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April 23, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.35 12.20 2.20
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 13.24 18.86 -5.60
Brumbies 6.31 6.52 -0.20
Reds 2.26 0.07 2.20
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Western Force -6.91 -6.15 -0.80
Fijian Drua -7.73 -9.21 1.50
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 15 – 38 -15.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 31 – 0 6.50 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 46 – 7 11.00 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 37 – 15 -17.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 Crusaders 22.10
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 Chiefs -10.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 Fijian Drua 9.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 Hurricanes -2.00
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 Highlanders 10.90
6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 Blues -7.10

 

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April 16, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.58 18.86 -4.30
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 12.94 9.73 3.20
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.36 0.07 1.30
Highlanders -0.13 1.17 -1.30
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 17 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 43 – 40 -12.90 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 36 – 23 1.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 47 – 31 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -15.30
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Reds 6.50
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Blues 11.00
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 Crusaders -17.80

 

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April 9, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 13.80 13.21 0.60
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.69 -1.90 -0.80
Rebels -4.51 -4.59 0.10
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.59 -10.80 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 50 – 3 24.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 41 – 20 4.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 68 – 12 27.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 40 – 16 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 Reds -9.50
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 Crusaders -12.90
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 Hurricanes 1.60
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 Highlanders -0.00

 

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April 2, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 12.78 13.21 -0.40
Blues 12.51 12.20 0.30
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 6.80 6.52 0.30
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.18 -1.90 -0.30
Rebels -5.17 -4.59 -0.60
Fijian Drua -6.71 -9.21 2.50
Western Force -7.41 -6.15 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -11.56 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 37 – 26 4.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 21 – 27 7.10 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 31 – 13 2.40 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 8 – 47 -19.60 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 12 – 47 -6.90 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 19 – 20 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 Blues 24.90
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 Rebels 4.50
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 Chiefs 27.30
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Brumbies 12.00

 

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March 26, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 18.86 -4.10
Chiefs 13.23 13.21 0.00
Blues 11.76 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 11.44 9.73 1.70
Brumbies 6.88 6.52 0.40
Reds 1.81 0.07 1.70
Highlanders 1.52 1.17 0.40
Waratahs -1.64 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -5.72 -4.59 -1.10
Western Force -6.78 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -7.34 -9.21 1.90
Moana Pasifika -10.81 -10.80 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 54 – 28 21.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 60 – 21 21.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 39 – 36 -3.60 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 28 – 21 15.50 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 26 – 6 -1.60 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 40 – 31 -6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Crusaders 4.50
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 Waratahs 7.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 Fijian Drua 2.40
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 Blues -19.60
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -6.90
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 Brumbies -2.10

 

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March 21, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.58 18.86 -3.30
Chiefs 13.61 13.21 0.40
Hurricanes 11.13 9.73 1.40
Blues 10.94 12.20 -1.30
Brumbies 6.18 6.52 -0.30
Reds 2.45 0.07 2.40
Highlanders 1.13 1.17 -0.00
Waratahs -1.17 -1.90 0.70
Rebels -5.41 -4.59 -0.80
Western Force -7.42 -6.15 -1.30
Fijian Drua -7.81 -9.21 1.40
Moana Pasifika -10.11 -10.80 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 10 – 14 8.50 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 15 26 – 53 -3.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 14 – 22 9.00 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Mar 16 21 – 27 0.90 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Mar 16 46 – 29 27.30 TRUE
6 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 16 10 – 12 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 Hurricanes 21.50
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 Brumbies 21.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 Waratahs -3.60
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 Chiefs 15.50
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 Crusaders -1.60
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 Reds -6.90

 

March 11, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.11 18.86 -2.70
Chiefs 14.07 13.21 0.90
Blues 11.36 12.20 -0.80
Hurricanes 10.60 9.73 0.90
Brumbies 5.70 6.52 -0.80
Highlanders 1.62 1.17 0.50
Reds 1.56 0.07 1.50
Waratahs -1.59 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -4.52 -4.59 0.10
Western Force -6.75 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -8.26 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -10.79 -10.80 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 23 – 29 -0.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 21 – 23 2.40 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 20 – 10 -21.60 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 22 – 19 16.60 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 29 – 21 1.30 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 25 – 19 -8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Crusaders 8.50
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 15 Reds -3.10
3 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 Western Force 9.00
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Highlanders 0.90
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Mar 16 Chiefs 27.30
6 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 16 Blues -7.90

 

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March 5, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 18.86 -1.60
Chiefs 14.67 13.21 1.50
Blues 11.83 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 10.13 9.73 0.40
Brumbies 6.26 6.52 -0.30
Highlanders 1.31 1.17 0.10
Reds 0.96 0.07 0.90
Waratahs -1.28 -1.90 0.60
Rebels -4.90 -4.59 -0.30
Western Force -7.31 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.37 -9.21 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.40 -10.80 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 37 -10.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 48 – 34 4.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 39 – 36 -1.70 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 24 – 37 20.80 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 46 – 12 6.40 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 38 – 33 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 Rebels -0.50
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Waratahs 2.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 Crusaders -21.60
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 Brumbies 16.60
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 Hurricanes 1.30
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -8.70

 

February 27, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.39 18.86 -0.50
Chiefs 13.68 13.21 0.50
Blues 12.03 12.20 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.47 9.73 0.70
Brumbies 7.25 6.52 0.70
Highlanders 1.10 1.17 -0.10
Reds 0.62 0.07 0.50
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -5.33 -4.59 -0.70
Western Force -6.89 -6.15 -0.70
Fijian Drua -9.04 -9.21 0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -10.80 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 33 – 29 -2.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 3 – 30 -8.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 14 – 44 -10.90 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 34 – 10 26.40 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 35 – 21 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 40 – 22 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -10.90
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 Rebels 4.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 Fijian Drua -1.70
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 Crusaders 20.80
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 Chiefs 6.40
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 Hurricanes 9.90

 

February 20, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.86 18.86 0.00
Chiefs 13.21 13.21 0.00
Blues 12.20 12.20 0.00
Hurricanes 9.73 9.73 0.00
Brumbies 6.52 6.52 -0.00
Highlanders 1.17 1.17 0.00
Reds 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Waratahs -1.90 -1.90 0.00
Rebels -4.59 -4.59 0.00
Western Force -6.15 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -9.21 -9.21 0.00
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -10.80 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 Crusaders -2.60
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 Brumbies -8.10
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 Hurricanes -10.90
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 Blues 26.40
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 Reds 5.00

 

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