Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

November 2, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.88 15.13 -0.20
Auckland 9.71 6.75 3.00
Wellington 6.61 6.47 0.10
Bay of Plenty 5.65 8.21 -2.60
North Harbour 4.62 2.87 1.70
Canterbury 4.38 8.40 -4.00
Waikato 3.13 1.31 1.80
Hawke’s Bay 1.60 0.91 0.70
Otago -1.06 -4.03 3.00
Taranaki -3.90 -4.42 0.50
Northland -9.02 -8.71 -0.30
Counties Manukau -10.56 -8.18 -2.40
Southland -11.86 -14.04 2.20
Manawatu -14.06 -10.57 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Otago Oct 30 16 – 23 10.70 FALSE
2 Wellington vs. Tasman Oct 31 3 – 19 -3.60 TRUE
3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 31 8 – 24 -9.70 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 31 31 – 10 7.80 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 01 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Nov 01 24 – 12 -1.00 FALSE
7 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Nov 01 27 – 31 11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Otago Nov 06 Otago -7.80
2 Auckland vs. Northland Nov 07 Auckland 21.70
3 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Nov 07 North Harbour 18.20
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Nov 07 Tasman 13.50
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Nov 08 Wellington -2.00
6 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 08 Waikato 0.50
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Nov 08 Taranaki -7.20

 

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October 27, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.03 15.13 -1.10
Auckland 8.82 6.75 2.10
Wellington 7.46 6.47 1.00
Bay of Plenty 5.91 8.21 -2.30
Canterbury 5.54 8.40 -2.90
North Harbour 4.14 2.87 1.30
Waikato 4.02 1.31 2.70
Hawke’s Bay 1.34 0.91 0.40
Otago -2.21 -4.03 1.80
Taranaki -2.86 -4.42 1.60
Northland -8.54 -8.71 0.20
Southland -10.98 -14.04 3.10
Counties Manukau -11.60 -8.18 -3.40
Manawatu -14.94 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Oct 23 30 – 7 7.20 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 24 44 – 8 -0.90 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 24 47 – 12 16.90 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 24 23 – 22 -2.20 FALSE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 25 20 – 53 -13.60 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 25 47 – 10 26.50 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 25 27 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Otago Oct 30 Canterbury 10.70
2 Wellington vs. Tasman Oct 31 Tasman -3.60
3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 31 North Harbour -9.70
4 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 31 Auckland 7.80
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 01 Bay of Plenty 7.60
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Nov 01 Southland -1.00
7 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Nov 01 Taranaki 11.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.00 16.52 0.50
Munster 9.21 9.90 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 5.26 5.66 -0.40
Ulster 5.09 4.58 0.50
Edinburgh 4.18 5.49 -1.30
Scarlets 2.38 1.98 0.40
Cardiff Blues 1.19 0.08 1.10
Connacht 1.08 0.70 0.40
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.94 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -3.87 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.57 -15.37 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 24 63 – 8 37.70 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Scarlets Oct 24 3 – 10 1.80 FALSE
3 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 25 23 – 15 -1.60 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Dragons Oct 26 40 – 17 19.60 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Oct 26 26 – 37 11.20 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 27 38 – 27 15.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Munster Nov 02 Munster -11.30
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Nov 02 Connacht 11.50
3 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Nov 02 Scarlets 4.70
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Ulster Nov 03 Cardiff Blues 2.60
5 Zebre vs. Ospreys Nov 03 Ospreys -7.10
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Nov 03 Leinster -5.20

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 1.46 4.01 -2.50
Stormers 0.54 1.00 -0.50
Bulls -0.57 -1.45 0.90
Lions -3.76 -4.82 1.10
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Pumas -10.19 -10.00 -0.20
Griquas -10.31 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Stormers Oct 23 37 – 42 -6.50 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 24 41 – 14 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 30 Lions 11.10
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Oct 31 Sharks -7.10
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Oct 31 Bulls 3.40

 

October 20, 2020

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 3.27 4.01 -0.70
Stormers 0.68 1.00 -0.30
Bulls -2.38 -1.45 -0.90
Lions -3.76 -4.82 1.10
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Griquas -10.31 -10.00 -0.30
Pumas -10.33 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Oct 10 19 – 17 -2.30 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 11 21 – 27 6.20 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Lions Oct 11 23 – 17 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Stormers Oct 23 Stormers -6.50
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 24 Lions 9.20
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 24 Sharks -1.20

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 3.27 4.01 -0.70
Stormers 1.00 1.00 0.00
Bulls -1.99 -1.45 -0.50
Lions -4.08 -4.82 0.70
Cheetahs -8.82 -10.00 1.20
Griquas -9.46 -10.00 0.50
Pumas -11.18 -10.00 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 17 19 – 16 13.30 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Oct 18 53 – 31 4.50 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 18 30 – 23 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Oct 10 Bulls -2.30
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 11 Griquas 6.20
3 Stormers vs. Lions Oct 11 Stormers 9.60

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

Another competition where I missed the start. I am surprised my South African readers didn’t alert me, or perhaps it crept up on them. I had been checking on whether the Currie Cup would be running but hadn’t got wind of this competition.

As before when I have missed the start, for completeness I will post my predictions for the games missed.

Note that there are difficulties with this competition due to the presence of three teams without recent Super Rugby results. I have followed my usual practice of assigning a rating of -10 in such cases. (As was done with the Force in Super Rugby Australia for example.)

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.01 4.01 0.00
Stormers 1.00 1.00 0.00
Bulls -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Lions -4.82 -4.82 0.00
Cheetahs -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Griquas -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Pumas -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 17 Sharks 13.30
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Oct 18 Cheetahs 4.50
3 Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 18 Bulls 13.10

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.32 12.73 1.60
Roosters 10.25 12.25 -2.00
Panthers 9.10 -0.13 9.20
Rabbitohs 7.73 2.85 4.90
Raiders 6.98 7.06 -0.10
Eels 1.68 2.80 -1.10
Sharks -0.76 1.81 -2.60
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Knights -2.61 -5.92 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Raiders Oct 16 30 – 10 5.90 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Oct 17 20 – 16 3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Oct 25 Storm -3.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 13.29 15.13 -1.80
Auckland 9.08 6.75 2.30
Canterbury 7.68 8.40 -0.70
Wellington 6.22 6.47 -0.20
Waikato 4.31 1.31 3.00
North Harbour 3.87 2.87 1.00
Bay of Plenty 3.76 8.21 -4.40
Hawke’s Bay 0.17 0.91 -0.70
Taranaki -3.15 -4.42 1.30
Otago -3.26 -4.03 0.80
Northland -7.50 -8.71 1.20
Southland -10.24 -14.04 3.80
Counties Manukau -10.36 -8.18 -2.20
Manawatu -13.77 -10.57 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 16 33 – 17 9.70 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 35 – 53 -13.90 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 17 31 – 10 -4.30 FALSE
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Oct 17 9 – 17 -3.40 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 18 15 – 16 7.60 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 18 40 – 22 8.80 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 18 25 – 20 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Oct 23 Otago 7.20
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 24 Canterbury -0.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 24 Hawke’s Bay 16.90
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 24 Auckland -2.20
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 25 Wellington -13.60
6 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 25 Tasman 26.50
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 25 Waikato 10.50

 

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October 13, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 8.78 0.31 8.50
Exeter Chiefs 8.09 7.99 0.10
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Saracens 6.51 9.34 -2.80
Bristol 2.96 -2.77 5.70
Bath 2.89 1.10 1.80
Harlequins -0.67 -0.81 0.10
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.87 -1.76 -6.10
London Irish -9.98 -5.51 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Oct 11 35 – 6 7.50 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Bristol Oct 11 47 – 24 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Oct 25 Wasps -0.70

 

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