Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 29, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.00 12.20 0.80
Munster 9.45 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.56 9.66 -3.10
Scarlets 4.02 3.91 0.10
Connacht 3.42 2.68 0.70
Edinburgh 2.57 1.24 1.30
Ulster 2.17 1.89 0.30
Cheetahs 0.66 -3.38 4.00
Ospreys 0.53 2.80 -2.30
Cardiff Blues 0.01 0.54 -0.50
Treviso -2.07 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -8.69 -9.31 0.60
Southern Kings -13.66 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 28 – 12 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 23 – 14 8.60 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 18 – 5 -10.40 FALSE
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 36 – 30 19.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 24 – 22 10.90 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 0 – 3 -26.10 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 46 – 7 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 Glasgow Warriors 26.70
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 Leinster 28.20
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 Ulster 26.60
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 Scarlets 9.90
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 Ospreys 3.60
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 Treviso 1.90
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 Munster -2.90

 

October 22, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this weekend’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 28.74 27.60 1.10
England 21.46 19.78 1.70
South Africa 20.59 18.51 2.10
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 9.61 12.72 -3.10
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.7%.
Here are the predictions for last weekend’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 40 – 16 12.90 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 46 – 14 15.10 TRUE
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 20 – 19 5.10 TRUE
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 3 – 26 -18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 New Zealand -7.30
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 South Africa -11.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.51 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 7.41 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 1.08 0.25 0.80
Gloucester 0.96 0.58 0.40
Bath -0.19 1.10 -1.30
Sale Sharks -0.20 0.17 -0.40
Harlequins -0.23 -0.81 0.60
Wasps -0.41 0.31 -0.70
Bristol -1.48 -2.77 1.30
Leicester Tigers -2.04 -1.76 -0.30
Worcester Warriors -2.40 -2.69 0.30
London Irish -4.79 -5.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 43 – 16 0.60 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 22 – 19 13.30 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 16 – 18 4.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 25 – 27 13.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 24 – 16 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 26 – 29 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 Northampton Saints 8.00
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 Gloucester 5.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 Harlequins 5.80
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Sale Sharks -0.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 Saracens -6.00

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.59 9.00 10.60
Canterbury 11.92 12.92 -1.00
Auckland 10.73 11.57 -0.80
Wellington 10.37 10.92 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 10.21 -4.82 15.00
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.09 -5.69 4.60
Otago -6.19 -1.49 -4.70
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -15.28 -11.67 -3.60
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 64 – 3 22.60 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 44 – 39 14.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 30 – 19 8.70 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 18 – 9 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 25 Bay of Plenty 15.30
2 Tasman vs. Wellington Oct 26 Tasman 13.20

 

October 16, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.34 9.34 0.00
Exeter Chiefs 7.99 7.99 -0.00
Bath 1.10 1.10 0.00
Gloucester 0.58 0.58 -0.00
Wasps 0.31 0.31 -0.00
Northampton Saints 0.25 0.25 -0.00
Sale Sharks 0.17 0.17 -0.00
Harlequins -0.81 -0.81 -0.00
Leicester Tigers -1.76 -1.76 -0.00
Worcester Warriors -2.69 -2.69 -0.00
Bristol -2.77 -2.77 0.00
London Irish -5.51 -5.51 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 Bristol 0.60
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 Exeter Chiefs 13.30
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 Sale Sharks 4.10
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 Saracens 13.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 Worcester Warriors 3.60
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 Wasps 10.30

 

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October 15, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.81 12.20 1.60
Munster 9.39 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Scarlets 5.13 3.91 1.20
Connacht 4.22 2.68 1.50
Ulster 2.13 1.89 0.20
Edinburgh 1.46 1.24 0.20
Ospreys 0.59 2.80 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.05 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.14 -3.38 3.20
Treviso -1.52 -1.33 -0.20
Dragons -9.51 -9.31 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.21 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -18.79 -16.93 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Munster Oct 12 40 – 16 -4.90 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Oct 12 14 – 38 -5.90 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Oct 12 40 – 14 17.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 13 54 – 10 29.20 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Ulster Oct 13 17 – 42 -8.60 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 13 17 – 13 14.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Treviso Oct 13 24 – 20 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 Munster 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 Ulster 8.60
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 Glasgow Warriors -10.40
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 Treviso 19.20
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 Connacht 10.90
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 Leinster -26.10
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 Edinburgh 2.80

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 20.45 9.00 11.50
Canterbury 12.64 12.92 -0.30
Auckland 9.87 11.57 -1.70
Wellington 9.65 10.92 -1.30
Bay of Plenty 6.75 -4.82 11.60
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.30 -5.69 4.40
Otago -5.98 -1.49 -4.50
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -11.83 -11.67 -0.20
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 10 12 – 22 -27.20 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 11 11 – 35 -9.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Oct 12 28 – 47 -17.50 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 33 – 17 -0.40 FALSE
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 12 39 – 21 9.00 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Otago Oct 13 40 – 10 -7.20 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 13 31 – 25 13.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 Bay of Plenty 22.60
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 Tasman 14.60
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 Hawke’s Bay 8.70
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 Wellington 1.00

 

October 14, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the RWC Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 20.22 18.51 1.70
Ireland 12.08 12.12 -0.00
Wales 9.97 12.72 -2.70
Australia 7.60 8.70 -1.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.15 -7.67 2.50
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 91.9%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE
29 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 66 – 7 53.90 TRUE
30 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 47 – 17 19.00 TRUE
31 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 61 – 0 40.00 TRUE
32 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 29 – 17 18.80 TRUE
33 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 27 – 8 27.20 TRUE
34 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 47 – 5 24.40 TRUE
35 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 19 – 31 -0.80 TRUE
36 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 35 – 13 45.00 TRUE
37 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 28 – 21 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 England 12.90
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 New Zealand 15.10
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 Wales 5.10
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 South Africa -18.90

 

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October 13, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 6

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Team Ratings 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the latest team ratings, along with the ratings at the start of the competition.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 20.22 18.51 1.70
Ireland 12.08 12.12 -0.00
Wales 12.04 12.72 -0.70
Australia 7.60 8.70 -1.10
Scotland 7.43 5.44 2.00
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Japan -6.44 -7.67 1.20
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -16.84 -20.46 3.60
USA -17.64 -16.38 -1.30
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
Uruguay -32.96 -35.67 2.70
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 94.1%.
Here are the predictions for all games played.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE
29 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 66 – 7 53.90 TRUE
30 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 47 – 17 19.00 TRUE
31 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 61 – 0 40.00 TRUE
32 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 29 – 17 18.80 TRUE
33 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 27 – 8 27.20 TRUE
34 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 47 – 5 24.40 TRUE

 

Predictions 6

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -5.40
2 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 Tonga -0.80
3 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.00
4 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -7.40

 

October 8, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.03 12.20 0.80
Munster 10.34 10.73 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 7.85 9.66 -1.80
Scarlets 4.53 3.91 0.60
Connacht 3.53 2.68 0.80
Edinburgh 2.24 1.24 1.00
Ulster 1.49 1.89 -0.40
Ospreys 1.10 2.80 -1.70
Cardiff Blues -0.43 0.54 -1.00
Cheetahs -1.09 -3.38 2.30
Treviso -2.02 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -8.82 -9.31 0.50
Southern Kings -13.57 -14.70 1.10
Zebre -18.20 -16.93 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 05 21 – 25 11.00 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Oct 05 53 – 5 16.40 TRUE
3 Southern Kings vs. Munster Oct 06 20 – 31 -18.80 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Dragons Oct 06 28 – 52 -1.30 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Oct 06 11 – 19 4.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Ulster Oct 06 63 – 26 1.70 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Treviso Oct 06 41 – 5 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Munster Oct 12 Munster -4.90
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Oct 12 Connacht -5.90
3 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Oct 12 Leinster 17.30
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 13 Scarlets 29.20
5 Southern Kings vs. Ulster Oct 13 Ulster -8.60
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 13 Glasgow Warriors 14.80
7 Ospreys vs. Treviso Oct 13 Ospreys 9.60

 

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