Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 5, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.09 9.80 2.30
Munster 10.08 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 8.68 8.55 0.10
Scarlets 3.80 6.39 -2.60
Connacht 3.10 0.01 3.10
Ulster 1.46 2.07 -0.60
Cardiff Blues 0.52 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh -0.37 -0.64 0.30
Ospreys -0.50 -0.86 0.40
Treviso -0.57 -5.19 4.60
Cheetahs -1.80 -0.83 -1.00
Dragons -10.19 -8.59 -1.60
Southern Kings -10.70 -7.91 -2.80
Zebre -15.06 -10.57 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 19 – 7 19.60 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 03 46 – 5 5.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Mar 03 18 – 10 3.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Mar 03 10 – 6 -2.90 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 03 10 – 42 -18.10 TRUE
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Southern Kings Mar 03 26 – 19 16.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 04 15 – 28 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Mar 23 Cardiff Blues 1.20
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Mar 23 Connacht 8.20
3 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -8.00
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 Glasgow Warriors 15.00
5 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 23 Munster 29.60
6 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 23 Ospreys 14.20
7 Ulster vs. Southern Kings Mar 23 Ulster 16.70

 

February 26, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.04 17.67 -0.60
Hurricanes 8.98 9.43 -0.40
Lions 7.97 8.28 -0.30
Chiefs 5.38 8.56 -3.20
Highlanders 3.96 4.01 -0.00
Sharks 2.44 0.45 2.00
Brumbies 1.45 0.00 1.40
Waratahs 1.27 2.00 -0.70
Jaguares 0.07 -0.26 0.30
Stormers -2.03 -0.39 -1.60
Bulls -2.18 -3.79 1.60
Blues -3.13 -3.42 0.30
Rebels -6.19 -7.26 1.10
Reds -7.48 -8.19 0.70
Sunwolves -16.55 -16.08 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Feb 22 36 – 31 16.90 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Feb 23 30 – 31 -15.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 38 – 22 11.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Feb 23 54 – 17 -5.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Blues Feb 23 26 – 7 8.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Lions Feb 23 19 – 17 -7.70 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls Feb 23 27 – 12 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 01 Hurricanes 11.50
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 01 Highlanders -6.20
3 Chiefs vs. Sunwolves Mar 02 Chiefs 25.90
4 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 02 Crusaders -20.50
5 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 02 Lions 13.60
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 Sharks 8.00
7 Jaguares vs. Blues Mar 02 Jaguares 7.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.94 11.19 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 10.07 11.13 -1.10
Northampton Saints 4.59 3.42 1.20
Wasps 3.61 8.30 -4.70
Gloucester Rugby 3.41 1.23 2.20
Harlequins 3.06 2.05 1.00
Bath Rugby 2.79 3.11 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 2.40 6.26 -3.90
Sale Sharks 1.18 -0.81 2.00
Worcester Warriors -2.58 -5.18 2.60
Bristol -3.72 -5.60 1.90
Newcastle Falcons -4.16 -3.51 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 23 35 – 17 20.10 TRUE
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Saracens Feb 23 30 – 24 -3.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol Feb 23 36 – 26 12.80 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Rugby Feb 23 27 – 26 8.10 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Feb 23 18 – 24 9.30 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 23 17 – 13 -0.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Harlequins Mar 02 Bath Rugby 5.20
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 02 Gloucester Rugby -1.60
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Mar 02 Leicester Tigers 4.30
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 02 Newcastle Falcons 3.90
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 02 Exeter Chiefs -3.40
6 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 02 Saracens 11.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.70 9.80 2.90
Munster 10.63 8.08 2.60
Glasgow Warriors 8.10 8.55 -0.40
Scarlets 3.25 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 1.95 0.01 1.90
Cardiff Blues 0.96 0.24 0.70
Ulster 0.90 2.07 -1.20
Ospreys 0.65 -0.86 1.50
Edinburgh -0.01 -0.64 0.60
Treviso -0.93 -5.19 4.30
Cheetahs -2.41 -0.83 -1.60
Dragons -9.63 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -11.13 -7.91 -3.20
Zebre -14.48 -10.57 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Connacht Feb 23 43 – 17 9.30 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Feb 23 13 – 19 -5.40 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Southern Kings Feb 23 59 – 19 27.30 TRUE
4 Treviso vs. Dragons Feb 24 57 – 7 10.70 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 24 17 – 19 4.60 FALSE
6 Ulster vs. Zebre Feb 24 54 – 7 17.90 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 43 – 21 9.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 Leinster 19.60
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 03 Connacht 5.80
3 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Mar 03 Treviso 3.60
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Mar 03 Munster -2.90
5 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 03 Glasgow Warriors -18.10
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Southern Kings Mar 03 Cardiff Blues 16.60
7 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 04 Ulster -6.00

 

February 19, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.73 17.67 -0.90
Hurricanes 9.28 9.43 -0.10
Lions 8.55 8.28 0.30
Chiefs 7.89 8.56 -0.70
Highlanders 4.67 4.01 0.70
Waratahs 2.15 2.00 0.10
Sharks 1.80 0.45 1.40
Jaguares -0.53 -0.26 -0.30
Brumbies -1.06 0.00 -1.10
Bulls -1.58 -3.79 2.20
Blues -2.48 -3.42 0.90
Stormers -2.61 -0.39 -2.20
Rebels -6.19 -7.26 1.10
Reds -8.19 -8.19 -0.00
Sunwolves -17.43 -16.08 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 15 27 – 30 8.00 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 15 27 – 34 10.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 16 22 – 24 -17.60 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Feb 16 19 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks Feb 16 10 – 45 -12.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 16 40 – 3 0.10 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 16 16 – 25 -4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Feb 22 Highlanders 16.90
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Feb 23 Waratahs -15.60
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 Crusaders 11.00
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Feb 23 Chiefs -5.00
5 Sharks vs. Blues Feb 23 Sharks 8.30
6 Stormers vs. Lions Feb 23 Lions -7.70
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls Feb 23 Jaguares 5.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.41 11.19 0.20
Exeter Chiefs 10.26 11.13 -0.90
Northampton Saints 4.98 3.42 1.60
Wasps 4.31 8.30 -4.00
Harlequins 3.31 2.05 1.30
Gloucester Rugby 2.94 1.23 1.70
Leicester Tigers 2.78 6.26 -3.50
Bath Rugby 2.40 3.11 -0.70
Sale Sharks 0.48 -0.81 1.30
Worcester Warriors -2.96 -5.18 2.20
Bristol -3.97 -5.60 1.60
Newcastle Falcons -4.36 -3.51 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 16 30 – 13 11.20 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 16 22 – 29 -1.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 16 24 – 17 -2.80 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 16 47 – 33 11.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 16 67 – 17 7.00 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 16 33 – 10 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 23 Exeter Chiefs 20.10
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Saracens Feb 23 Saracens -3.00
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol Feb 23 Harlequins 12.80
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Rugby Feb 23 Northampton Saints 8.10
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Feb 23 Wasps 9.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 23 Leicester Tigers -0.20

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.16 9.80 2.40
Munster 10.59 8.08 2.50
Glasgow Warriors 7.44 8.55 -1.10
Scarlets 2.70 6.39 -3.70
Connacht 2.61 0.01 2.60
Ospreys 0.70 -0.86 1.60
Edinburgh 0.51 -0.64 1.10
Cardiff Blues 0.43 0.24 0.20
Ulster -0.10 2.07 -2.20
Cheetahs -1.86 -0.83 -1.00
Treviso -2.18 -5.19 3.00
Dragons -8.37 -8.59 0.20
Southern Kings -10.60 -7.91 -2.70
Zebre -13.48 -10.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 0 – 8 6.50 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Feb 16 34 – 17 12.70 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 16 43 – 0 24.20 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Leinster Feb 17 24 – 40 -22.10 TRUE
5 Treviso vs. Scarlets Feb 17 25 – 19 -1.60 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Feb 17 25 – 17 9.20 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 17 34 – 38 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Connacht Feb 23 Glasgow Warriors 9.30
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Feb 23 Munster -5.40
3 Leinster vs. Southern Kings Feb 23 Leinster 27.30
4 Treviso vs. Dragons Feb 24 Treviso 10.70
5 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 24 Edinburgh 4.60
6 Ulster vs. Zebre Feb 24 Ulster 17.90
7 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 Scarlets 9.10

 

February 8, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.67 17.67 0.00
Hurricanes 9.43 9.43 0.00
Chiefs 8.56 8.56 0.00
Lions 8.28 8.28 -0.00
Highlanders 4.01 4.01 0.00
Waratahs 2.00 2.00 -0.00
Sharks 0.45 0.45 0.00
Brumbies 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Jaguares -0.26 -0.26 0.00
Stormers -0.39 -0.39 0.00
Blues -3.42 -3.42 0.00
Bulls -3.79 -3.79 0.00
Rebels -7.26 -7.26 -0.00
Reds -8.19 -8.19 -0.00
Sunwolves -16.08 -16.08 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 15 Chiefs 8.00
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 15 Brumbies 10.80
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 16 Crusaders -17.60
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Feb 16 Hurricanes -3.40
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks Feb 16 Sharks -12.50
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 16 Bulls 0.10
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 16 Lions -4.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.90 11.19 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 10.76 11.13 -0.40
Wasps 3.85 8.30 -4.40
Northampton Saints 3.46 3.42 0.00
Leicester Tigers 3.28 6.26 -3.00
Harlequins 3.07 2.05 1.00
Gloucester Rugby 2.44 1.23 1.20
Sale Sharks 2.00 -0.81 2.80
Bath Rugby 1.88 3.11 -1.20
Worcester Warriors -2.71 -5.18 2.50
Bristol -3.51 -5.60 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -3.83 -3.51 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Jan 04 24 – 18 -4.50 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 05 14 – 9 21.20 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Rugby Jan 05 34 – 16 5.10 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 05 17 – 38 0.40 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Rugby Jan 05 21 – 19 0.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 27 – 16 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 16 Bath Rugby 11.20
2 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 16 Wasps -1.90
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 16 Exeter Chiefs -2.80
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 16 Harlequins 11.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 16 Northampton Saints 7.00
6 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 16 Saracens 13.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

By

 

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.65 9.80 2.90
Munster 9.86 8.08 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.30 8.55 -1.20
Scarlets 3.31 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 2.70 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.30 -0.86 2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.57 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh 0.17 -0.64 0.80
Ulster -0.70 2.07 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.96 -0.83 -1.10
Treviso -2.79 -5.19 2.40
Dragons -8.03 -8.59 0.60
Southern Kings -9.87 -7.91 -2.00
Zebre -13.96 -10.57 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 03 40 – 36 13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 Ospreys 6.50
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Feb 16 Edinburgh 12.70
3 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 16 Munster 24.20
4 Zebre vs. Leinster Feb 17 Leinster -22.10
5 Treviso vs. Scarlets Feb 17 Scarlets -1.60
6 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Feb 17 Connacht 9.20
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 17 Glasgow Warriors -2.20

 

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