Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

December 27, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

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My apologies for the late publication of these predictions. I was too distracted by Christmas.

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.59 12.20 2.40
Munster 9.14 10.73 -1.60
Glasgow Warriors 6.84 9.66 -2.80
Ulster 3.47 1.89 1.60
Edinburgh 3.20 1.24 2.00
Connacht 2.26 2.68 -0.40
Scarlets 1.95 3.91 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 1.35 0.54 0.80
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Ospreys -1.82 2.80 -4.60
Treviso -2.73 -1.33 -1.40
Dragons -9.63 -9.31 -0.30
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -16.34 -16.93 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 21 54 – 42 17.00 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 22 8 – 13 -9.40 TRUE
3 Connacht vs. Munster Dec 22 14 – 19 -1.20 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Dec 22 22 – 20 -7.40 FALSE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 22 20 – 16 9.70 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 22 16 – 19 2.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Blues 16.00
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Scarlets 8.80
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 28 Ulster 6.20
4 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 28 Treviso 18.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 29 Edinburgh 1.40
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 29 Leinster -0.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.04 9.34 0.70
Exeter Chiefs 7.42 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 2.11 0.25 1.90
Gloucester 2.03 0.58 1.40
Sale Sharks 1.57 0.17 1.40
Bath 1.16 1.10 0.10
Harlequins -0.85 -0.81 -0.00
Bristol -1.82 -2.77 1.00
Wasps -2.71 0.31 -3.00
Worcester Warriors -3.15 -2.69 -0.50
Leicester Tigers -4.36 -1.76 -2.60
London Irish -5.23 -5.51 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 21 36 – 3 7.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 22 – 31 -7.00 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Dec 22 22 – 10 2.90 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Dec 22 47 – 13 14.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Dec 22 22 – 28 3.80 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Bath Dec 23 10 – 38 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Dec 28 Bristol 5.40
2 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 29 Northampton Saints 4.60
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 Bath 4.10
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Dec 29 Worcester Warriors 6.60
5 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 Harlequins 8.00
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 30 Exeter Chiefs 1.90

 

December 3, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.04 12.20 2.80
Munster 8.80 10.73 -1.90
Glasgow Warriors 7.35 9.66 -2.30
Ulster 3.02 1.89 1.10
Edinburgh 2.70 1.24 1.50
Connacht 2.60 2.68 -0.10
Scarlets 2.38 3.91 -1.50
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Cardiff Blues 0.82 0.54 0.30
Ospreys -1.29 2.80 -4.10
Treviso -2.33 -1.33 -1.00
Dragons -10.07 -9.31 -0.80
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -16.74 -16.93 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Nov 30 16 – 18 13.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 30 29 – 5 5.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 01 28 – 31 4.70 FALSE
4 Connacht vs. Southern Kings Dec 01 24 – 12 23.30 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Zebre Dec 01 12 – 39 15.70 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Cheetahs Dec 01 13 – 18 5.20 FALSE
7 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Dec 01 10 – 23 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 21 Leinster 17.00
2 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 22 Treviso -9.40
3 Connacht vs. Munster Dec 22 Munster -1.20
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Dec 22 Scarlets -7.40
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 22 Glasgow Warriors 9.70
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 22 Ospreys 2.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.03 9.34 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 7.26 7.99 -0.70
Northampton Saints 2.63 0.25 2.40
Sale Sharks 1.04 0.17 0.90
Gloucester 0.76 0.58 0.20
Bath -0.23 1.10 -1.30
Bristol -0.81 -2.77 2.00
Harlequins -1.40 -0.81 -0.60
Worcester Warriors -1.88 -2.69 0.80
Wasps -2.15 0.31 -2.50
London Irish -3.83 -5.51 1.70
Leicester Tigers -4.19 -1.76 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Nov 30 12 – 25 -3.70 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Dec 01 38 – 3 11.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 36 – 13 9.90 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Dec 01 20 – 13 0.80 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. London Irish Dec 02 27 – 27 8.50 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 02 23 – 19 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 21 Gloucester 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 Exeter Chiefs -7.00
3 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Dec 22 Sale Sharks 2.90
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Dec 22 Saracens 14.30
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Dec 22 Wasps 3.80
6 London Irish vs. Bath Dec 23 London Irish 0.90

 

November 12, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.50 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 6.09 7.99 -1.90
Northampton Saints 1.92 0.25 1.70
Sale Sharks 1.42 0.17 1.20
Gloucester 0.92 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.30 1.10 -0.80
Bristol -0.32 -2.77 2.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -2.26 -2.69 0.40
Leicester Tigers -3.48 -1.76 -1.70
London Irish -4.33 -5.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Nov 09 28 – 18 6.30 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Nov 10 22 – 13 2.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Nov 10 12 – 21 -2.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 10 14 – 19 6.50 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 11 36 – 11 1.30 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 11 17 – 20 12.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Nov 30 Saracens -3.70
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Dec 01 Exeter Chiefs 11.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 Northampton Saints 9.90
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Dec 01 Worcester Warriors 0.80
5 Bristol vs. London Irish Dec 02 Bristol 8.50
6 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 02 Harlequins 2.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.50 12.20 2.30
Munster 9.42 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.88 9.66 -1.80
Connacht 3.09 2.68 0.40
Scarlets 3.07 3.91 -0.80
Ulster 2.34 1.89 0.40
Edinburgh 2.07 1.24 0.80
Cheetahs 0.44 -3.38 3.80
Cardiff Blues 0.12 0.54 -0.40
Ospreys -0.84 2.80 -3.60
Treviso -1.63 -1.33 -0.30
Dragons -8.82 -9.31 0.50
Southern Kings -13.67 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Nov 09 11 – 42 -4.60 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Nov 09 20 – 7 18.40 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Southern Kings Nov 10 14 – 16 20.90 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 7 – 31 -18.40 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Cheetahs Nov 10 30 – 17 4.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Ulster Nov 10 22 – 16 13.40 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Treviso Nov 10 20 – 17 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Nov 30 Munster 13.80
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 30 Ulster 5.80
3 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 01 Treviso 4.70
4 Connacht vs. Southern Kings Dec 01 Connacht 23.30
5 Dragons vs. Zebre Dec 01 Dragons 15.70
6 Ospreys vs. Cheetahs Dec 01 Ospreys 5.20
7 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Dec 01 Leinster -0.10

 

November 5, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.09 9.34 -1.20
Exeter Chiefs 6.92 7.99 -1.10
Northampton Saints 2.33 0.25 2.10
Gloucester 1.33 0.58 0.70
Sale Sharks 1.12 0.17 0.90
Bath -0.12 1.10 -1.20
Wasps -0.69 0.31 -1.00
Harlequins -0.93 -0.81 -0.10
Bristol -1.14 -2.77 1.60
Leicester Tigers -2.30 -1.76 -0.50
Worcester Warriors -2.89 -2.69 -0.20
London Irish -5.50 -5.51 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 16 – 10 1.70 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 40 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 16 – 13 0.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 16 – 13 19.90 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 30 – 22 3.30 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 20 – 24 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Nov 09 Sale Sharks 6.30
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Nov 10 Bath 2.00
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Nov 10 Saracens -2.30
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 10 Harlequins 6.50
5 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 11 London Irish 1.30
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 11 Exeter Chiefs 12.60

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.62 12.20 1.40
Munster 10.09 10.73 -0.60
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Connacht 3.98 2.68 1.30
Scarlets 3.49 3.91 -0.40
Edinburgh 2.56 1.24 1.30
Ulster 1.67 1.89 -0.20
Cheetahs 1.19 -3.38 4.60
Ospreys -0.03 2.80 -2.80
Cardiff Blues -0.62 0.54 -1.20
Treviso -2.05 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -9.30 -9.31 0.00
Southern Kings -14.47 -14.70 0.20
Zebre -17.48 -16.93 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 50 – 0 26.70 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 50 – 15 28.20 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 22 – 7 26.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 17 – 13 9.90 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 10 – 20 3.60 FALSE
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 18 – 16 1.90 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 23 – 33 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Nov 09 Leinster -4.60
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Nov 09 Edinburgh 18.40
3 Ospreys vs. Southern Kings Nov 10 Ospreys 20.90
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 Glasgow Warriors -18.40
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Cheetahs Nov 10 Cardiff Blues 4.70
6 Munster vs. Ulster Nov 10 Munster 13.40
7 Scarlets vs. Treviso Nov 10 Scarlets 12.00

 

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October 29, 2019

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.01 27.60 -0.60
England 23.20 19.78 3.40
South Africa 19.87 18.51 1.40
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 10.32 12.72 -2.40
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 19 – 7 -7.30 FALSE
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 16 – 19 -11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Wales Nov 01 New Zealand 16.70
2 England vs. South Africa Nov 02 England 3.30

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.98 9.34 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.04 7.99 -1.00
Northampton Saints 1.69 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.53 0.58 0.90
Sale Sharks 1.40 0.17 1.20
Bath 0.18 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -0.29 -0.81 0.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Bristol -1.42 -2.77 1.40
Leicester Tigers -2.51 -1.76 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -3.02 -2.69 -0.30
London Irish -6.39 -5.51 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 13 – 10 -3.10 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 35 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 25 – 9 5.90 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 22 – 17 5.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 7 – 41 -0.10 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 10 – 24 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 Bristol 1.70
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 Northampton Saints 6.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 Leicester Tigers 0.50
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 Saracens 19.90
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 Wasps 3.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 Exeter Chiefs -5.60

 

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