March 30, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 11.00 10.29 0.70
Broncos 8.74 9.81 -1.10
Roosters 4.37 11.20 -6.80
Bulldogs 3.76 1.50 2.30
Storm 3.63 4.41 -0.80
Rabbitohs 1.27 -1.20 2.50
Sharks 1.17 -1.06 2.20
Sea Eagles -0.65 0.36 -1.00
Dragons -1.25 -0.10 -1.20
Raiders -1.28 -0.55 -0.70
Eels -1.40 -4.62 3.20
Panthers -2.21 -3.06 0.80
Wests Tigers -4.64 -4.06 -0.60
Titans -5.59 -8.39 2.80
Warriors -5.85 -7.47 1.60
Knights -9.41 -5.41 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 25 12 – 42 5.20 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 25 21 – 20 0.70 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 20 – 24 9.20 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 26 20 – 22 9.70 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 27 14 – 12 4.30 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 28 40 – 18 5.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Mar 28 0 – 8 1.10 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 28 14 – 6 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 31 Sea Eagles 1.10
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 01 Broncos -11.30
3 Storm vs. Knights Apr 02 Storm 16.00
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 02 Sharks -2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons Apr 02 Cowboys 15.20
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 03 Roosters 14.20
7 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 03 Eels 3.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 04 Bulldogs 8.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »