February 19, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.41 11.19 0.20
Exeter Chiefs 10.26 11.13 -0.90
Northampton Saints 4.98 3.42 1.60
Wasps 4.31 8.30 -4.00
Harlequins 3.31 2.05 1.30
Gloucester Rugby 2.94 1.23 1.70
Leicester Tigers 2.78 6.26 -3.50
Bath Rugby 2.40 3.11 -0.70
Sale Sharks 0.48 -0.81 1.30
Worcester Warriors -2.96 -5.18 2.20
Bristol -3.97 -5.60 1.60
Newcastle Falcons -4.36 -3.51 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 16 30 – 13 11.20 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Wasps Feb 16 22 – 29 -1.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 16 24 – 17 -2.80 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 16 47 – 33 11.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 16 67 – 17 7.00 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 16 33 – 10 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 23 Exeter Chiefs 20.10
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Saracens Feb 23 Saracens -3.00
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol Feb 23 Harlequins 12.80
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Rugby Feb 23 Northampton Saints 8.10
5 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Feb 23 Wasps 9.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 23 Leicester Tigers -0.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »