Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 24, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.03 16.18 -0.10
Crusaders 14.50 15.23 -0.70
Highlanders 11.42 10.29 1.10
Lions 10.20 13.81 -3.60
Chiefs 9.89 9.29 0.60
Bulls -0.46 -4.79 4.30
Stormers -0.48 1.48 -2.00
Sharks -0.59 1.02 -1.60
Blues -1.13 -0.24 -0.90
Waratahs -2.18 -3.92 1.70
Brumbies -2.54 1.75 -4.30
Jaguares -3.95 -4.64 0.70
Rebels -9.71 -14.96 5.30
Reds -9.99 -9.47 -0.50
Sunwolves -18.43 -18.42 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 20 16 – 34 -7.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Apr 20 0 – 29 -5.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 21 33 – 11 39.00 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 21 12 – 36 -14.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Rebels Apr 21 28 – 10 12.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Apr 21 24 – 17 2.90 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Jaguares Apr 22 20 – 25 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Apr 27 Hurricanes 38.50
2 Stormers vs. Rebels Apr 27 Stormers 13.20
3 Reds vs. Lions Apr 28 Lions -16.20
4 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 28 Blues 6.80
5 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 28 Crusaders -13.00
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Apr 28 Highlanders -7.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.14 16.73 -3.60
Panthers 4.52 2.64 1.90
Dragons 4.48 -0.45 4.90
Sharks 1.08 2.20 -1.10
Wests Tigers 0.77 -3.63 4.40
Broncos 0.76 4.78 -4.00
Rabbitohs 0.54 -3.90 4.40
Roosters 0.53 0.13 0.40
Raiders -0.30 3.50 -3.80
Cowboys -0.85 2.97 -3.80
Warriors -1.39 -6.97 5.60
Eels -2.48 1.51 -4.00
Bulldogs -3.14 -3.43 0.30
Sea Eagles -4.72 -1.07 -3.70
Knights -6.82 -8.43 1.60
Titans -8.45 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 0 – 6 0.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 20 – 12 -2.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 20 – 34 -8.60 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 42 – 22 1.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 20 – 22 12.60 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 26 – 14 10.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 44 – 10 0.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 26 – 22 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Dragons 7.00
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 19.00
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 Rabbitohs 2.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 Sea Eagles 5.10
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 Panthers 10.70
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -6.50
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 Cowboys 2.40
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 Wests Tigers -0.30

 

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April 17, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.03 16.18 -0.10
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Highlanders 10.81 10.29 0.50
Chiefs 9.33 9.29 0.00
Lions 8.80 13.81 -5.00
Stormers -0.23 1.48 -1.70
Blues -0.52 -0.24 -0.30
Waratahs -0.78 -3.92 3.10
Bulls -0.79 -4.79 4.00
Sharks -0.84 1.02 -1.90
Brumbies -1.83 1.75 -3.60
Jaguares -4.66 -4.64 -0.00
Rebels -9.38 -14.96 5.60
Reds -9.43 -9.47 0.00
Sunwolves -19.45 -18.42 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 25 – 13 10.00 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Blues Apr 14 10 – 24 -15.00 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Jaguares Apr 14 22 – 25 -0.40 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 14 43 – 17 15.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Apr 14 37 – 16 10.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 14 10 – 40 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 20 Highlanders -7.80
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Apr 20 Lions -5.60
3 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 21 Crusaders 39.00
4 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 21 Chiefs -14.80
5 Bulls vs. Rebels Apr 21 Bulls 12.60
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Apr 21 Sharks 2.90
7 Brumbies vs. Jaguares Apr 22 Brumbies 6.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.77 16.73 -4.00
Dragons 5.25 -0.45 5.70
Panthers 4.88 2.64 2.20
Wests Tigers 1.80 -3.63 5.40
Broncos 1.14 4.78 -3.60
Raiders 1.02 3.50 -2.50
Sharks 0.72 2.20 -1.50
Roosters 0.10 0.13 -0.00
Rabbitohs -0.77 -3.90 3.10
Cowboys -0.97 2.97 -3.90
Warriors -2.15 -6.97 4.80
Sea Eagles -2.38 -1.07 -1.30
Bulldogs -2.71 -3.43 0.70
Eels -4.83 1.51 -6.30
Knights -7.84 -8.43 0.60
Titans -8.34 -8.91 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Apr 12 14 – 26 6.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Knights Apr 13 40 – 14 23.20 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Sharks Apr 13 40 – 20 5.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 14 18 – 27 2.90 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 10 – 27 8.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 18 – 2 7.70 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Titans Apr 15 35 – 12 15.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 12 – 38 2.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 Bulldogs 0.20
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 Dragons -2.90
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 Storm -8.60
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 Rabbitohs 1.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 Wests Tigers 12.60
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 Cowboys 10.40
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 Eels 0.60
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 Panthers -1.20

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.35 7.47 3.90
Exeter Chiefs 10.08 7.99 2.10
Wasps 5.98 5.89 0.10
Leicester Tigers 3.92 4.64 -0.70
Sale Sharks 1.07 -1.73 2.80
Bath Rugby 0.15 1.23 -1.10
Gloucester Rugby 0.08 0.21 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -1.36 -3.33 2.00
Harlequins -2.13 0.84 -3.00
Northampton Saints -2.15 1.53 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -5.67 -4.37 -1.30
London Irish -5.89 -4.94 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 35 – 30 -0.00 FALSE
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins Apr 14 37 – 9 3.70 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 14 21 – 27 10.20 FALSE
4 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 14 30 – 15 14.60 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 15 5 – 45 -11.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Bath Rugby Apr 15 41 – 6 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 8.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Exeter Chiefs 12.00
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 28 Gloucester Rugby 2.90
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Apr 28 Harlequins -0.50
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Apr 29 Saracens -14.20
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Apr 29 Wasps 11.10

 

April 11, 2018

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 20

By

I have been meaning to add some additional competitions to my predictions. I have now implemented predictions for the Aviva Premiership, starting a bit late in the season, with only a few rounds to go.

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.63 7.47 3.20
Exeter Chiefs 9.19 7.99 1.20
Wasps 5.96 5.89 0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.48 4.64 -0.20
Sale Sharks 1.37 -1.73 3.10
Bath Rugby 0.86 1.23 -0.40
Gloucester Rugby -0.69 0.21 -0.90
Harlequins -1.36 0.84 -2.20
Newcastle Falcons -1.66 -3.33 1.70
Northampton Saints -2.70 1.53 -4.20
London Irish -5.00 -4.94 -0.10
Worcester Warriors -5.65 -4.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Apr 07 28 – 27 -1.90 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Apr 08 13 – 63 -7.90 TRUE
3 Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 07 19 – 34 -2.70 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 08 27 – 13 -2.10 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. London Irish Apr 08 5 – 35 8.90 FALSE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 09 46 – 10 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Sale Sharks -0.00
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins Apr 14 Gloucester Rugby 3.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 14 Leicester Tigers 10.20
4 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 14 Wasps 14.60
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 15 Exeter Chiefs -11.20
6 Saracens vs. Bath Rugby Apr 15 Saracens 12.80

 

April 10, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.91 16.18 -0.30
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Highlanders 10.17 10.29 -0.10
Chiefs 9.45 9.29 0.20
Lions 8.80 13.81 -5.00
Sharks 1.44 1.02 0.40
Stormers -0.23 1.48 -1.70
Blues -0.46 -0.24 -0.20
Brumbies -1.19 1.75 -2.90
Waratahs -1.38 -3.92 2.50
Bulls -3.07 -4.79 1.70
Jaguares -4.82 -4.64 -0.20
Reds -8.83 -9.47 0.60
Rebels -9.23 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -19.51 -18.42 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 38 – 37 20.80 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Apr 07 29 – 50 -13.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 07 21 – 19 15.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Apr 07 45 – 21 9.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 07 52 – 31 11.40 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Crusaders Apr 07 14 – 40 -15.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 Hurricanes 10.00
2 Sunwolves vs. Blues Apr 14 Blues -15.00
3 Rebels vs. Jaguares Apr 14 Jaguares -0.40
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 14 Highlanders 15.40
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Apr 14 Waratahs 10.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 14 Sharks 8.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

  Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.57 16.73 -4.20
Panthers 4.33 2.64 1.70
Dragons 4.23 -0.45 4.70
Sharks 1.74 2.20 -0.50
Roosters 1.39 0.13 1.30
Cowboys 0.80 2.97 -2.20
Raiders 0.43 3.50 -3.10
Broncos 0.31 4.78 -4.50
Wests Tigers -0.22 -3.63 3.40
Sea Eagles -0.36 -1.07 0.70
Warriors -1.32 -6.97 5.70
Rabbitohs -2.07 -3.90 1.80
Eels -4.24 1.51 -5.80
Bulldogs -4.48 -3.43 -1.10
Knights -7.65 -8.43 0.80
Titans -7.78 -8.91 1.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

  Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Apr 05 26 – 10 6.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 06 10 – 28 6.80 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 16 – 12 10.20 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 07 11 – 10 -15.00 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 07 22 – 12 1.10 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Broncos Apr 07 15 – 10 -6.60 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 32 – 20 -7.10 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 08 6 – 12 -5.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Apr 12 Roosters 6.50
2 Storm vs. Knights Apr 13 Storm 23.20
3 Dragons vs. Sharks Apr 13 Dragons 5.50
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 14 Warriors 2.90
5 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 Cowboys 8.30
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 Raiders 7.70
7 Panthers vs. Titans Apr 15 Panthers 15.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 Sea Eagles 2.90

 

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April 3, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.10 16.18 0.90
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Chiefs 10.23 9.29 0.90
Highlanders 10.17 10.29 -0.10
Lions 8.22 13.81 -5.60
Stormers 0.35 1.48 -1.10
Sharks 0.25 1.02 -0.80
Blues -1.24 -0.24 -1.00
Waratahs -1.85 -3.92 2.10
Brumbies -2.06 1.75 -3.80
Bulls -3.07 -4.79 1.70
Jaguares -4.16 -4.64 0.50
Reds -7.95 -9.47 1.50
Rebels -9.23 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 30 27 – 22 3.40 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 19 – 50 -21.10 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 40 – 63 6.00 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 31 17 – 24 4.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 31 33 – 23 -1.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 8 – 14 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 Hurricanes 20.80
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Apr 07 Waratahs -13.20
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 07 Chiefs 15.00
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Apr 07 Brumbies 9.40
5 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 07 Lions 11.40
6 Jaguares vs. Crusaders Apr 07 Crusaders -15.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.70 16.73 -3.00
Dragons 4.66 -0.45 5.10
Panthers 4.29 2.64 1.70
Sharks 3.48 2.20 1.30
Cowboys 1.42 2.97 -1.50
Broncos 1.12 4.78 -3.70
Sea Eagles 0.98 -1.07 2.00
Raiders -0.23 3.50 -3.70
Roosters -0.35 0.13 -0.50
Wests Tigers -1.35 -3.63 2.30
Warriors -1.94 -6.97 5.00
Rabbitohs -2.50 -3.90 1.40
Bulldogs -3.82 -3.43 -0.40
Eels -4.21 1.51 -5.70
Knights -8.46 -8.43 -0.00
Titans -9.12 -8.91 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Mar 29 14 – 33 3.20 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 30 20 – 16 4.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 30 14 – 4 -10.00 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 6 – 30 11.00 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 31 32 – 16 2.30 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 01 30 – 12 15.80 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 01 14 – 26 17.30 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 02 30 – 20 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Apr 05 Raiders 6.60
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 06 Sharks 6.80
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 Dragons 10.20
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 07 Storm -15.00
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 07 Warriors 1.10
6 Knights vs. Broncos Apr 07 Broncos -6.60
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 Sea Eagles -7.10
8 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 08 Panthers -5.50

 

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