March 16, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.71 9.84 -1.10
Brumbies 6.82 3.15 3.70
Highlanders 6.43 6.80 -0.40
Hurricanes 4.83 7.26 -2.40
Waratahs 4.22 4.88 -0.70
Chiefs 4.09 2.68 1.40
Stormers 0.20 -0.62 0.80
Sharks -0.03 -1.64 1.60
Lions -1.01 -1.80 0.80
Bulls -1.24 -0.74 -0.50
Blues -4.60 -5.51 0.90
Rebels -6.97 -6.33 -0.60
Force -8.15 -8.43 0.30
Jaguares -9.08 -10.00 0.90
Cheetahs -9.56 -9.27 -0.30
Reds -10.67 -9.81 -0.90
Sunwolves -10.79 -10.00 -0.80
Kings -16.44 -13.66 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 11 19 – 23 -6.20 TRUE
2 Force vs. Brumbies Mar 11 14 – 31 -10.70 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Lions Mar 12 34 – 15 10.40 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 12 25 – 23 7.90 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs Mar 12 31 – 32 3.30 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 12 24 – 58 -14.10 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 12 13 – 18 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Mar 18 Hurricanes 17.00
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 18 Waratahs 1.80
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 18 Bulls 2.30
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 19 Sunwolves 0.20
5 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 19 Crusaders 29.10
6 Reds vs. Blues Mar 19 Blues -2.10
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Mar 19 Lions 12.00
8 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 19 Brumbies -2.60
9 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 19 Chiefs -9.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Brent Graham

    There’s no point giving a success rate of wins when you are predicting the handicaps .
    I think you need to wake up
    Do it right for a change .

    8 years ago

    • avatar
      Thomas Lumley

      Perhaps you could clarify as to why there’s no point in predicting wins this way?

      8 years ago

    • avatar

      I have no idea what you are talking about. Predicting the handicaps?

      8 years ago