Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.46 | 12.37 | -1.90 |
| Montpellier | 7.75 | 6.36 | 1.40 |
| Section Paloise | 5.53 | 4.18 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.89 | 3.70 | 1.20 |
| Stade Francais | 4.08 | 5.68 | -1.60 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.79 | 4.97 | -1.20 |
| Clermont | 2.63 | 4.21 | -1.60 |
| Racing 92 | 1.79 | 3.59 | -1.80 |
| Toulon | 1.01 | -0.81 | 1.80 |
| Lyon | 0.77 | -0.94 | 1.70 |
| Bayonne | -0.90 | -2.02 | 1.10 |
| Castres Olympique | -2.07 | -0.29 | -1.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.42 | -5.39 | -0.00 |
| Vannes | -8.70 | -10.00 | 1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Nov 08 | 28 – 30 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Lyon | Nov 08 | 21 – 19 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 08 | 63 – 26 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne | Nov 08 | 22 – 18 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Nov 08 | 28 – 18 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Nov 08 | 43 – 23 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 08 | 23 – 14 | -8.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 29 | Bayonne | 7.70 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Nov 29 | Bordeaux Begles | 3.60 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 29 | Stade Toulousain | -3.20 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Nov 29 | Racing 92 | 2.80 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Vannes | Nov 29 | Stade Francais | 19.30 |
| 6 | Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 29 | Stade Rochelais | 15.70 |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Nov 30 | Clermont | 8.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »