Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 13, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.34 16.52 -0.20
Munster 9.59 9.90 -0.30
Glasgow Warriors 5.70 5.66 0.00
Edinburgh 4.97 5.49 -0.50
Ulster 4.79 4.58 0.20
Scarlets 1.58 1.98 -0.40
Cardiff Blues 0.81 0.08 0.70
Connacht 0.29 0.70 -0.40
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.37 -2.82 0.40
Treviso -3.08 -3.50 0.40
Dragons -8.33 -7.85 -0.50
Zebre -14.90 -15.37 0.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 10 26 – 18 14.20 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Leinster Oct 11 25 – 37 -13.10 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Ulster Oct 11 12 – 24 0.40 FALSE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Oct 11 29 – 7 5.80 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 25 – 23 12.00 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 12 20 – 7 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 24 Leinster 37.70
2 Treviso vs. Scarlets Oct 24 Treviso 1.80
3 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 25 Glasgow Warriors -1.60
4 Ulster vs. Dragons Oct 26 Ulster 19.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Oct 26 Edinburgh 11.20
6 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 27 Munster 15.30

 

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.59 12.73 0.90
Roosters 10.25 12.25 -2.00
Panthers 9.02 -0.13 9.20
Rabbitohs 7.81 2.85 5.00
Raiders 7.70 7.06 0.60
Eels 1.68 2.80 -1.10
Sharks -0.76 1.81 -2.60
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Knights -2.61 -5.92 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 166 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Oct 09 18 – 22 5.60 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Oct 10 24 – 38 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Raiders Oct 16 Storm 5.90
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Oct 17 Panthers 3.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 8.31 8.40 -0.10
Auckland 7.53 6.75 0.80
Wellington 6.26 6.47 -0.20
North Harbour 3.83 2.87 1.00
Waikato 3.69 1.31 2.40
Bay of Plenty 3.43 8.21 -4.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.30 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.52 -4.42 0.90
Otago -3.92 -4.03 0.10
Northland -7.03 -8.71 1.70
Counties Manukau -9.70 -8.18 -1.50
Southland -9.88 -14.04 4.20
Manawatu -13.44 -10.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 09 10 – 34 -17.80 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 10 28 – 29 -9.20 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 10 34 – 35 15.30 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 10 36 – 13 15.20 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 46 – 10 3.30 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 33 – 7 12.60 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Southland Oct 11 18 – 14 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 16 Hawke’s Bay 9.70
2 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Bay of Plenty -13.90
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 17 Tasman -4.30
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Oct 17 Taranaki -3.40
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 18 Canterbury 7.60
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 18 Otago 8.80
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 18 Wellington 5.40

 

October 10, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 8.02 0.31 7.70
Exeter Chiefs 7.01 7.99 -1.00
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Saracens 6.51 9.34 -2.80
Bath 3.97 1.10 2.90
Bristol 3.72 -2.77 6.50
Harlequins -0.67 -0.81 0.10
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.87 -1.76 -6.10
London Irish -9.98 -5.51 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 26 – 32 -2.10 TRUE
2 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 05 7 – 36 -7.00 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 05 17 – 17 8.00 FALSE
4 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 46 – 5 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Oct 11 Exeter Chiefs 7.50
2 Wasps vs. Bristol Oct 11 Wasps 8.80

 

October 7, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.44 16.52 -0.10
Munster 10.04 9.90 0.10
Glasgow Warriors 5.44 5.66 -0.20
Edinburgh 4.52 5.49 -1.00
Ulster 4.26 4.58 -0.30
Scarlets 1.84 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 0.92 0.70 0.20
Cardiff Blues 0.17 0.08 0.10
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.85 -2.82 1.00
Treviso -3.18 -3.50 0.30
Dragons -7.77 -7.85 0.10
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.46 -15.37 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 03 6 – 16 -8.90 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Treviso Oct 03 35 – 24 14.60 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Dragons Oct 03 35 – 5 30.90 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 04 27 – 30 -1.40 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 04 28 – 24 1.50 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Oct 04 10 – 25 14.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 10 Dragons 14.20
2 Treviso vs. Leinster Oct 11 Leinster -13.10
3 Ospreys vs. Ulster Oct 11 Ospreys 0.40
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Oct 11 Cardiff Blues 5.80
5 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 Munster 12.00
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 12 Glasgow Warriors 10.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

Yes, the games have already been played but these are my predictions posted here for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 16.52 0.00
Munster 9.90 9.90 -0.00
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Edinburgh 5.49 5.49 0.00
Ulster 4.58 4.58 -0.00
Scarlets 1.98 1.98 -0.00
Connacht 0.70 0.70 -0.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.08 0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.82 -2.82 -0.00
Treviso -3.50 -3.50 0.00
Dragons -7.85 -7.85 0.00
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.37 -15.37 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 03 Cardiff Blues -8.90
2 Ulster vs. Treviso Oct 03 Ulster 14.60
3 Leinster vs. Dragons Oct 03 Leinster 30.90
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 04 Munster -1.40
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 04 Connacht 1.50
6 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Oct 04 Edinburgh 14.80

 

October 6, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

OK, so this is late, with only one game to play. It has been a crazy time trying to keep up with changes to fixtures. The Gloucester versus Northampton game was forfeited by Northampton and the result given to Gloucester 20-0. I think I will follow FlashScore on that game and ignore the allocated result.

I have also missed the start of the Pro14. I haven’t even sorted out the fixtures for that yet, or chosen parameters, but will catch up tomorrow I hope.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.81 7.99 0.80
Saracens 6.98 9.34 -2.40
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Wasps 6.21 0.31 5.90
Bath 3.51 1.10 2.40
Bristol 2.62 -2.77 5.40
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Harlequins -0.99 -0.81 -0.20
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.56 -1.76 -5.80
London Irish -8.88 -5.51 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Sep 23 31 – 20 8.30 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 29 40 – 3 12.20 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Sep 30 19 – 22 24.90 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Wasps Oct 01 23 – 32 -1.80 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 01 14 – 34 -4.70 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens Oct 01 40 – 27 -11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Oct 05 Gloucester 7.70
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Harlequins -2.10
3 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 05 Bristol -7.00
4 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 08 Sale Sharks 18.10
5 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 05 Saracens 8.00
6 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 Wasps 1.90

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.59 12.73 0.90
Roosters 10.80 12.25 -1.40
Panthers 9.02 -0.13 9.20
Rabbitohs 7.20 2.85 4.40
Raiders 7.16 7.06 0.10
Eels 2.29 2.80 -0.50
Sharks -0.76 1.81 -2.60
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Knights -2.61 -5.92 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Oct 02 29 – 28 0.00 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Oct 03 32 – 20 9.50 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Oct 03 36 – 24 11.10 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Oct 04 46 – 20 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Oct 09 Roosters 5.60
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Oct 10 Rabbitohs -2.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 13.94 15.13 -1.20
Auckland 8.13 6.75 1.40
Canterbury 7.84 8.40 -0.60
Wellington 7.33 6.47 0.90
Bay of Plenty 4.33 8.21 -3.90
Waikato 3.12 1.31 1.80
North Harbour 1.89 2.87 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay 1.64 0.91 0.70
Taranaki -4.12 -4.42 0.30
Otago -4.99 -4.03 -1.00
Northland -6.79 -8.71 1.90
Counties Manukau -9.13 -8.18 -1.00
Southland -10.11 -14.04 3.90
Manawatu -12.96 -10.57 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Oct 02 16 – 20 -0.20 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Oct 03 36 – 30 7.00 TRUE
3 Northland vs. Taranaki Oct 03 35 – 25 -1.20 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Oct 03 31 – 26 3.10 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 04 40 – 24 -12.50 FALSE
6 Southland vs. Waikato Oct 04 9 – 10 -11.70 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 9 – 28 -1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 09 Canterbury -17.80
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 10 Auckland -9.20
3 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 10 Wellington 15.30
4 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 10 Waikato 15.20
5 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 North Harbour 3.30
6 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 Tasman 12.60
7 Northland vs. Southland Oct 11 Northland 6.30

 

September 29, 2020

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.50 12.73 0.80
Roosters 10.89 12.25 -1.40
Panthers 8.92 -0.13 9.10
Raiders 6.96 7.06 -0.10
Rabbitohs 6.41 2.85 3.60
Eels 2.38 2.80 -0.40
Sharks -0.56 1.81 -2.40
Knights -1.82 -5.92 4.10
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 24 32 – 16 -2.90 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Knights Sep 25 36 – 6 -6.40 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 25 60 – 8 -6.70 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Sep 26 0 – 42 -12.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 26 28 – 38 -4.80 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 26 24 – 28 -5.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sep 27 28 – 40 3.10 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Storm Sep 27 30 – 22 -18.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Oct 02 Panthers 0.00
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Oct 03 Raiders 9.50
3 Storm vs. Eels Oct 03 Storm 11.10
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Oct 04 Rabbitohs 10.20

 

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