Posts written by David Scott (1769)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 14, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.38 16.73 -7.40
Roosters 6.41 0.13 6.30
Sharks 3.98 2.20 1.80
Rabbitohs 3.67 -3.90 7.60
Broncos 1.45 4.78 -3.30
Panthers 1.11 2.64 -1.50
Raiders 0.95 3.50 -2.60
Eels -1.31 1.51 -2.80
Warriors -1.38 -6.97 5.60
Dragons -1.72 -0.45 -1.30
Wests Tigers -2.06 -3.63 1.60
Cowboys -2.44 2.97 -5.40
Bulldogs -3.03 -3.43 0.40
Sea Eagles -3.26 -1.07 -2.20
Titans -5.39 -8.91 3.50
Knights -8.68 -8.43 -0.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 34 – 30 -1.70 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 10 20 – 4 11.10 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Aug 10 14 – 18 0.90 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 11 16 – 17 -3.90 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Aug 11 18 – 6 1.30 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 11 40 – 4 -1.90 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 12 20 – 22 7.30 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 12 14 – 17 10.30 FALSE

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 16 Broncos 0.80
2 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Aug 17 Sea Eagles 5.10
3 Storm vs. Eels Aug 17 Storm 13.70
4 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 18 Panthers 12.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 18 Wests Tigers 2.70
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 18 Sharks 9.40
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 19 Bulldogs 2.90
8 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 19 Roosters -2.50

View comments (2)

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.32 15.32 0.00
Wellington 12.18 12.18 0.00
Taranaki 6.58 6.58 0.00
North Harbour 6.42 6.42 0.00
Tasman 2.62 2.62 0.00
Counties Manukau 1.84 1.84 0.00
Otago 0.33 0.33 0.00
Bay of Plenty 0.27 0.27 0.00
Auckland -0.50 -0.50 0.00
Waikato -3.24 -3.24 0.00
Northland -3.45 -3.45 0.00
Manawatu -4.36 -4.36 0.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.00 -13.00 0.00
Southland -23.17 -23.17 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Northland Aug 16 North Harbour 13.90
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 Canterbury -8.70
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 18 Manawatu 2.90
4 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 Auckland 1.70
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 18 Taranaki -2.30
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 19 Wellington 15.80
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 19 Hawke’s Bay -6.20

 

View comments (2)
August 7, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.30 16.73 -6.40
Roosters 6.07 0.13 5.90
Rabbitohs 4.02 -3.90 7.90
Sharks 3.05 2.20 0.80
Broncos 1.84 4.78 -2.90
Raiders 1.60 3.50 -1.90
Panthers 1.31 2.64 -1.30
Dragons 0.93 -0.45 1.40
Warriors -1.72 -6.97 5.30
Bulldogs -2.27 -3.43 1.20
Wests Tigers -2.71 -3.63 0.90
Cowboys -2.84 2.97 -5.80
Eels -3.96 1.51 -5.50
Sea Eagles -4.01 -1.07 -2.90
Titans -5.59 -8.91 3.30
Knights -8.34 -8.43 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 02 36 – 22 -3.60 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 03 16 – 25 -1.60 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 03 30 – 20 -5.40 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 04 12 – 18 9.30 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Titans Aug 04 28 – 12 2.80 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 04 26 – 20 12.90 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 32 – 33 11.90 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 05 40 – 31 1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 Broncos -1.70
2 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 10 Warriors 11.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Aug 10 Rabbitohs 0.90
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 11 Panthers -3.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Aug 11 Sea Eagles 1.30
6 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 11 Dragons -1.90
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 12 Raiders 7.30
8 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 12 Storm 10.30

 

View comments (2)
July 31, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

By

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.10 15.23 2.90
Hurricanes 10.29 16.18 -5.90
Lions 9.23 13.81 -4.60
Chiefs 9.12 9.29 -0.20
Highlanders 4.58 10.29 -5.70
Waratahs 1.88 -3.92 5.80
Sharks 0.58 1.02 -0.40
Brumbies -0.06 1.75 -1.80
Jaguares -0.22 -4.64 4.40
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Blues -3.20 -0.24 -3.00
Bulls -3.81 -4.79 1.00
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -8.63 -9.47 0.80
Sunwolves -16.98 -18.42 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 28 30 – 12 10.40 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Waratahs Jul 29 44 – 26 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Aug 04 Crusaders 12.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.39 16.73 -5.30
Roosters 6.55 0.13 6.40
Sharks 3.95 2.20 1.70
Broncos 3.07 4.78 -1.70
Rabbitohs 2.94 -3.90 6.80
Raiders 2.11 3.50 -1.40
Dragons 2.00 -0.45 2.40
Panthers 0.80 2.64 -1.80
Warriors -2.79 -6.97 4.20
Wests Tigers -3.23 -3.63 0.40
Cowboys -3.32 2.97 -6.30
Bulldogs -3.50 -3.43 -0.10
Titans -4.66 -8.91 4.30
Eels -4.88 1.51 -6.40
Sea Eagles -4.91 -1.07 -3.80
Knights -7.82 -8.43 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 26 12 – 10 2.10 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Knights Jul 27 20 – 18 8.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 27 16 – 4 1.20 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jul 28 24 – 28 -2.50 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 28 26 – 20 11.60 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 28 44 – 10 8.70 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 29 36 – 12 -0.80 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 29 36 – 18 5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 02 Broncos -3.60
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 03 Wests Tigers -1.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 03 Storm -5.40
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 04 Dragons 9.30
5 Eels vs. Titans Aug 04 Eels 2.80
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 04 Roosters 12.90
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 Sharks 11.90
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 05 Panthers 1.70

 

View comments (2)
July 23, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.65 15.23 2.40
Hurricanes 10.74 16.18 -5.40
Chiefs 9.12 9.29 -0.20
Lions 8.78 13.81 -5.00
Highlanders 4.58 10.29 -5.70
Waratahs 2.34 -3.92 6.30
Sharks 0.58 1.02 -0.40
Brumbies -0.06 1.75 -1.80
Jaguares -0.22 -4.64 4.40
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Blues -3.20 -0.24 -3.00
Bulls -3.81 -4.79 1.00
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -8.63 -9.47 0.80
Sunwolves -16.98 -18.42 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 20 32 – 31 5.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 21 40 – 10 19.80 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jul 21 30 – 23 1.00 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Jaguares Jul 21 40 – 23 12.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 28 Crusaders 10.40
2 Lions vs. Waratahs Jul 29 Lions 10.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.62 16.73 -7.10
Roosters 5.70 0.13 5.60
Sharks 3.94 2.20 1.70
Raiders 3.88 3.50 0.40
Rabbitohs 3.33 -3.90 7.20
Broncos 3.08 4.78 -1.70
Dragons 2.85 -0.45 3.30
Panthers 0.69 2.64 -1.90
Warriors -1.05 -6.97 5.90
Wests Tigers -2.47 -3.63 1.20
Cowboys -2.88 2.97 -5.80
Bulldogs -4.26 -3.43 -0.80
Sea Eagles -4.80 -1.07 -3.70
Eels -5.28 1.51 -6.80
Titans -6.40 -8.91 2.50
Knights -8.27 -8.43 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 19 14 – 8 1.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 20 28 – 24 2.90 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 20 50 – 18 1.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 21 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 22 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 21 10 – 24 -0.90 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 22 6 – 12 -6.20 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 22 24 – 56 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 26 Broncos 2.10
2 Cowboys vs. Knights Jul 27 Cowboys 8.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 27 Bulldogs 1.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jul 28 Panthers -2.50
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 28 Rabbitohs 11.60
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 28 Storm 8.70
7 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 29 Warriors -0.80
8 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 29 Roosters 5.80

 

July 17, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifiers

By

Team Ratings for the Qualifiers

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.04 15.23 1.80
Hurricanes 11.03 16.18 -5.10
Chiefs 8.84 9.29 -0.40
Lions 8.50 13.81 -5.30
Highlanders 4.94 10.29 -5.40
Waratahs 1.98 -3.92 5.90
Sharks 1.19 1.02 0.20
Jaguares 0.06 -4.64 4.70
Brumbies -0.06 1.75 -1.80
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Blues -3.20 -0.24 -3.00
Bulls -3.81 -4.79 1.00
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -8.63 -9.47 0.80
Sunwolves -16.98 -18.42 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 13 28 – 24 0.90 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves Jul 13 48 – 27 11.20 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels Jul 14 43 – 37 18.40 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 14 54 – 17 21.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 14 31 – 40 7.50 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Bulls Jul 14 38 – 12 14.40 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Jaguares Jul 14 20 – 10 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifiers

Here are the predictions for the Qualifiers. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 20 Hurricanes 5.70
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 21 Crusaders 19.80
3 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jul 21 Waratahs 1.00
4 Lions vs. Jaguares Jul 21 Lions 12.40

 

View comments (1)

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.63 16.73 -7.10
Rabbitohs 4.86 -3.90 8.80
Raiders 3.96 3.50 0.50
Sharks 3.86 2.20 1.70
Roosters 3.70 0.13 3.60
Panthers 2.86 2.64 0.20
Dragons 1.94 -0.45 2.40
Broncos 0.92 4.78 -3.90
Warriors -1.07 -6.97 5.90
Cowboys -1.96 2.97 -4.90
Sea Eagles -2.81 -1.07 -1.70
Bulldogs -3.93 -3.43 -0.50
Wests Tigers -4.00 -3.63 -0.40
Eels -5.60 1.51 -7.10
Titans -6.01 -8.91 2.90
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 13 12 – 24 4.30 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Eels Jul 13 18 – 16 -0.40 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 14 6 – 24 -3.80 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jul 14 13 – 14 -10.80 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 14 38 – 12 6.10 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 15 6 – 26 10.80 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 15 16 – 20 11.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 15 12 – 20 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 19 Eels 1.30
2 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 20 Sharks 2.90
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 20 Broncos 1.10
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 21 Knights 0.30
5 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 Rabbitohs -5.90
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 21 Dragons -0.90
7 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -6.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 22 Roosters -3.50

 

July 11, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.14 15.23 0.90
Hurricanes 11.21 16.18 -5.00
Chiefs 8.65 9.29 -0.60
Lions 7.81 13.81 -6.00
Highlanders 5.68 10.29 -4.60
Waratahs 2.97 -3.92 6.90
Sharks 0.86 1.02 -0.20
Jaguares 0.39 -4.64 5.00
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Brumbies -1.05 1.75 -2.80
Blues -2.29 -0.24 -2.10
Bulls -3.12 -4.79 1.70
Rebels -8.72 -14.96 6.20
Reds -9.22 -9.47 0.30
Sunwolves -16.39 -18.42 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 06 45 – 22 12.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 06 37 – 23 1.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 24 – 19 14.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 07 42 – 24 16.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Jul 07 77 – 25 19.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Jul 07 43 – 34 -0.70 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 07 27 – 16 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 13 Chiefs 0.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves Jul 13 Reds 11.20
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels Jul 14 Highlanders 18.40
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 14 Crusaders 21.90
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 14 Waratahs 7.50
6 Lions vs. Bulls Jul 14 Lions 14.40
7 Sharks vs. Jaguares Jul 14 Sharks 4.50

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »