Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 4, 2018

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.55 16.73 -9.20
Roosters 6.66 0.13 6.50
Broncos 5.67 4.78 0.90
Sharks 5.66 2.20 3.50
Rabbitohs 3.95 -3.90 7.80
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Warriors 0.01 -6.97 7.00
Panthers -0.14 2.64 -2.80
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Dragons -3.25 -0.45 -2.80
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 51 – 10 7.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 20 – 16 2.40 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 31 16 – 22 13.40 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 01 14 – 24 -1.20 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Cowboys Sep 01 26 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Sep 01 10 – 44 -5.70 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sep 02 18 – 30 -2.10 TRUE
8 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 48 – 16 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 07 Storm 6.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 Panthers 4.40
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 08 Roosters 4.00
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Sep 09 Broncos 11.90

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.41 15.32 -0.90
Wellington 12.71 12.18 0.50
Taranaki 5.22 6.58 -1.40
Tasman 4.68 2.62 2.10
North Harbour 3.32 6.42 -3.10
Bay of Plenty 2.57 0.27 2.30
Auckland 2.19 -0.50 2.70
Otago 1.23 0.33 0.90
Counties Manukau 0.10 1.84 -1.70
Northland -3.30 -3.45 0.10
Waikato -3.96 -3.24 -0.70
Manawatu -7.89 -4.36 -3.50
Hawke’s Bay -9.53 -13.00 3.50
Southland -23.94 -23.17 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 29 19 – 26 -0.30 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 35 – 17 8.40 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 31 52 – 7 39.70 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Sep 01 19 – 31 -6.90 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 01 17 – 50 1.00 FALSE
6 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 01 20 – 32 5.90 FALSE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 25 – 29 -6.60 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 02 18 – 17 -5.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 05 Wellington -12.70
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Canterbury 26.30
3 Otago vs. Northland Sep 07 Otago 8.50
4 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 07 Auckland 1.50
5 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 08 Counties Manukau -20.00
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 Bay of Plenty -8.10
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 09 Wellington 13.40
8 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 09 Taranaki 13.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.10 4.66 1.40
Lions 3.90 3.23 0.70
Sharks 3.77 4.18 -0.40
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.98 0.94 0.00
Pumas -8.43 -8.36 -0.10
Griquas -10.60 -9.78 -0.80
Cheetahs2 -29.22 -30.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Aug 31 28 – 57 -8.70 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 01 35 – 38 2.50 FALSE
3 Cheetahs2 vs. Sharks Sep 01 29 – 33 -30.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 07 Sharks 16.70
2 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 08 Blue Bulls -7.10
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 08 Lions 37.60

 

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August 28, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.91 16.73 -7.80
Sharks 4.97 2.20 2.80
Roosters 4.68 0.13 4.50
Broncos 4.21 4.78 -0.60
Raiders 1.96 3.50 -1.50
Rabbitohs 1.62 -3.90 5.50
Cowboys -0.09 2.97 -3.10
Warriors -0.10 -6.97 6.90
Bulldogs -0.12 -3.43 3.30
Panthers -1.50 2.64 -4.10
Wests Tigers -3.10 -3.63 0.50
Titans -3.84 -8.91 5.10
Dragons -3.87 -0.45 -3.40
Eels -4.00 1.51 -5.50
Sea Eagles -4.02 -1.07 -3.00
Knights -8.04 -8.43 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 23 22 – 20 4.20 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 24 36 – 16 3.60 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Eels Aug 24 44 – 6 1.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Aug 25 24 – 12 1.90 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Storm Aug 25 8 – 10 -11.00 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 25 8 – 22 6.30 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 26 38 – 12 14.40 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 0 – 38 5.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 Rabbitohs 7.70
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 Warriors 2.40
3 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 31 Storm 13.40
4 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 01 Dragons -1.20
5 Titans vs. Cowboys Sep 01 Cowboys -0.70
6 Eels vs. Roosters Sep 01 Roosters -5.70
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sep 02 Sharks -2.10
8 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 Broncos 11.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.95 15.32 -1.40
Wellington 12.23 12.18 0.10
Taranaki 5.23 6.58 -1.40
North Harbour 4.93 6.42 -1.50
Tasman 3.07 2.62 0.50
Bay of Plenty 3.03 0.27 2.80
Auckland 1.33 -0.50 1.80
Counties Manukau 0.88 1.84 -1.00
Otago -1.83 0.33 -2.20
Waikato -3.10 -3.24 0.10
Northland -3.91 -3.45 -0.50
Manawatu -4.83 -4.36 -0.50
Hawke’s Bay -9.71 -13.00 3.30
Southland -23.46 -23.17 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 23 17 – 22 3.40 FALSE
2 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 24 25 – 31 15.80 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Aug 24 41 – 21 12.70 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 25 27 – 20 5.40 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 25 28 – 29 -4.70 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 26 45 – 24 32.60 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 26 12 – 28 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 29 Taranaki -0.30
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 Auckland 8.40
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 31 Wellington 39.70
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Sep 01 Canterbury -6.90
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 01 Manawatu 1.00
6 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 01 North Harbour 5.90
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Counties Manukau -6.60
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 02 Taranaki -5.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.44 4.66 0.80
Sharks 4.56 4.18 0.40
Lions 3.46 3.23 0.20
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 1.42 0.94 0.50
Pumas -7.77 -8.36 0.60
Griquas -10.60 -9.78 -0.80
Cheetahs2 -30.00 -30.00 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Aug 24 62 – 41 18.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 26 – 10 6.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 25 32 – 0 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Aug 31 Western Province -8.70
2 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 01 Blue Bulls 2.50
3 Cheetahs2 vs. Sharks Sep 01 Sharks -30.10

 

August 21, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 24

By

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.54 16.73 -7.20
Roosters 6.10 0.13 6.00
Sharks 4.16 2.20 2.00
Broncos 2.79 4.78 -2.00
Rabbitohs 2.33 -3.90 6.20
Raiders 1.26 3.50 -2.20
Panthers -0.35 2.64 -3.00
Dragons -0.83 -0.45 -0.40
Warriors -1.25 -6.97 5.70
Eels -1.47 1.51 -3.00
Cowboys -2.62 2.97 -5.60
Wests Tigers -2.94 -3.63 0.70
Bulldogs -3.16 -3.43 0.30
Sea Eagles -4.18 -1.07 -3.10
Titans -4.47 -8.91 4.40
Knights -7.22 -8.43 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 16 38 – 18 0.80 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Aug 17 34 – 42 5.10 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Eels Aug 17 20 – 4 13.70 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 18 12 – 20 12.80 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 18 10 – 20 2.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 18 28 – 16 9.40 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 19 27 – 26 2.90 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 19 14 – 12 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 23 Wests Tigers 4.20
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 24 Warriors 3.60
3 Cowboys vs. Eels Aug 24 Cowboys 1.80
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Aug 25 Raiders 1.90
5 Titans vs. Storm Aug 25 Storm -11.00
6 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 25 Roosters 6.30
7 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 26 Sharks 14.40
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 Dragons 5.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.81 15.32 -1.50
Wellington 12.37 12.18 0.20
North Harbour 5.26 6.42 -1.20
Taranaki 4.57 6.58 -2.00
Tasman 4.12 2.62 1.50
Bay of Plenty 2.27 0.27 2.00
Counties Manukau 1.63 1.84 -0.20
Otago 0.13 0.33 -0.20
Auckland -0.29 -0.50 0.20
Northland -2.29 -3.45 1.20
Waikato -3.43 -3.24 -0.20
Manawatu -4.17 -4.36 0.20
Hawke’s Bay -11.67 -13.00 1.30
Southland -24.51 -23.17 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Northland Aug 16 21 – 20 13.90 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 25 – 17 -8.70 FALSE
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 18 24 – 19 2.90 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 23 – 19 1.70 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 18 30 – 10 -2.30 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 19 34 – 16 15.80 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 19 10 – 31 -6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 23 Counties Manukau 3.40
2 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 24 Otago 15.80
3 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Aug 24 Taranaki 12.70
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 25 Canterbury 5.40
5 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 25 North Harbour -4.70
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 26 Tasman 32.60
7 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 26 Northland 2.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.66 4.66 -0.00
Sharks 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Lions 3.23 3.23 -0.00
Cheetahs 3.01 3.86 -0.80
Blue Bulls 1.79 0.94 0.90
Pumas -7.77 -8.36 0.60
Griquas -10.37 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -30.00 -30.00 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 17 12 – 34 7.40 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 18 42 – 19 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Aug 24 Lions 18.10
2 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 Sharks 6.90
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 25 Western Province 6.20

 

August 16, 2018

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.66 4.66 -0.00
Sharks 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Cheetahs 3.86 3.86 0.00
Lions 3.23 3.23 -0.00
Blue Bulls 0.94 0.94 0.00
Pumas -8.36 -8.36 -0.00
Griquas -9.78 -9.78 0.00
Cheetahs2 -30.00 -30.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 17 Cheetahs 7.40
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 18 Pumas 5.90

 

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