55 | 2.70 |
| Ulster | -0.36 | -0.32 | -0.00 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -2.45 | -1.63 | -0.80 |
| Ospreys | -3.87 | -3.35 | -0.50 |
| Scarlets | -5.89 | -3.47 | -2.40 |
| Benetton | -6.76 | -6.67 | -0.10 |
| Dragons | -8.91 | -10.04 | 1.10 |
| Zebre | -15.58 | -14.56 | -1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Oct 10 | 31 – 38 | -1.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Connacht | Oct 10 | 36 – 19 | 10.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Lions | Oct 11 | 57 – 15 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Oct 11 | 39 – 22 | 4.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Oct 11 | 12 – 29 | -8.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Benetton | Oct 11 | 27 – 26 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Ulster vs. Munster | Oct 11 | 26 – 26 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby | Oct 11 | 29 – 5 | 17.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks | Oct 24 | Sharks | -0.20 |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Zebre | Oct 24 | Connacht | 21.90 |
| 3 | Edinburgh vs. Lions | Oct 24 | Edinburgh | 4.30 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Ulster | Oct 25 | Bulls | 17.00 |
| 5 | Benetton vs. Glasgow | Oct 25 | Glasgow | -8.50 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Scarlets | Oct 25 | Stormers | 18.50 |
| 7 | Leinster vs. Munster | Oct 25 | Leinster | 12.00 |
| 8 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Oct 25 | Ospreys | 7.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »