June 10, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.03 10.42 -0.40
Hurricanes 7.74 2.89 4.80
Waratahs 7.03 10.00 -3.00
Brumbies 4.50 2.20 2.30
Chiefs 4.48 2.23 2.30
Highlanders 3.45 -2.54 6.00
Stormers 3.03 1.68 1.30
Bulls 1.96 2.88 -0.90
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -1.94 3.91 -5.90
Blues -2.65 1.44 -4.10
Rebels -4.28 -9.53 5.20
Force -7.77 -4.67 -3.10
Reds -8.25 -4.98 -3.30
Cheetahs -9.79 -5.55 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 05 56 – 20 4.90 TRUE
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 05 20 – 33 -7.50 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Bulls Jun 06 21 – 20 -2.30 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Jun 06 11 – 34 -6.70 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Chiefs Jun 06 3 – 24 -6.50 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs Jun 06 33 – 58 -10.60 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 06 19 – 19 8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 12 Highlanders -2.10
2 Rebels vs. Force Jun 12 Rebels 7.50
3 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Jun 13 Crusaders -1.00
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 Chiefs 0.70
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Jun 13 Waratahs 19.30
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 13 Bulls 15.70
7 Sharks vs. Stormers Jun 13 Stormers -1.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »