Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 6, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.42 10.29 2.10
Broncos 8.47 9.81 -1.30
Roosters 3.11 11.20 -8.10
Storm 2.78 4.41 -1.60
Bulldogs 2.25 1.50 0.80
Rabbitohs 1.67 -1.20 2.90
Sharks 1.59 -1.06 2.60
Raiders 0.23 -0.55 0.80
Sea Eagles -1.06 0.36 -1.40
Panthers -1.74 -3.06 1.30
Eels -1.87 -4.62 2.80
Dragons -2.67 -0.10 -2.60
Warriors -4.59 -7.47 2.90
Wests Tigers -5.05 -4.06 -1.00
Titans -5.32 -8.39 3.10
Knights -8.56 -5.41 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 31 12 – 16 1.10 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 01 16 – 24 -11.30 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Knights Apr 02 18 – 14 16.00 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 02 26 – 34 -2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons Apr 02 36 – 0 15.20 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 03 28 – 32 14.20 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 03 18 – 20 3.80 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 04 8 – 22 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Apr 07 Broncos 14.10
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 08 Rabbitohs 1.60
3 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 09 Eels 0.90
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 Warriors 0.50
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 09 Cowboys -11.20
6 Sharks vs. Titans Apr 10 Sharks 9.90
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 Wests Tigers -0.50
8 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 11 Storm 3.50

 

March 30, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.95 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 7.73 6.80 0.90
Hurricanes 5.64 7.26 -1.60
Chiefs 5.34 2.68 2.70
Brumbies 5.21 3.15 2.10
Waratahs 3.34 4.88 -1.50
Stormers 1.48 -0.62 2.10
Sharks 0.10 -1.64 1.70
Lions -0.72 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -1.61 -0.74 -0.90
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -6.35 -6.33 -0.00
Jaguares -8.69 -10.00 1.30
Cheetahs -9.60 -9.27 -0.30
Reds -10.01 -9.81 -0.20
Force -10.79 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -12.12 -10.00 -2.10
Kings -16.40 -13.66 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 25 42 – 20 26.60 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Force Mar 26 53 – 10 17.00 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 26 3 – 27 -8.20 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Mar 26 27 – 30 -7.00 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies Mar 26 18 – 25 -11.30 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Crusaders Mar 26 14 – 19 -4.80 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Mar 26 8 – 13 -6.30 TRUE
8 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 27 13 – 15 -10.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Force Apr 01 Highlanders 22.50
2 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 Crusaders -5.70
3 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 02 Blues 8.00
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Apr 02 Brumbies 3.90
5 Kings vs. Sunwolves Apr 02 Sunwolves -0.30
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 02 Bulls 11.50
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 03 Waratahs 13.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 11.00 10.29 0.70
Broncos 8.74 9.81 -1.10
Roosters 4.37 11.20 -6.80
Bulldogs 3.76 1.50 2.30
Storm 3.63 4.41 -0.80
Rabbitohs 1.27 -1.20 2.50
Sharks 1.17 -1.06 2.20
Sea Eagles -0.65 0.36 -1.00
Dragons -1.25 -0.10 -1.20
Raiders -1.28 -0.55 -0.70
Eels -1.40 -4.62 3.20
Panthers -2.21 -3.06 0.80
Wests Tigers -4.64 -4.06 -0.60
Titans -5.59 -8.39 2.80
Warriors -5.85 -7.47 1.60
Knights -9.41 -5.41 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 25 12 – 42 5.20 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 25 21 – 20 0.70 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 20 – 24 9.20 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 26 20 – 22 9.70 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 27 14 – 12 4.30 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 28 40 – 18 5.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Mar 28 0 – 8 1.10 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 28 14 – 6 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 31 Sea Eagles 1.10
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 01 Broncos -11.30
3 Storm vs. Knights Apr 02 Storm 16.00
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 02 Sharks -2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons Apr 02 Cowboys 15.20
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 03 Roosters 14.20
7 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 03 Eels 3.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 04 Bulldogs 8.00

 

March 23, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.94 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 6.78 6.80 -0.00
Hurricanes 5.92 7.26 -1.30
Brumbies 5.46 3.15 2.30
Waratahs 3.87 4.88 -1.00
Chiefs 3.78 2.68 1.10
Stormers 1.56 -0.62 2.20
Sharks 0.11 -1.64 1.80
Lions -0.72 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -1.37 -0.74 -0.60
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -5.40 -6.33 0.90
Jaguares -8.77 -10.00 1.20
Force -9.23 -8.43 -0.80
Cheetahs -9.85 -9.27 -0.60
Reds -10.55 -9.81 -0.70
Sunwolves -12.36 -10.00 -2.40
Kings -16.67 -13.66 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Mar 18 41 – 6 17.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 18 26 – 30 1.80 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 18 16 – 16 2.30 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 19 9 – 35 0.20 FALSE
5 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 19 57 – 24 29.10 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Blues Mar 19 25 – 25 -2.10 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Mar 19 39 – 22 12.00 TRUE
8 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 19 31 – 11 -2.60 FALSE
9 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 19 26 – 30 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 25 Hurricanes 26.60
2 Chiefs vs. Force Mar 26 Chiefs 17.00
3 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 26 Highlanders -8.20
4 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Mar 26 Bulls -7.00
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies Mar 26 Brumbies -11.30
6 Sharks vs. Crusaders Mar 26 Crusaders -4.80
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Mar 26 Stormers -6.30
8 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 27 Waratahs -10.90

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 11.02 10.29 0.70
Broncos 8.71 9.81 -1.10
Roosters 5.20 11.20 -6.00
Storm 4.25 4.41 -0.20
Rabbitohs 3.63 -1.20 4.80
Bulldogs 1.40 1.50 -0.10
Sharks 0.55 -1.06 1.60
Raiders -0.35 -0.55 0.20
Dragons -1.06 -0.10 -1.00
Sea Eagles -1.48 0.36 -1.80
Eels -2.05 -4.62 2.60
Panthers -2.39 -3.06 0.70
Wests Tigers -3.99 -4.06 0.10
Titans -6.51 -8.39 1.90
Warriors -7.02 -7.47 0.40
Knights -8.24 -5.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Mar 17 40 – 0 4.00 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 18 6 – 20 9.70 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 19 24 – 24 -5.80 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 19 23 – 22 -9.60 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 30 – 18 -1.40 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Storm Mar 20 14 – 21 -7.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 8 – 6 -2.40 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Mar 21 22 – 12 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 25 Rabbitohs 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 25 Broncos 0.70
3 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 Raiders 9.20
4 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 26 Roosters 9.70
5 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 27 Dragons 4.30
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 28 Warriors 5.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Mar 28 Wests Tigers 1.10
8 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 28 Storm -0.70

 

March 16, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.71 9.84 -1.10
Brumbies 6.82 3.15 3.70
Highlanders 6.43 6.80 -0.40
Hurricanes 4.83 7.26 -2.40
Waratahs 4.22 4.88 -0.70
Chiefs 4.09 2.68 1.40
Stormers 0.20 -0.62 0.80
Sharks -0.03 -1.64 1.60
Lions -1.01 -1.80 0.80
Bulls -1.24 -0.74 -0.50
Blues -4.60 -5.51 0.90
Rebels -6.97 -6.33 -0.60
Force -8.15 -8.43 0.30
Jaguares -9.08 -10.00 0.90
Cheetahs -9.56 -9.27 -0.30
Reds -10.67 -9.81 -0.90
Sunwolves -10.79 -10.00 -0.80
Kings -16.44 -13.66 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 11 19 – 23 -6.20 TRUE
2 Force vs. Brumbies Mar 11 14 – 31 -10.70 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Lions Mar 12 34 – 15 10.40 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 12 25 – 23 7.90 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs Mar 12 31 – 32 3.30 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 12 24 – 58 -14.10 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 12 13 – 18 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Mar 18 Hurricanes 17.00
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 18 Waratahs 1.80
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 18 Bulls 2.30
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 19 Sunwolves 0.20
5 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 19 Crusaders 29.10
6 Reds vs. Blues Mar 19 Blues -2.10
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Mar 19 Lions 12.00
8 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 19 Brumbies -2.60
9 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 19 Chiefs -9.20

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 9.46 9.81 -0.30
Cowboys 8.62 10.29 -1.70
Roosters 7.61 11.20 -3.60
Storm 4.28 4.41 -0.10
Rabbitohs 3.98 -1.20 5.20
Bulldogs 3.02 1.50 1.50
Sharks 1.30 -1.06 2.40
Raiders 0.12 -0.55 0.70
Dragons -1.41 -0.10 -1.30
Sea Eagles -2.23 0.36 -2.60
Wests Tigers -3.05 -4.06 1.00
Panthers -3.15 -3.06 -0.10
Eels -3.67 -4.62 1.00
Warriors -7.04 -7.47 0.40
Titans -7.45 -8.39 0.90
Knights -8.71 -5.41 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 10 16 – 18 -3.40 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Warriors Mar 11 25 – 10 21.40 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Mar 12 21 – 20 -5.40 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Mar 12 48 – 6 11.60 TRUE
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Mar 12 20 – 16 -11.40 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 13 30 – 2 2.20 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Titans Mar 13 34 – 16 14.10 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 36 – 22 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Mar 17 Cowboys 4.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 18 Bulldogs 9.70
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 19 Raiders -5.80
4 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 19 Broncos -9.60
5 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 Wests Tigers -1.40
6 Warriors vs. Storm Mar 20 Storm -7.30
7 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -2.40
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Mar 21 Sharks -0.50

 

March 9, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.71 9.84 -1.10
Brumbies 6.44 3.15 3.30
Highlanders 5.92 6.80 -0.90
Hurricanes 4.97 7.26 -2.30
Waratahs 4.22 4.88 -0.70
Chiefs 2.90 2.68 0.20
Stormers 0.80 -0.62 1.40
Lions -0.50 -1.80 1.30
Sharks -0.63 -1.64 1.00
Bulls -1.24 -0.74 -0.50
Blues -4.73 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -6.61 -6.33 -0.30
Force -7.77 -8.43 0.70
Jaguares -9.08 -10.00 0.90
Cheetahs -9.81 -9.27 -0.50
Sunwolves -10.53 -10.00 -0.50
Reds -11.03 -9.81 -1.20
Kings -15.25 -13.66 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 17 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 04 28 – 13 17.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 04 32 – 15 4.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Lions Mar 05 32 – 36 9.00 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 05 17 – 16 4.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 05 6 – 22 2.50 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Rebels Mar 05 45 – 25 7.90 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Mar 05 10 – 20 -6.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 05 19 – 15 13.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 11 Hurricanes -6.20
2 Force vs. Brumbies Mar 11 Brumbies -10.70
3 Highlanders vs. Lions Mar 12 Highlanders 10.40
4 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 12 Rebels 7.90
5 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs Mar 12 Sunwolves 3.30
6 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 12 Chiefs -14.10
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 12 Stormers 4.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 9.93 9.81 0.10
Cowboys 9.69 10.29 -0.60
Roosters 8.07 11.20 -3.10
Storm 3.97 4.41 -0.40
Bulldogs 3.13 1.50 1.60
Rabbitohs 1.93 -1.20 3.10
Dragons 0.34 -0.10 0.40
Raiders -0.35 -0.55 0.20
Sharks -0.46 -1.06 0.60
Sea Eagles -1.26 0.36 -1.60
Panthers -3.26 -3.06 -0.20
Wests Tigers -4.01 -4.06 0.00
Eels -4.75 -4.62 -0.10
Knights -6.66 -5.41 -1.20
Titans -7.14 -8.39 1.20
Warriors -7.51 -7.47 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 03 4 – 17 -11.40 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 04 6 – 28 1.90 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 05 30 – 22 5.50 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 05 34 – 26 7.40 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 05 20 – 14 14.40 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 06 10 – 42 15.40 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 06 30 – 12 0.00 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 07 18 – 16 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 10 Bulldogs -3.40
2 Broncos vs. Warriors Mar 11 Broncos 21.40
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Mar 12 Roosters -5.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Mar 12 Rabbitohs 11.60
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Mar 12 Cowboys -11.40
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 13 Sharks 2.20
7 Storm vs. Titans Mar 13 Storm 14.10
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 Wests Tigers 0.30

 

March 2, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.84 9.84 -1.00
Highlanders 6.15 6.80 -0.60
Brumbies 5.68 3.15 2.50
Waratahs 4.99 4.88 0.10
Hurricanes 4.73 7.26 -2.50
Chiefs 3.68 2.68 1.00
Stormers 0.60 -0.62 1.20
Sharks -0.05 -1.64 1.60
Lions -1.28 -1.80 0.50
Bulls -1.96 -0.74 -1.20
Blues -4.86 -5.51 0.60
Rebels -5.89 -6.33 0.40
Force -8.88 -8.43 -0.40
Cheetahs -9.62 -9.27 -0.30
Jaguares -9.66 -10.00 0.30
Reds -9.92 -9.81 -0.10
Sunwolves -10.53 -10.00 -0.50
Kings -15.25 -13.66 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 44.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Feb 26 33 – 31 -8.80 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Feb 26 52 – 10 -0.10 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Jaguares Feb 26 33 – 34 4.70 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Feb 27 13 – 26 -4.20 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 27 21 – 27 10.70 FALSE
6 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 27 30 – 10 18.20 TRUE
7 Force vs. Rebels Feb 27 19 – 25 1.40 FALSE
8 Kings vs. Sharks Feb 27 8 – 43 -8.50 TRUE
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 27 33 – 9 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 04 Crusaders 17.20
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Brumbies 4.20
3 Chiefs vs. Lions Mar 05 Chiefs 9.00
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 05 Highlanders 4.90
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 05 Reds 2.50
6 Bulls vs. Rebels Mar 05 Bulls 7.90
7 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Mar 05 Stormers -6.70
8 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 05 Sharks 13.60

 

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