Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 27, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.51 16.18 0.30
Crusaders 14.63 15.23 -0.60
Highlanders 10.27 10.29 -0.00
Chiefs 10.13 9.29 0.80
Lions 8.45 13.81 -5.40
Stormers 1.02 1.48 -0.50
Blues 0.50 -0.24 0.70
Brumbies -1.36 1.75 -3.10
Sharks -1.49 1.02 -2.50
Waratahs -2.55 -3.92 1.40
Bulls -3.74 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.16 -4.64 0.50
Reds -7.95 -9.47 1.50
Rebels -8.64 -14.96 6.30
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 23 33 – 14 22.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Mar 23 46 – 14 -7.90 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Mar 24 10 – 61 -21.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 24 29 – 12 8.80 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Reds Mar 24 25 – 19 13.90 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 24 49 – 35 -11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 30 Chiefs 3.40
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -21.10
3 Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 Blues 6.00
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 31 Brumbies 4.70
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 31 Stormers -1.30
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 Crusaders -2.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.10 16.73 -1.60
Dragons 4.51 -0.45 5.00
Broncos 3.17 4.78 -1.60
Cowboys 2.98 2.97 0.00
Panthers 2.73 2.64 0.10
Roosters 2.10 0.13 2.00
Sharks 2.08 2.20 -0.10
Raiders 0.73 3.50 -2.80
Sea Eagles 0.02 -1.07 1.10
Wests Tigers -1.68 -3.63 2.00
Rabbitohs -2.47 -3.90 1.40
Bulldogs -3.84 -3.43 -0.40
Eels -3.87 1.51 -5.40
Warriors -4.39 -6.97 2.60
Knights -8.30 -8.43 0.10
Titans -11.17 -8.91 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Mar 22 30 – 14 15.00 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 23 20 – 18 -4.50 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Mar 23 7 – 9 -1.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 24 19 – 20 11.40 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 34 – 6 -4.00 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 24 4 – 14 -1.80 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 25 8 – 54 -7.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 25 38 – 8 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Mar 29 Cowboys 3.20
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 30 Rabbitohs 4.40
3 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 30 Storm -10.00
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 Roosters 11.00
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 31 Sea Eagles 2.30
6 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 01 Dragons 15.80
7 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 01 Broncos 17.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 02 Wests Tigers 5.20

 

March 20, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.02 16.18 -0.20
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Highlanders 10.76 10.29 0.50
Lions 9.99 13.81 -3.80
Chiefs 8.37 9.29 -0.90
Stormers 1.50 1.48 0.00
Sharks 0.91 1.02 -0.10
Blues 0.50 -0.24 0.70
Brumbies -1.36 1.75 -3.10
Waratahs -2.55 -3.92 1.40
Bulls -3.98 -4.79 0.80
Jaguares -5.70 -4.64 -1.10
Reds -8.43 -9.47 1.00
Rebels -11.03 -14.96 3.90
Sunwolves -17.28 -18.42 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls Mar 16 41 – 28 16.80 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 17 25 – 17 -1.80 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 17 24 – 17 1.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 17 37 – 20 3.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 40 – 38 35.30 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 17 7 – 18 9.10 FALSE
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 18 51 – 27 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 23 Crusaders 22.80
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Mar 23 Sharks -7.90
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Mar 24 Chiefs -21.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 24 Hurricanes 8.80
5 Stormers vs. Reds Mar 24 Stormers 13.90
6 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 24 Lions -11.70

 

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NRL Predictions for Round

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.03 16.73 -1.70
Panthers 3.19 2.64 0.60
Broncos 3.16 4.78 -1.60
Cowboys 3.05 2.97 0.10
Sea Eagles 2.26 -1.07 3.30
Dragons 1.80 -0.45 2.20
Raiders 1.60 3.50 -1.90
Sharks 1.50 2.20 -0.70
Roosters 0.75 0.13 0.60
Wests Tigers -1.67 -3.63 2.00
Eels -3.30 1.51 -4.80
Bulldogs -4.30 -3.43 -0.90
Rabbitohs -4.71 -3.90 -0.80
Warriors -5.25 -6.97 1.70
Knights -6.95 -8.43 1.50
Titans -8.46 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 15 16 – 20 3.80 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 30 – 12 6.40 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 16 24 – 20 3.00 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 17 20 – 8 7.00 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 18 – 14 12.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 17 8 – 10 23.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 18 54 – 0 1.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 18 28 – 30 13.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Mar 22 Storm 15.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 23 Panthers -4.50
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Mar 23 Broncos -1.80
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 24 Raiders 11.40
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 Sea Eagles -4.00
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 24 Sharks -1.80
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 25 Dragons -7.30
8 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 25 Roosters 10.70

 

March 13, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.02 16.18 -0.20
Crusaders 15.45 15.23 0.20
Lions 11.98 13.81 -1.80
Highlanders 10.18 10.29 -0.10
Chiefs 8.60 9.29 -0.70
Blues 1.32 -0.24 1.60
Sharks 1.27 1.02 0.30
Stormers 0.68 1.48 -0.80
Brumbies -1.72 1.75 -3.50
Waratahs -3.37 -3.92 0.50
Bulls -4.20 -4.79 0.60
Jaguares -4.49 -4.64 0.20
Reds -9.64 -9.47 -0.20
Rebels -10.21 -14.96 4.80
Sunwolves -19.27 -18.42 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 09 33 – 15 12.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 09 33 – 10 -8.80 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 10 29 – 19 3.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 10 20 – 14 -2.40 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Mar 10 50 – 22 24.10 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 10 35 – 38 17.10 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Waratahs Mar 10 38 – 28 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls Mar 16 Chiefs 16.80
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 17 Crusaders -1.80
3 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 17 Brumbies 1.00
4 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 17 Stormers 3.40
5 Lions vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 Lions 35.30
6 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 17 Jaguares 9.10
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 18 Waratahs 10.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.79 16.73 0.10
Panthers 3.75 2.64 1.10
Cowboys 3.12 2.97 0.20
Broncos 3.09 4.78 -1.70
Raiders 2.70 3.50 -0.80
Sharks 2.05 2.20 -0.20
Dragons 1.25 -0.45 1.70
Eels 0.40 1.51 -1.10
Roosters -0.06 0.13 -0.20
Sea Eagles -1.44 -1.07 -0.40
Wests Tigers -3.44 -3.63 0.20
Bulldogs -3.49 -3.43 -0.10
Rabbitohs -5.27 -3.90 -1.40
Warriors -5.60 -6.97 1.40
Knights -8.05 -8.43 0.40
Titans -8.11 -8.91 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 08 34 – 12 -2.20 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Mar 09 19 – 18 -4.40 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 09 20 – 14 3.80 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 10 10 – 8 -0.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Mar 10 20 – 32 7.60 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 10 18 – 36 -17.20 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 11 24 – 4 4.10 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 11 30 – 28 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 15 Sharks 3.80
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 Roosters 6.40
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 16 Broncos 3.00
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 17 Warriors 7.00
5 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 Panthers 12.00
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 17 Storm 23.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 18 Sea Eagles 1.20
8 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 18 Raiders 13.80

 

March 6, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.86 15.23 0.60
Hurricanes 15.61 16.18 -0.60
Lions 13.19 13.81 -0.60
Highlanders 9.87 10.29 -0.40
Chiefs 8.60 9.29 -0.70
Sharks 1.03 1.02 0.00
Stormers 0.99 1.48 -0.50
Brumbies 0.19 1.75 -1.60
Blues 0.11 -0.24 0.30
Waratahs -2.88 -3.92 1.00
Bulls -3.70 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.98 -4.64 -0.30
Reds -10.14 -9.47 -0.70
Rebels -12.12 -14.96 2.80
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 02 21 – 27 -4.80 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 02 18 – 10 -8.90 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 03 45 – 28 19.10 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 03 17 – 37 -0.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 03 24 – 24 9.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 03 35 – 49 -13.30 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 9 – 34 -15.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 09 Highlanders 12.90
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 09 Brumbies -8.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 10 Hurricanes 3.30
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 10 Bulls -2.40
5 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Mar 10 Sharks 24.10
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 10 Lions 17.10
7 Jaguares vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Jaguares 1.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.73 16.73 -0.00
Broncos 4.78 4.78 -0.00
Raiders 3.50 3.50 -0.00
Cowboys 2.97 2.97 0.00
Panthers 2.64 2.64 0.00
Sharks 2.20 2.20 -0.00
Eels 1.51 1.51 -0.00
Roosters 0.13 0.13 -0.00
Dragons -0.45 -0.45 -0.00
Sea Eagles -1.07 -1.07 -0.00
Bulldogs -3.43 -3.43 -0.00
Wests Tigers -3.63 -3.63 0.00
Rabbitohs -3.90 -3.90 -0.00
Warriors -6.97 -6.97 0.00
Knights -8.43 -8.43 0.00
Titans -8.91 -8.91 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 08 Broncos -2.20
2 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Mar 09 Sea Eagles -4.40
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 09 Cowboys 3.80
4 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 10 Roosters -0.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Mar 10 Rabbitohs 7.60
6 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 10 Storm -17.20
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 11 Panthers 4.10
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 11 Raiders -9.40

 

February 27, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.98 15.23 0.80
Hurricanes 15.04 16.18 -1.10
Lions 13.15 13.81 -0.70
Highlanders 9.87 10.29 -0.40
Chiefs 8.53 9.29 -0.80
Sharks 1.57 1.02 0.60
Brumbies 1.20 1.75 -0.50
Stormers 0.86 1.48 -0.60
Blues 0.18 -0.24 0.40
Waratahs -3.42 -3.92 0.50
Bulls -3.65 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.41 -4.64 0.20
Reds -11.15 -9.47 -1.70
Rebels -13.29 -14.96 1.70
Sunwolves -17.87 -18.42 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 23 41 – 34 14.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Feb 23 45 – 19 -2.00 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Feb 24 25 – 32 -16.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 45 – 23 9.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers Feb 24 34 – 27 -1.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Feb 24 47 – 27 21.80 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Hurricanes Feb 24 21 – 19 -17.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 02 Chiefs -4.80
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 02 Brumbies -8.90
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 03 Crusaders 19.10
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 03 Rebels -0.60
5 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 03 Sharks 9.00
6 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 03 Lions -13.30
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 Hurricanes -15.40

 

February 20, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.18 16.18 0.00
Crusaders 15.23 15.23 0.00
Lions 13.25 13.81 -0.60
Highlanders 10.29 10.29 -0.00
Chiefs 9.29 9.29 0.00
Brumbies 1.75 1.75 0.00
Sharks 1.57 1.02 0.60
Stormers 1.36 1.48 -0.10
Blues -0.24 -0.24 -0.00
Waratahs -3.92 -3.92 -0.00
Jaguares -4.51 -4.64 0.10
Bulls -4.79 -4.79 0.00
Reds -9.47 -9.47 0.00
Rebels -14.96 -14.96 0.00
Sunwolves -18.42 -18.42 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 17 28 – 20 10.10 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 17 26 – 19 16.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 23 Highlanders 14.00
2 Rebels vs. Reds Feb 23 Reds -2.00
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Feb 24 Brumbies -16.20
4 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Crusaders 9.40
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers Feb 24 Stormers -1.30
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Feb 24 Lions 21.80
7 Bulls vs. Hurricanes Feb 24 Hurricanes -17.00

 

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