Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 12, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.78 12.35 -2.60
Rabbitohs 7.28 5.82 1.50
Sea Eagles 5.23 9.10 -3.90
Broncos 5.07 -4.69 9.80
Cowboys 4.44 6.01 -1.60
Bulldogs 3.42 2.46 1.00
Panthers 3.36 -2.48 5.80
Warriors 1.83 -0.72 2.50
Storm -0.19 7.64 -7.80
Knights -3.02 5.23 -8.20
Wests Tigers -4.16 -11.26 7.10
Titans -4.20 1.45 -5.70
Eels -6.36 -18.45 12.10
Raiders -7.27 -8.99 1.70
Dragons -7.94 -7.57 -0.40
Sharks -9.04 2.32 -11.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 06 32 – 10 2.90 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 06 18 – 16 -8.30 FALSE
3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 07 14 – 36 1.00 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 07 30 – 0 0.60 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 07 34 – 18 8.50 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 20 – 23 7.70 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Roosters Jun 08 12 – 32 -2.30 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 09 4 – 26 -4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jun 13 Rabbitohs 15.90
2 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 14 Panthers 15.80
3 Roosters vs. Knights Jun 14 Roosters 17.30
4 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 15 Bulldogs 14.30
5 Titans vs. Storm Jun 16 Titans 0.50

 

June 4, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.18 12.35 -4.20
Rabbitohs 6.54 5.82 0.70
Cowboys 5.41 6.01 -0.60
Bulldogs 5.12 2.46 2.70
Sea Eagles 3.52 9.10 -5.60
Broncos 3.51 -4.69 8.20
Warriors 2.57 -0.72 3.30
Storm 1.40 7.64 -6.20
Panthers 1.34 -2.48 3.80
Knights -2.01 5.23 -7.20
Titans -2.18 1.45 -3.60
Wests Tigers -5.17 -11.26 6.10
Raiders -5.71 -8.99 3.30
Sharks -6.52 2.32 -8.80
Eels -7.34 -18.45 11.10
Dragons -10.46 -7.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 30 38 – 12 10.30 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Raiders May 31 26 – 12 19.50 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 31 22 – 0 5.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Knights Jun 01 38 – 18 6.60 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 01 36 – 10 -0.00 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jun 02 29 – 10 22.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 06 Sea Eagles 2.90
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 06 Cowboys -8.30
3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 07 Titans 1.00
4 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 07 Dragons 0.60
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 07 Rabbitohs 8.50
6 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Knights 7.70
7 Storm vs. Roosters Jun 08 Roosters -2.30
8 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 09 Broncos -4.70

 

May 28, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.74 12.35 -3.60
Rabbitohs 6.88 5.82 1.10
Sea Eagles 5.77 9.10 -3.30
Bulldogs 5.12 2.46 2.70
Cowboys 3.92 6.01 -2.10
Storm 2.90 7.64 -4.70
Warriors 1.33 -0.72 2.00
Broncos 1.26 -4.69 5.90
Panthers -0.09 -2.48 2.40
Knights -0.77 5.23 -6.00
Titans -2.18 1.45 -3.60
Wests Tigers -5.17 -11.26 6.10
Eels -5.91 -18.45 12.50
Raiders -6.26 -8.99 2.70
Sharks -6.52 2.32 -8.80
Dragons -10.80 -7.57 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 23 12 – 32 5.30 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Warriors May 24 16 – 24 3.10 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos May 24 14 – 16 -1.90 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 42 – 12 -12.70 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 26 0 – 18 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 30 Panthers 10.30
2 Roosters vs. Raiders May 31 Roosters 19.50
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 31 Cowboys 5.50
4 Warriors vs. Knights Jun 01 Warriors 6.60
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 01 Sea Eagles -0.00
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jun 02 Rabbitohs 22.20

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.13 8.80 -0.70
Sharks 6.25 4.57 1.70
Waratahs 4.91 1.67 3.20
Bulls 3.78 4.87 -1.10
Hurricanes 3.65 -1.44 5.10
Brumbies 2.67 4.12 -1.40
Chiefs 2.50 4.38 -1.90
Stormers 1.38 4.38 -3.00
Blues -0.70 -1.92 1.20
Highlanders -1.28 -4.48 3.20
Force -2.30 -5.37 3.10
Cheetahs -4.52 0.12 -4.60
Reds -4.54 0.58 -5.10
Rebels -5.76 -6.36 0.60
Lions -7.17 -6.93 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Sharks May 23 23 – 29 -2.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 23 19 – 41 -6.30 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 24 30 – 32 -7.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 24 45 – 8 -0.50 FALSE
5 Force vs. Lions May 24 29 – 19 8.70 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 24 33 – 0 5.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 24 44 – 23 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Force May 30 Crusaders 14.40
2 Reds vs. Highlanders May 30 Reds 0.70
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs May 31 Chiefs 1.60
4 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 31 Hurricanes -1.80
5 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 31 Brumbies 10.90
6 Lions vs. Bulls May 31 Bulls -8.50
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 31 Sharks 7.40

 

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May 21, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.51 8.80 -0.30
Sharks 6.00 4.57 1.40
Chiefs 4.59 4.38 0.20
Waratahs 3.95 1.67 2.30
Brumbies 3.75 4.12 -0.40
Bulls 2.70 4.87 -2.20
Hurricanes 1.56 -1.44 3.00
Stormers -0.21 4.38 -4.60
Blues -0.45 -1.92 1.50
Highlanders -1.66 -4.48 2.80
Force -2.40 -5.37 3.00
Cheetahs -2.93 0.12 -3.10
Reds -4.54 0.58 -5.10
Rebels -4.80 -6.36 1.60
Lions -7.07 -6.93 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 16 16 – 18 6.90 FALSE
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 17 25 – 30 8.10 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Rebels May 17 27 – 30 3.60 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Force May 17 24 – 8 4.80 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies May 17 27 – 21 -3.90 FALSE
6 Waratahs vs. Lions May 18 41 – 13 13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Sharks May 23 Sharks -2.50
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 23 Waratahs -6.30
3 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 24 Crusaders -7.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 24 Chiefs -0.50
5 Force vs. Lions May 24 Force 8.70
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 24 Stormers 5.20
7 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 24 Bulls 2.90

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 7.44 6.01 1.40
Bulldogs 7.32 2.46 4.90
Roosters 6.54 12.35 -5.80
Rabbitohs 5.83 5.82 0.00
Sea Eagles 5.77 9.10 -3.30
Storm 2.90 7.64 -4.70
Broncos 1.24 -4.69 5.90
Warriors 0.28 -0.72 1.00
Panthers -0.09 -2.48 2.40
Knights -0.77 5.23 -6.00
Titans -1.13 1.45 -2.60
Wests Tigers -5.15 -11.26 6.10
Sharks -5.47 2.32 -7.80
Eels -5.91 -18.45 12.50
Raiders -9.79 -8.99 -0.80
Dragons -10.80 -7.57 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 16 14 – 27 11.70 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Titans May 16 22 – 8 5.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Dragons May 17 36 – 0 4.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 17 20 – 22 5.70 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Roosters May 17 42 – 10 -0.00 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Panthers May 18 20 – 26 -4.90 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 18 16 – 12 13.30 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Knights May 19 15 – 14 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 23 Bulldogs 5.30
2 Titans vs. Warriors May 24 Titans 3.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos May 24 Broncos -1.90
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 Cowboys -12.70
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 26 Rabbitohs -6.80

 

May 13, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.26 12.35 -3.10
Bulldogs 8.21 2.46 5.70
Rabbitohs 7.98 5.82 2.20
Sea Eagles 6.93 9.10 -2.20
Cowboys 4.73 6.01 -1.30
Storm 0.74 7.64 -6.90
Broncos 0.39 -4.69 5.10
Panthers -0.21 -2.48 2.30
Titans -0.28 1.45 -1.70
Warriors -0.61 -0.72 0.10
Knights -1.93 5.23 -7.20
Sharks -4.72 2.32 -7.00
Wests Tigers -5.91 -11.26 5.40
Dragons -8.08 -7.57 -0.50
Eels -8.63 -18.45 9.80
Raiders -9.66 -8.99 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 09 30 – 6 18.60 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 09 27 – 14 7.80 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Raiders May 10 54 – 12 7.80 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs May 10 18 – 40 0.10 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 10 22 – 19 -2.90 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Panthers May 11 10 – 32 7.90 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 11 6 – 38 -7.50 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Sharks May 12 42 – 24 -3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 16 Rabbitohs 11.70
2 Broncos vs. Titans May 16 Broncos 5.20
3 Eels vs. Dragons May 17 Eels 4.00
4 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 17 Sharks 5.70
5 Cowboys vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -0.00
6 Raiders vs. Panthers May 18 Panthers -4.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 18 Bulldogs 13.30
8 Sea Eagles vs. Knights May 19 Sea Eagles 13.40

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.32 8.80 0.50
Sharks 5.19 4.57 0.60
Chiefs 4.59 4.38 0.20
Brumbies 4.38 4.12 0.30
Waratahs 3.05 1.67 1.40
Bulls 2.70 4.87 -2.20
Hurricanes 2.13 -1.44 3.60
Blues -0.45 -1.92 1.50
Stormers -0.92 4.38 -5.30
Force -1.70 -5.37 3.70
Highlanders -2.23 -4.48 2.30
Cheetahs -3.56 0.12 -3.70
Reds -4.10 0.58 -4.70
Rebels -5.24 -6.36 1.10
Lions -6.17 -6.93 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Blues May 09 32 – 20 6.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes May 09 15 – 25 -2.40 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Lions May 10 23 – 22 9.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks May 10 16 – 9 2.60 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Force May 10 16 – 23 3.50 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Stormers May 10 28 – 12 4.70 TRUE
7 Reds vs. Crusaders May 11 29 – 57 -6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 16 Hurricanes 6.90
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 17 Crusaders 8.10
3 Reds vs. Rebels May 17 Reds 3.60
4 Stormers vs. Force May 17 Stormers 4.80
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies May 17 Brumbies -3.90
6 Waratahs vs. Lions May 18 Waratahs 13.20

 

May 7, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.08 8.80 -0.70
Sharks 5.49 4.57 0.90
Chiefs 4.24 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 4.08 4.12 -0.00
Waratahs 3.05 1.67 1.40
Bulls 1.99 4.87 -2.90
Hurricanes 1.63 -1.44 3.10
Blues -0.10 -1.92 1.80
Stormers -0.21 4.38 -4.60
Highlanders -1.71 -4.48 2.80
Force -2.36 -5.37 3.00
Reds -2.86 0.58 -3.40
Cheetahs -2.90 0.12 -3.00
Rebels -4.74 -6.36 1.60
Lions -6.69 -6.93 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds May 02 44 – 14 3.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sharks May 02 16 – 22 -6.30 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Brumbies May 03 40 – 20 6.30 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Lions May 03 38 – 8 12.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes May 03 39 – 30 4.80 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Highlanders May 03 29 – 28 6.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs May 03 26 – 21 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues May 09 Chiefs 6.80
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes May 09 Hurricanes -2.40
3 Highlanders vs. Lions May 10 Highlanders 9.00
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks May 10 Brumbies 2.60
5 Cheetahs vs. Force May 10 Cheetahs 3.50
6 Bulls vs. Stormers May 10 Bulls 4.70
7 Reds vs. Crusaders May 11 Crusaders -6.90

 

April 30, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.71 12.35 -3.60
Sea Eagles 7.52 9.10 -1.60
Bulldogs 6.08 2.46 3.60
Rabbitohs 6.03 5.82 0.20
Cowboys 4.19 6.01 -1.80
Titans 1.67 1.45 0.20
Broncos 0.92 -4.69 5.60
Knights 0.63 5.23 -4.60
Storm 0.15 7.64 -7.50
Panthers -2.77 -2.48 -0.30
Sharks -2.85 2.32 -5.20
Warriors -3.50 -0.72 -2.80
Wests Tigers -5.35 -11.26 5.90
Dragons -5.95 -7.57 1.60
Raiders -6.78 -8.99 2.20
Eels -10.50 -18.45 8.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 14 – 34 -7.90 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 10 – 16 11.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 26 – 28 -0.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 26 24 – 20 4.60 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Eels Apr 26 42 – 14 17.10 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 26 16 – 12 11.40 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 27 54 – 18 15.10 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 6 – 22 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 09 Roosters 18.60
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 09 Cowboys 7.80
3 Warriors vs. Raiders May 10 Warriors 7.80
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs May 10 Titans 0.10
5 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 10 Sea Eagles -2.90
6 Knights vs. Panthers May 11 Knights 7.90
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 11 Bulldogs -7.50
8 Eels vs. Sharks May 12 Sharks -3.20

 

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