Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

January 29, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 12 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.65 9.80 2.90
Munster 9.86 8.08 1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.30 8.55 -1.20
Scarlets 3.31 6.39 -3.10
Connacht 2.70 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.30 -0.86 2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.57 0.24 0.30
Edinburgh 0.17 -0.64 0.80
Ulster -0.70 2.07 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.53 -0.83 -0.70
Treviso -2.79 -5.19 2.40
Dragons -8.03 -8.59 0.60
Southern Kings -10.30 -7.91 -2.40
Zebre -13.96 -10.57 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 97 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Jan 26 9 – 3 11.40 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jan 26 22 – 17 14.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Treviso Jan 26 17 – 17 7.80 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Zebre Jan 27 61 – 28 15.60 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 27 7 – 8 -14.50 TRUE
6 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Jan 27 25 – 21 -6.90 FALSE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Jan 27 8 – 7 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 12 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 03 Cheetahs 13.30

 

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January 24, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.09 9.80 3.30
Munster 10.43 8.08 2.40
Glasgow Warriors 7.73 8.55 -0.80
Scarlets 2.87 6.39 -3.50
Connacht 2.57 0.01 2.60
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.70 0.24 0.50
Edinburgh 0.65 -0.64 1.30
Ulster -0.07 2.07 -2.10
Cheetahs -2.21 -0.83 -1.40
Treviso -3.42 -5.19 1.80
Dragons -8.59 -8.59 0.00
Southern Kings -10.78 -7.91 -2.90
Zebre -13.28 -10.57 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 20 17 – 24 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ospreys Jan 26 Glasgow Warriors 11.40
2 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jan 26 Leinster 14.70
3 Ulster vs. Treviso Jan 26 Ulster 7.80
4 Cheetahs vs. Zebre Jan 27 Cheetahs 15.60
5 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 27 Munster -14.50
6 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Jan 27 Edinburgh -6.90
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Jan 27 Cardiff Blues 2.60

 

January 9, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 11 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.09 9.80 3.30
Munster 10.43 8.08 2.40
Glasgow Warriors 7.73 8.55 -0.80
Scarlets 2.87 6.39 -3.50
Connacht 2.57 0.01 2.60
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.70 0.24 0.50
Edinburgh 0.65 -0.64 1.30
Ulster -0.07 2.07 -2.10
Cheetahs -2.49 -0.83 -1.70
Treviso -3.42 -5.19 1.80
Dragons -8.59 -8.59 0.00
Southern Kings -10.50 -7.91 -2.60
Zebre -13.28 -10.57 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Jan 05 20 – 11 3.80 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 06 20 – 17 -7.60 FALSE
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 06 40 – 7 16.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 06 22 – 13 17.30 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 06 24 – 31 -2.70 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 06 38 – 0 13.90 TRUE
7 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 07 12 – 27 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 11 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 20 Cheetahs -3.50

 

December 31, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.49 11.13 0.40
Saracens 11.43 11.19 0.20
Northampton Saints 4.03 3.42 0.60
Wasps 3.28 8.30 -5.00
Gloucester Rugby 3.05 1.23 1.80
Leicester Tigers 2.67 6.26 -3.60
Harlequins 2.17 2.05 0.10
Bath Rugby 2.00 3.11 -1.10
Sale Sharks 1.47 -0.81 2.30
Worcester Warriors -2.83 -5.18 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -2.94 -3.51 0.60
Bristol -4.23 -5.60 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 28 31 – 28 -3.10 FALSE
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 15 – 30 9.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Wasps Dec 29 20 – 13 3.80 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 29 25 – 17 21.00 TRUE
5 Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 30 23 – 16 4.40 TRUE
6 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 30 35 – 28 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Jan 04 Saracens -4.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 05 Exeter Chiefs 21.20
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Rugby Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 5.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 05 Newcastle Falcons 0.40
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Rugby Jan 05 Worcester Warriors 0.70
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 Wasps 4.80

 

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Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.43 9.80 2.60
Munster 10.08 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 8.20 8.55 -0.30
Scarlets 3.53 6.39 -2.90
Connacht 2.92 0.01 2.90
Cardiff Blues 1.12 0.24 0.90
Ulster 0.59 2.07 -1.50
Ospreys 0.45 -0.86 1.30
Edinburgh -0.22 -0.64 0.40
Cheetahs -2.93 -0.83 -2.10
Treviso -3.89 -5.19 1.30
Dragons -9.26 -8.59 -0.70
Southern Kings -9.63 -7.91 -1.70
Zebre -12.85 -10.57 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 29 21 – 12 6.40 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 30 28 – 10 12.60 TRUE
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 30 8 – 16 14.60 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 30 26 – 17 0.80 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 30 5 – 34 9.40 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Ospreys Dec 31 23 – 22 -6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Jan 05 Ospreys 3.80
2 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 06 Glasgow Warriors -7.60
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 06 Leinster 16.30
4 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 06 Scarlets 17.30
5 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 06 Munster -2.70
6 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 06 Edinburgh 13.90
7 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 07 Cheetahs -5.40

 

December 26, 2018

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.08 9.80 3.30
Munster 9.43 8.08 1.40
Glasgow Warriors 9.02 8.55 0.50
Scarlets 4.77 6.39 -1.60
Connacht 2.71 0.01 2.70
Ospreys 1.05 -0.86 1.90
Ulster 0.80 2.07 -1.30
Cardiff Blues -0.12 0.24 -0.40
Edinburgh -1.05 -0.64 -0.40
Cheetahs -2.93 -0.83 -2.10
Treviso -4.32 -5.19 0.90
Southern Kings -9.63 -7.91 -1.70
Dragons -9.85 -8.59 -1.30
Zebre -12.41 -10.57 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 22 19 – 16 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Munster Dec 22 19 – 12 -5.20 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 23 8 – 10 -3.90 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 23 19 – 12 -0.40 FALSE
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 23 23 – 7 -7.30 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 23 33 – 29 15.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 29 Connacht 6.40
2 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 30 Treviso 12.60
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 30 Glasgow Warriors 14.60
4 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 30 Munster 0.80
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 30 Scarlets 9.40
6 Dragons vs. Ospreys Dec 31 Ospreys -6.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.04 11.19 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 12.04 11.13 0.90
Gloucester Rugby 4.03 1.23 2.80
Wasps 3.57 8.30 -4.70
Northampton Saints 3.48 3.42 0.10
Leicester Tigers 2.90 6.26 -3.40
Harlequins 1.88 2.05 -0.20
Bath Rugby 1.76 3.11 -1.40
Sale Sharks 0.49 -0.81 1.30
Newcastle Falcons -2.63 -3.51 0.90
Worcester Warriors -3.45 -5.18 1.70
Bristol -4.54 -5.60 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Dec 21 6 – 32 0.70 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 22 31 – 13 4.20 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 22 35 – 24 5.50 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Rugby Dec 22 17 – 20 -0.80 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Dec 22 27 – 10 9.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bath Rugby Dec 23 14 – 24 8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 28 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 Gloucester Rugby 9.00
3 Harlequins vs. Wasps Dec 29 Harlequins 3.80
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 29 Saracens 21.00
5 Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 30 Bath Rugby 4.40
6 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 30 Bristol 3.60

 

December 5, 2018

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.60 9.80 3.80
Munster 9.95 8.08 1.90
Glasgow Warriors 9.87 8.55 1.30
Scarlets 5.36 6.39 -1.00
Connacht 2.20 0.01 2.20
Ospreys 0.45 -0.86 1.30
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.24 0.20
Ulster 0.28 2.07 -1.80
Edinburgh -1.90 -0.64 -1.30
Cheetahs -2.93 -0.83 -2.10
Treviso -4.17 -5.19 1.00
Southern Kings -9.63 -7.91 -1.70
Dragons -10.37 -8.59 -1.80
Zebre -12.57 -10.57 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Dec 01 44 – 14 15.10 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Zebre Dec 01 43 – 0 15.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Connacht Dec 02 17 – 21 0.00 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 02 16 – 12 4.40 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Leinster Dec 02 10 – 59 -17.30 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Dec 02 29 – 20 9.00 TRUE
7 Southern Kings vs. Treviso Dec 02 19 – 22 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 22 Cardiff Blues 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Munster Dec 22 Munster -5.20
3 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 23 Treviso -3.90
4 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 23 Scarlets -0.40
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 23 Glasgow Warriors -7.30
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 23 Leinster 15.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.69 11.19 1.50
Exeter Chiefs 11.39 11.13 0.30
Wasps 4.39 8.30 -3.90
Gloucester Rugby 3.83 1.23 2.60
Northampton Saints 2.42 3.42 -1.00
Leicester Tigers 2.41 6.26 -3.80
Harlequins 2.38 2.05 0.30
Bath Rugby 0.95 3.11 -2.20
Sale Sharks 0.10 -0.81 0.90
Worcester Warriors -2.39 -5.18 2.80
Newcastle Falcons -2.43 -3.51 1.10
Bristol -4.14 -5.60 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 30 28 – 26 -4.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 41 – 10 -3.60 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 01 36 – 16 10.80 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 01 14 – 16 11.60 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Wasps Dec 01 29 – 6 12.80 TRUE
6 Bath Rugby vs. Sale Sharks Dec 02 7 – 7 7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Dec 21 Worcester Warriors 0.70
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 22 Exeter Chiefs 4.20
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 22 Leicester Tigers 5.50
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Rugby Dec 22 Gloucester Rugby -0.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Dec 22 Sale Sharks 9.70
6 Wasps vs. Bath Rugby Dec 23 Wasps 8.90

 

November 28, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.17 11.19 1.00
Exeter Chiefs 12.00 11.13 0.90
Wasps 4.90 8.30 -3.40
Leicester Tigers 3.70 6.26 -2.60
Gloucester Rugby 3.35 1.23 2.10
Northampton Saints 3.06 3.42 -0.40
Harlequins 1.77 2.05 -0.30
Bath Rugby 1.34 3.11 -1.80
Sale Sharks -0.30 -0.81 0.50
Worcester Warriors -1.92 -5.18 3.30
Newcastle Falcons -3.07 -3.51 0.40
Bristol -5.43 -5.60 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Rugby Nov 23 16 – 8 0.30 TRUE
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Nov 23 20 – 13 0.70 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby Nov 24 23 – 6 13.50 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 24 18 – 13 1.50 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 24 32 – 28 17.10 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Nov 25 22 – 27 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 30 Exeter Chiefs -4.70
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 Leicester Tigers -3.60
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 01 Gloucester Rugby 10.80
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 01 Northampton Saints 11.60
5 Saracens vs. Wasps Dec 01 Saracens 12.80
6 Bath Rugby vs. Sale Sharks Dec 02 Bath Rugby 7.10

 

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