Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

November 17, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.35 7.35 0.00
Wasps 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Sale Sharks 4.96 4.96 -0.00
Bath 2.14 2.14 0.00
Bristol 1.28 1.28 -0.00
Gloucester -1.02 -1.02 0.00
Harlequins -1.08 -1.08 -0.00
Northampton Saints -2.48 -2.48 0.00
Worcester Warriors -5.71 -5.71 0.00
Leicester Tigers -6.14 -6.14 -0.00
London Irish -8.05 -8.05 -0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 21 Exeter Chiefs -3.90
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 21 Sale Sharks 11.90
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 21 Bath 16.60
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 22 Gloucester -0.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Nov 22 Worcester Warriors 6.80
6 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 23 Wasps 8.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.93 16.52 2.40
Munster 9.02 9.90 -0.90
Ulster 7.30 4.58 2.70
Edinburgh 4.77 5.49 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 3.90 5.66 -1.80
Scarlets 1.43 1.98 -0.60
Cardiff Blues 0.55 0.08 0.50
Connacht 0.54 0.70 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.72 -2.82 0.10
Treviso -4.48 -3.50 -1.00
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.18 -15.37 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Scarlets Nov 15 14 – 20 6.70 FALSE
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Nov 16 38 – 22 18.70 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Ulster Nov 17 14 – 57 -14.10 TRUE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Nov 17 22 – 5 10.30 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 17 50 – 10 19.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Connacht Nov 23 Connacht -9.20
2 Ospreys vs. Treviso Nov 23 Ospreys 8.30
3 Leinster vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 23 Leinster 24.90
4 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 23 Ulster 12.40
5 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 24 Edinburgh -7.00
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Nov 24 Glasgow Warriors 1.40

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.99 15.13 -3.10
Auckland 8.58 6.75 1.80
Canterbury 6.78 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.97 8.21 -2.20
Wellington 5.73 6.47 -0.70
North Harbour 5.23 2.87 2.40
Hawke’s Bay 2.56 0.91 1.70
Waikato 1.63 1.31 0.30
Otago -2.13 -4.03 1.90
Taranaki -3.06 -4.42 1.40
Northland -6.67 -8.71 2.00
Counties Manukau -10.75 -8.18 -2.60
Southland -10.78 -14.04 3.30
Manawatu -14.98 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Nov 13 25 – 17 2.10 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Waikato Nov 14 28 – 17 -7.70 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Tasman Nov 14 20 – 26 -12.00 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Manawatu Nov 14 31 – 5 23.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Nov 15 37 – 33 3.70 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 15 33 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
7 Canterbury vs. Auckland Nov 15 34 – 33 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Nov 20 Otago 7.50
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Nov 21 Auckland 10.00
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Nov 21 Hawke’s Bay 8.60
4 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 21 Tasman 9.00

 

November 10, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 5.96 6.21 -0.30
Lyon Rugby 5.91 5.61 0.30
La Rochelle 5.21 2.32 2.90
Stade Toulousain 4.67 4.80 -0.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.24 3.22 1.00
RC Toulonnais 3.46 3.56 -0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 3.04 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.55 2.30 0.20
Stade Francais Paris -1.55 -3.22 1.70
Castres Olympique -1.64 -0.47 -1.20
Section Paloise -3.29 -4.48 1.20
Brive -4.38 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -5.30 -4.13 -1.20
SU Agen -8.33 -4.72 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 47 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Brive Nov 06 35 – 19 12.90 TRUE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Nov 07 16 – 16 12.80 FALSE
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 07 43 – 19 13.00 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Nov 07 24 – 22 15.70 TRUE
5 SU Agen vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 08 16 – 19 -9.70 TRUE
6 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 08 19 – 10 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier Nov 14 Montpellier -2.40
2 Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 14 Racing-Metro 92 -4.80
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 14 Castres Olympique 0.80
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 14 Clermont Auvergne 3.80
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 14 Stade Toulousain -2.50
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Nov 14 La Rochelle -1.30
7 SU Agen vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 14 RC Toulonnais -6.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 9.27 9.90 -0.60
Ulster 6.35 4.58 1.80
Edinburgh 5.53 5.49 0.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.90 5.66 -1.80
Connacht 1.08 0.70 0.40
Scarlets 0.90 1.98 -1.10
Cardiff Blues -0.05 0.08 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.96 -2.82 -0.10
Treviso -3.87 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Zebre -14.23 -15.37 1.10
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Nov 09 7 – 26 -13.70 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Nov 09 18 – 17 23.20 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 10 18 – 0 10.80 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 40 – 15 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Scarlets Nov 15 Connacht 6.70
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Nov 16 Munster 18.70
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Nov 16 Glasgow Warriors 19.10
4 Zebre vs. Ulster Nov 17 Ulster -14.10
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Nov 17 Cardiff Blues 10.30
6 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 17 Leinster 19.20

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 1.86 4.01 -2.10
Bulls 1.84 -1.45 3.30
Stormers 0.41 1.00 -0.60
Lions -3.00 -4.82 1.80
Cheetahs -7.75 -10.00 2.20
Pumas -11.27 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -13.35 -10.00 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Nov 06 19 – 13 15.50 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Stormers Nov 07 6 – 39 -5.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Nov 07 25 – 30 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Sharks Nov 13 Sharks -10.70
2 Lions vs. Pumas Nov 14 Lions 12.80
3 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Nov 14 Stormers 12.70

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.46 15.13 -2.70
Auckland 8.56 6.75 1.80
Canterbury 6.80 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.94 8.21 -2.30
Wellington 5.44 6.47 -1.00
North Harbour 5.26 2.87 2.40
Waikato 2.84 1.31 1.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.77 0.91 1.90
Otago -2.59 -4.03 1.40
Taranaki -3.26 -4.42 1.20
Northland -7.87 -8.71 0.80
Southland -10.33 -14.04 3.70
Counties Manukau -11.20 -8.18 -3.00
Manawatu -14.70 -10.57 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Otago Nov 06 32 – 15 -7.80 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Northland Nov 07 24 – 20 21.70 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Nov 07 32 – 5 18.20 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Nov 07 0 – 29 13.50 FALSE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Nov 08 34 – 18 -2.00 FALSE
6 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 08 30 – 33 0.50 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Nov 08 19 – 35 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Nov 13 Counties Manukau 2.10
2 Northland vs. Waikato Nov 14 Waikato -7.70
3 Otago vs. Tasman Nov 14 Tasman -12.00
4 Wellington vs. Manawatu Nov 14 Wellington 23.10
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Nov 15 Bay of Plenty 3.70
6 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 15 Hawke’s Bay -3.00
7 Canterbury vs. Auckland Nov 15 Canterbury 1.20

 

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November 3, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.70 16.52 1.20
Munster 9.27 9.90 -0.60
Ulster 5.68 4.58 1.10
Edinburgh 4.88 5.49 -0.60
Glasgow Warriors 4.57 5.66 -1.10
Scarlets 1.68 1.98 -0.30
Connacht 1.08 0.70 0.40
Cardiff Blues 0.60 0.08 0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.48 -2.82 0.30
Treviso -3.87 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.02 -15.37 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Munster Nov 02 16 – 28 -11.30 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Nov 02 3 – 6 4.70 FALSE
3 Cardiff Blues vs. Ulster Nov 03 7 – 11 2.60 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Ospreys Nov 03 23 – 17 -7.10 FALSE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Nov 03 19 – 32 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Munster Nov 08 Munster -6.60
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Nov 08 Connacht -3.30
3 Ospreys vs. Leinster Nov 09 Leinster -13.70
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Nov 09 Scarlets 23.20
5 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 10 Edinburgh 10.80
6 Ulster vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 Ulster 7.60

 

November 2, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

This is a new competition which I have had in mind for some time since it is one of the three top European competitions, the other two being the English Premiership and the Pro 14 (not solely European usually but happens to be this year so far).

I ran through the predictions for the first 7 rounds to get to this round but decided not to publish them. You will have to take it on trust that I didn’t fake it. I can report that the first couple of rounds were pretty dodgy, starting with only 50% correct. I expect to get a bit over 70% correct longer term in this competition based on my computations. I have data from the 2012-2013 season through to the incomplete 2019-2020 season which I used to create my initial ratings and to select parameters for the model.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.46 6.21 0.20
Lyon Rugby 6.38 5.61 0.80
Stade Toulousain 5.14 4.80 0.30
La Rochelle 5.01 2.32 2.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 3.22 1.20
RC Toulonnais 3.24 3.56 -0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.62 2.83 -0.20
Montpellier 2.55 2.30 0.20
Stade Francais Paris -1.55 -3.22 1.70
Castres Olympique -2.11 -0.47 -1.60
Section Paloise -3.79 -4.48 0.70
Brive -4.17 -3.26 -0.90
Aviron Bayonnais -4.88 -4.13 -0.80
SU Agen -8.79 -4.72 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 31 21 – 43 -1.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Oct 31 10 – 13 -3.10 TRUE
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. SU Agen Oct 31 71 – 5 14.20 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Nov 01 24 – 35 -2.60 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 01 48 – 14 -3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Brive Nov 06 RC Toulonnais 12.90
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Nov 07 Stade Toulousain 12.80
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 07 Bordeaux-Begles 13.00
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 07 Montpellier 9.60
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Nov 07 Racing-Metro 92 15.70
6 SU Agen vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 08 Lyon Rugby -9.70
7 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 08 La Rochelle 6.10

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 2.54 4.01 -1.50
Bulls 1.33 -1.45 2.80
Stormers -1.36 1.00 -2.40
Lions -2.49 -4.82 2.30
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Pumas -11.27 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -11.58 -10.00 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 30 61 – 31 11.10 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Oct 31 19 – 42 -7.10 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Oct 31 39 – 6 3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Nov 06 Sharks 15.50
2 Griquas vs. Stormers Nov 07 Stormers -5.70
3 Lions vs. Bulls Nov 07 Lions 0.70

 

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