Search results for super rugby (170)

February 27, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.39 18.86 -0.50
Chiefs 13.68 13.21 0.50
Blues 12.03 12.20 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.47 9.73 0.70
Brumbies 7.25 6.52 0.70
Highlanders 1.10 1.17 -0.10
Reds 0.62 0.07 0.50
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -5.33 -4.59 -0.70
Western Force -6.89 -6.15 -0.70
Fijian Drua -9.04 -9.21 0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -10.80 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 33 – 29 -2.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 3 – 30 -8.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 14 – 44 -10.90 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 34 – 10 26.40 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 35 – 21 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 40 – 22 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -10.90
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 Rebels 4.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 Fijian Drua -1.70
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 Crusaders 20.80
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 Chiefs 6.40
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 Hurricanes 9.90

 

February 20, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.86 18.86 0.00
Chiefs 13.21 13.21 0.00
Blues 12.20 12.20 0.00
Hurricanes 9.73 9.73 0.00
Brumbies 6.52 6.52 -0.00
Highlanders 1.17 1.17 0.00
Reds 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Waratahs -1.90 -1.90 0.00
Rebels -4.59 -4.59 0.00
Western Force -6.15 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -9.21 -9.21 0.00
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -10.80 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 Crusaders -2.60
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 Brumbies -8.10
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 Hurricanes -10.90
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 Blues 26.40
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 Reds 5.00

 

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June 20, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.49 17.95 0.50
Chiefs 13.09 8.81 4.30
Blues 12.17 12.34 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.03 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.45 6.64 -0.20
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.05 1.89 -1.90
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -9.21 -10.50 1.30
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 16 52 – 15 7.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 17 19 – 6 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 24 Crusaders -1.90

 

June 13, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.44 17.95 -0.50
Blues 13.22 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 13.03 8.81 4.20
Hurricanes 10.03 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.51 6.64 -0.10
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.05 1.89 -1.90
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -9.21 -10.50 1.30
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jun 09 41 – 12 20.00 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 10 29 – 20 19.50 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Jun 10 49 – 8 31.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 37 – 33 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 16 Crusaders 7.70
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 17 Chiefs 12.00

 

June 6, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.01 17.95 -0.90
Chiefs 13.48 8.81 4.70
Blues 12.81 12.34 0.50
Hurricanes 10.19 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 6.35 6.64 -0.30
Highlanders 1.30 5.04 -3.70
Reds -0.51 1.89 -2.40
Waratahs -1.68 -2.50 0.80
Rebels -4.61 -6.19 1.60
Western Force -6.15 -5.54 -0.60
Fijian Drua -8.77 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -8.91 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 02 16 – 9 15.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 02 33 – 17 14.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Jun 03 41 – 17 -6.90 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 03 27 – 26 -3.80 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Jun 03 24 – 33 16.50 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Chiefs Jun 04 19 – 43 -13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jun 09 Blues 20.00
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 10 Chiefs 19.50
3 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Jun 10 Crusaders 31.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 Brumbies 1.70

 

May 30, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.26 17.95 -0.70
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Chiefs 13.01 8.81 4.20
Hurricanes 9.95 9.59 0.40
Brumbies 6.23 6.64 -0.40
Highlanders 0.90 5.04 -4.10
Reds 0.58 1.89 -1.30
Waratahs -0.74 -2.50 1.80
Rebels -4.49 -6.19 1.70
Western Force -5.68 -5.54 -0.10
Fijian Drua -9.86 -10.50 0.60
Moana Pasifika -11.73 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 26 35 – 30 6.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force May 26 52 – 14 2.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 27 47 – 46 8.00 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 27 42 – 18 23.40 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 27 36 – 25 6.30 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Chiefs May 27 21 – 31 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 02 Blues 15.80
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 02 Brumbies 14.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Jun 03 Reds -6.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 03 Crusaders -3.80
5 Waratahs vs. Moana Pasifika Jun 03 Waratahs 16.50
6 Western Force vs. Chiefs Jun 04 Chiefs -13.20

 

May 23, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 17.95 -0.70
Blues 12.97 12.34 0.60
Chiefs 12.59 8.81 3.80
Hurricanes 10.19 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 6.65 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 0.97 5.04 -4.10
Reds 0.51 1.89 -1.40
Waratahs -0.70 -2.50 1.80
Western Force -4.45 -5.54 1.10
Rebels -5.71 -6.19 0.50
Fijian Drua -9.53 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -8.91 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders May 19 7 – 41 -25.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Blues May 19 26 – 45 -5.90 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 20 20 – 17 13.10 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 20 23 – 12 5.30 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua May 20 32 – 18 12.10 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 20 34 – 19 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 26 Highlanders 6.00
2 Rebels vs. Western Force May 26 Rebels 2.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 27 Fijian Drua 8.00
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 27 Crusaders 23.40
5 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 27 Blues 6.30
6 Brumbies vs. Chiefs May 27 Chiefs -0.40

 

May 16, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.81 17.95 -1.10
Blues 12.42 12.34 0.10
Chiefs 12.31 8.81 3.50
Hurricanes 10.47 9.59 0.90
Brumbies 7.55 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 1.42 5.04 -3.60
Reds 1.06 1.89 -0.80
Waratahs -0.84 -2.50 1.70
Western Force -5.35 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.16 -6.19 0.00
Fijian Drua -9.39 -10.50 1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.66 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 22 – 25 18.40 FALSE
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 71 – 22 23.80 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 15 – 3 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 38 – 20 7.90 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 48 – 32 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -25.00
2 Reds vs. Blues May 19 Blues -5.90
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 20 Highlanders 13.10
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 20 Chiefs 5.30
5 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua May 20 Waratahs 12.10
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 20 Brumbies -9.40

 

May 9, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.57 17.95 -1.40
Chiefs 13.12 8.81 4.30
Blues 12.65 12.34 0.30
Hurricanes 9.54 9.59 -0.10
Brumbies 7.31 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 1.66 5.04 -3.40
Reds 0.25 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.28 -2.50 1.20
Rebels -5.71 -6.19 0.50
Western Force -5.92 -5.54 -0.40
Fijian Drua -8.83 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -8.91 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 28 – 52 -6.60 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 27 – 24 -14.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 48 – 13 27.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 31 – 30 28.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 24 – 32 6.20 FALSE
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 26 – 33 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 Chiefs 18.40
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 Western Force 6.40
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 Hurricanes 23.80
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 Crusaders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 Waratahs 7.90
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 Brumbies 11.10

 

May 2, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.21 17.95 -1.70
Blues 13.66 12.34 1.30
Chiefs 12.43 8.81 3.60
Hurricanes 10.23 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 7.51 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 2.35 5.04 -2.70
Reds 0.83 1.89 -1.10
Waratahs -1.87 -2.50 0.60
Western Force -5.56 -5.54 -0.00
Rebels -5.92 -6.19 0.30
Fijian Drua -9.51 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.73 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 28 32 – 27 8.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 21 – 20 1.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Blues Apr 29 14 – 30 -17.90 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Apr 29 33 – 43 0.60 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 34 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
6 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 29 31 – 17 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 Chiefs -6.60
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 Hurricanes -14.20
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 Crusaders 27.30
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 Blues 28.90
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 Reds 6.20
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 Brumbies -9.90

 

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