Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 24, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

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Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals: Correction

I made a mistake in entering the fixtures and had the Waratahs playing away.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40
Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50
Highlanders 5.62 -2.54 8.20
Brumbies 5.03 2.20 2.80
Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40
Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 24 – 14 5.40 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 19 – 39 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 Hurricanes 7.80
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 Waratahs 6.40

 

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June 17, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.66 9.09 -0.40
Broncos 6.79 4.03 2.80
Cowboys 6.35 9.52 -3.20
Storm 4.20 4.36 -0.20
Rabbitohs 3.88 13.06 -9.20
Dragons 2.70 -1.74 4.40
Warriors -0.88 3.07 -4.00
Raiders -1.36 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -1.40 3.69 -5.10
Bulldogs -1.51 0.21 -1.70
Sea Eagles -3.17 2.68 -5.80
Eels -3.44 -7.19 3.70
Knights -3.94 -0.28 -3.70
Wests Tigers -4.78 -13.13 8.30
Titans -4.86 -8.20 3.30
Sharks -5.92 -10.76 4.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 12 34 – 6 -10.80 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 13 21 – 25 -5.80 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 28 – 14 -2.70 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Eels Jun 15 22 – 26 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 Sea Eagles 4.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 20 Bulldogs 2.90
3 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 20 Cowboys -4.70
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 20 Titans 0.00
5 Knights vs. Sharks Jun 21 Knights 5.00
6 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 21 Storm 0.40
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Jun 22 Roosters -3.00

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40
Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50
Highlanders 5.29 -2.54 7.80
Chiefs 3.91 2.23 1.70
Brumbies 3.76 2.20 1.60
Stormers 1.74 1.68 0.10
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 12 7 – 44 -2.10 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Force Jun 12 11 – 13 7.50 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Jun 13 24 – 37 -1.00 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 13 – 21 0.70 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Jun 13 31 – 5 19.30 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 13 29 – 42 15.70 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers Jun 13 34 – 12 -1.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 Highlanders 5.40
2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 Stormers 2.50

 

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June 10, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.81 9.09 -0.30
Broncos 6.79 4.03 2.80
Rabbitohs 6.46 13.06 -6.60
Cowboys 6.35 9.52 -3.20
Storm 5.38 4.36 1.00
Dragons 2.70 -1.74 4.40
Bulldogs -0.35 0.21 -0.60
Warriors -1.02 3.07 -4.10
Raiders -1.36 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -1.40 3.69 -5.10
Sea Eagles -3.17 2.68 -5.80
Knights -3.94 -0.28 -3.70
Eels -4.62 -7.19 2.60
Sharks -5.92 -10.76 4.80
Titans -6.02 -8.20 2.20
Wests Tigers -7.37 -13.13 5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 44 – 10 9.60 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 05 20 – 27 3.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 06 22 – 44 3.90 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 06 0 – 20 -1.20 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 06 36 – 4 8.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jun 07 10 – 4 -14.60 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 29 – 16 -2.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 08 30 – 36 -8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 12 Rabbitohs -10.80
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 13 Roosters -5.80
3 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 Bulldogs -2.70
4 Storm vs. Eels Jun 15 Storm 13.00

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.03 10.42 -0.40
Hurricanes 7.74 2.89 4.80
Waratahs 7.03 10.00 -3.00
Brumbies 4.50 2.20 2.30
Chiefs 4.48 2.23 2.30
Highlanders 3.45 -2.54 6.00
Stormers 3.03 1.68 1.30
Bulls 1.96 2.88 -0.90
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -1.94 3.91 -5.90
Blues -2.65 1.44 -4.10
Rebels -4.28 -9.53 5.20
Force -7.77 -4.67 -3.10
Reds -8.25 -4.98 -3.30
Cheetahs -9.79 -5.55 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 05 56 – 20 4.90 TRUE
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 05 20 – 33 -7.50 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Bulls Jun 06 21 – 20 -2.30 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Jun 06 11 – 34 -6.70 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Chiefs Jun 06 3 – 24 -6.50 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs Jun 06 33 – 58 -10.60 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 06 19 – 19 8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 12 Highlanders -2.10
2 Rebels vs. Force Jun 12 Rebels 7.50
3 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Jun 13 Crusaders -1.00
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 Chiefs 0.70
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Jun 13 Waratahs 19.30
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 13 Bulls 15.70
7 Sharks vs. Stormers Jun 13 Stormers -1.00

 

June 3, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.22 9.09 1.10
Cowboys 6.53 9.52 -3.00
Broncos 5.13 4.03 1.10
Rabbitohs 4.84 13.06 -8.20
Storm 4.08 4.36 -0.30
Dragons 3.76 -1.74 5.50
Warriors 0.60 3.07 -2.50
Panthers -0.10 3.69 -3.80
Bulldogs -1.41 0.21 -1.60
Sea Eagles -1.51 2.68 -4.20
Knights -2.17 -0.28 -1.90
Raiders -3.12 -7.09 4.00
Eels -4.80 -7.19 2.40
Wests Tigers -6.65 -13.13 6.50
Titans -6.74 -8.20 1.50
Sharks -7.34 -10.76 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 29 20 – 26 9.90 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles May 30 18 – 14 12.20 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Broncos May 30 12 – 24 -4.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs May 30 16 – 22 -9.00 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Sharks May 31 42 – 6 10.70 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights May 31 24 – 20 7.30 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 01 24 – 2 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 Broncos 9.60
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 05 Wests Tigers 3.10
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 06 Knights 3.90
4 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 06 Storm -1.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 06 Rabbitohs 8.20
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jun 07 Roosters -14.60
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 Dragons -2.20
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 08 Cowboys -8.30

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.06 10.42 -1.40
Waratahs 6.16 10.00 -3.80
Hurricanes 6.07 2.89 3.20
Highlanders 5.12 -2.54 7.70
Brumbies 4.12 2.20 1.90
Chiefs 3.60 2.23 1.40
Stormers 3.59 1.68 1.90
Bulls 2.26 2.88 -0.60
Lions -1.12 -3.39 2.30
Blues -1.68 1.44 -3.10
Sharks -1.94 3.91 -5.90
Rebels -4.58 -9.53 4.90
Reds -7.37 -4.98 -2.40
Force -7.38 -4.67 -2.70
Cheetahs -8.92 -5.55 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 35 – 18 5.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 29 22 – 16 6.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Rebels May 29 25 – 21 7.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 30 36 – 9 2.80 TRUE
5 Force vs. Reds May 30 10 – 32 7.20 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 30 42 – 12 14.70 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Waratahs May 30 27 – 22 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 05 Hurricanes 4.90
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 05 Brumbies -7.50
3 Rebels vs. Bulls Jun 06 Bulls -2.30
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Jun 06 Crusaders -6.70
5 Reds vs. Chiefs Jun 06 Chiefs -6.50
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs Jun 06 Waratahs -10.60
7 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 06 Stormers 8.70

 

May 28, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.18 9.09 0.10
Cowboys 7.12 9.52 -2.40
Storm 5.13 4.36 0.80
Rabbitohs 5.07 13.06 -8.00
Broncos 4.56 4.03 0.50
Dragons 2.04 -1.74 3.80
Panthers 1.01 3.69 -2.70
Warriors 0.85 3.07 -2.20
Bulldogs -1.41 0.21 -1.60
Sea Eagles -2.10 2.68 -4.80
Knights -2.42 -0.28 -2.10
Raiders -2.55 -7.09 4.50
Sharks -5.61 -10.76 5.10
Eels -5.90 -7.19 1.30
Wests Tigers -6.65 -13.13 6.50
Titans -6.97 -8.20 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 22 14 – 12 15.90 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 23 0 – 8 -11.30 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 24 34 – 41 3.30 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Broncos May 25 18 – 31 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 29 Panthers 9.90
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles May 30 Cowboys 12.20
3 Raiders vs. Broncos May 30 Broncos -4.10
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs May 30 Rabbitohs -9.00
5 Dragons vs. Sharks May 31 Dragons 10.70
6 Warriors vs. Knights May 31 Warriors 7.30
7 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 01 Roosters 7.00

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.35 10.42 -2.10
Hurricanes 6.78 2.89 3.90
Waratahs 6.74 10.00 -3.30
Chiefs 4.95 2.23 2.70
Brumbies 4.16 2.20 2.00
Highlanders 3.77 -2.54 6.30
Stormers 2.68 1.68 1.00
Bulls 2.22 2.88 -0.70
Sharks -1.59 3.91 -5.50
Blues -1.68 1.44 -3.10
Lions -1.69 -3.39 1.70
Rebels -4.92 -9.53 4.60
Force -5.80 -4.67 -1.10
Cheetahs -8.00 -5.55 -2.50
Reds -8.95 -4.98 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls May 22 34 – 20 6.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sharks May 22 14 – 21 -2.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 23 5 – 29 -2.00 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 23 32 – 22 1.80 TRUE
5 Force vs. Highlanders May 23 3 – 23 -3.10 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Lions May 23 17 – 40 0.30 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Rebels May 23 31 – 15 11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 Crusaders 5.60
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 29 Brumbies 6.40
3 Sharks vs. Rebels May 29 Sharks 7.80
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 30 Highlanders 2.80
5 Force vs. Reds May 30 Force 7.20
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 30 Stormers 14.70
7 Lions vs. Waratahs May 30 Waratahs -3.90

 

May 20, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.18 9.09 0.10
Cowboys 7.37 9.52 -2.20
Rabbitohs 6.05 13.06 -7.00
Storm 5.13 4.36 0.80
Broncos 3.81 4.03 -0.20
Dragons 2.04 -1.74 3.80
Panthers 1.01 3.69 -2.70
Warriors 0.85 3.07 -2.20
Knights -1.67 -0.28 -1.40
Raiders -1.82 -7.09 5.30
Sea Eagles -2.10 2.68 -4.80
Bulldogs -2.14 0.21 -2.30
Sharks -5.61 -10.76 5.10
Eels -6.88 -7.19 0.30
Wests Tigers -6.90 -13.13 6.20
Titans -6.97 -8.20 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 15 10 – 24 -7.30 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 15 31 – 20 5.80 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors May 16 13 – 17 -3.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 16 16 – 12 1.70 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Sharks May 16 22 – 23 2.10 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Raiders May 17 32 – 18 5.70 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers May 17 22 – 12 7.90 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers May 18 10 – 11 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 22 Rabbitohs 15.90
2 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 23 Cowboys -11.30
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 24 Raiders 3.30
4 Knights vs. Broncos May 25 Broncos -2.50

 

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