Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 2, 2018

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.82 4.66 3.20
Sharks 3.62 4.18 -0.60
Lions 2.27 3.23 -1.00
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.52 0.94 -0.40
Pumas -7.64 -8.36 0.70
Griquas -10.39 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 29 50 – 28 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Oct 12 Lions -5.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Oct 13 Sharks -9.50
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 13 Western Province -2.80

 

September 25, 2018

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.13 16.73 -8.60
Roosters 7.37 0.13 7.20
Sharks 4.08 2.20 1.90
Rabbitohs 3.73 -3.90 7.60
Broncos 2.73 4.78 -2.10
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Panthers 0.87 2.64 -1.80
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Dragons -0.06 -0.45 0.40
Warriors -0.74 -6.97 6.20
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 126 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 21 22 – 6 2.10 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 12 – 4 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 30 Roosters 2.20

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 15.79 12.18 3.60
Canterbury 13.13 15.32 -2.20
Auckland 5.93 -0.50 6.40
Waikato 4.45 -3.24 7.70
Tasman 4.45 2.62 1.80
North Harbour 4.23 6.42 -2.20
Taranaki 0.13 6.58 -6.40
Otago -0.65 0.33 -1.00
Northland -1.84 -3.45 1.60
Bay of Plenty -2.20 0.27 -2.50
Counties Manukau -2.30 1.84 -4.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.06 -13.00 2.90
Manawatu -10.67 -4.36 -6.30
Southland -22.57 -23.17 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 19 19 – 29 -9.90 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Southland Sep 20 26 – 10 26.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Sep 21 21 – 54 4.00 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 22 34 – 51 -8.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 22 25 – 47 -7.10 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 22 30 – 31 -2.00 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 23 21 – 19 12.70 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Wellington Sep 23 7 – 49 -18.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 26 Northland -4.20
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Bay of Plenty 12.50
3 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 28 Auckland 10.60
4 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 29 Waikato 31.00
5 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 29 North Harbour -0.10
6 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 29 Wellington 15.30
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 Canterbury 27.20
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 30 Counties Manukau 3.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.31 4.66 2.60
Sharks 4.13 4.18 -0.10
Lions 2.27 3.23 -1.00
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.52 0.94 -0.40
Pumas -7.64 -8.36 0.70
Griquas -10.39 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 17 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs2 vs. Pumas Sep 22 14 – 42 -16.70 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 22 37 – 21 5.50 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 22 38 – 12 21.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 29 Western Province 7.70

 

September 18, 2018

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.16 16.73 -9.60
Roosters 7.01 0.13 6.90
Sharks 5.05 2.20 2.80
Rabbitohs 4.09 -3.90 8.00
Broncos 2.73 4.78 -2.10
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Panthers 0.87 2.64 -1.80
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Dragons -0.06 -0.45 0.40
Warriors -0.74 -6.97 6.20
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 124 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Sep 14 21 – 20 4.70 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 15 13 – 12 4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 21 Storm 2.10
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 Roosters 2.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.65 12.18 1.50
Canterbury 11.79 15.32 -3.50
Auckland 6.02 -0.50 6.50
Tasman 5.40 2.62 2.80
North Harbour 3.49 6.42 -2.90
Waikato 2.92 -3.24 6.20
Bay of Plenty 1.13 0.27 0.90
Otago 0.69 0.33 0.40
Taranaki 0.05 6.58 -6.50
Northland -0.88 -3.45 2.60
Counties Manukau -3.26 1.84 -5.10
Manawatu -8.52 -4.36 -4.20
Hawke’s Bay -11.12 -13.00 1.90
Southland -23.53 -23.17 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 12 21 – 31 -5.80 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 42 – 2 13.20 TRUE
3 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 49 – 19 7.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 14 53 – 17 3.50 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 15 12 – 53 -6.70 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Otago Sep 15 24 – 43 -20.50 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 32 – 20 5.50 TRUE
8 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 16 29 – 34 12.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 19 Tasman -9.90
2 Northland vs. Southland Sep 20 Northland 26.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Sep 21 Bay of Plenty 2.20
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 22 North Harbour -10.60
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 22 Canterbury -7.10
6 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 22 Auckland -2.00
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 23 Tasman 12.70
8 Manawatu vs. Wellington Sep 23 Wellington -18.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.94 4.66 2.30
Sharks 3.72 4.18 -0.50
Lions 2.69 3.23 -0.50
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.52 0.94 -0.40
Pumas -8.08 -8.36 0.30
Griquas -10.02 -9.78 -0.20
Cheetahs2 -29.25 -30.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 15 38 – 65 1.90 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 15 52 – 24 22.90 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Sep 15 39 – 29 13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs2 vs. Pumas Sep 22 Pumas -16.70
2 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 22 Sharks 5.50
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 22 Western Province 21.50

 

September 11, 2018

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.16 16.73 -9.60
Roosters 7.01 0.13 6.90
Sharks 5.31 2.20 3.10
Rabbitohs 4.34 -3.90 8.20
Broncos 2.73 4.78 -2.10
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Panthers 0.61 2.64 -2.00
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Dragons -0.31 -0.45 0.10
Warriors -0.74 -6.97 6.20
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 122 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 07 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 27 – 12 4.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 08 21 – 12 4.00 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Sep 09 18 – 48 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Sep 14 Sharks 4.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 15 Rabbitohs 4.70

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.03 15.32 -2.30
Wellington 10.56 12.18 -1.60
Auckland 4.39 -0.50 4.90
North Harbour 3.25 6.42 -3.20
Taranaki 2.97 6.58 -3.60
Tasman 2.48 2.62 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 1.75 0.27 1.50
Otago 0.82 0.33 0.50
Waikato 0.51 -3.24 3.70
Counties Manukau -0.17 1.84 -2.00
Northland -2.89 -3.45 0.60
Manawatu -6.51 -4.36 -2.10
Hawke’s Bay -8.71 -13.00 4.30
Southland -23.66 -23.17 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 05 43 – 31 -12.70 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 06 34 – 23 26.30 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Northland Sep 07 27 – 23 8.50 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 07 36 – 10 1.50 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 08 26 – 43 -20.00 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 29 – 28 -8.10 FALSE
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 09 35 – 23 13.40 TRUE
8 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 09 19 – 33 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 12 Canterbury -5.80
2 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 Waikato 13.20
3 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 Northland 7.60
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 14 Tasman 3.50
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 15 Wellington -6.70
6 Southland vs. Otago Sep 15 Otago -20.50
7 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 North Harbour 5.50
8 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 16 Canterbury 12.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.10 4.66 1.40
Sharks 3.72 4.18 -0.50
Lions 3.53 3.23 0.30
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.81 0.94 -0.10
Pumas -8.38 -8.36 -0.00
Griquas -10.43 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -28.85 -30.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 07 28 – 12 16.70 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 08 40 – 45 -7.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 08 47 – 14 37.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 15 Lions 1.90
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 15 Griquas 22.90
3 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Sep 15 Blue Bulls 13.70

 

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