May 28, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.74 12.35 -3.60
Rabbitohs 6.88 5.82 1.10
Sea Eagles 5.77 9.10 -3.30
Bulldogs 5.12 2.46 2.70
Cowboys 3.92 6.01 -2.10
Storm 2.90 7.64 -4.70
Warriors 1.33 -0.72 2.00
Broncos 1.26 -4.69 5.90
Panthers -0.09 -2.48 2.40
Knights -0.77 5.23 -6.00
Titans -2.18 1.45 -3.60
Wests Tigers -5.17 -11.26 6.10
Eels -5.91 -18.45 12.50
Raiders -6.26 -8.99 2.70
Sharks -6.52 2.32 -8.80
Dragons -10.80 -7.57 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 23 12 – 32 5.30 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Warriors May 24 16 – 24 3.10 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos May 24 14 – 16 -1.90 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 42 – 12 -12.70 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 26 0 – 18 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 30 Panthers 10.30
2 Roosters vs. Raiders May 31 Roosters 19.50
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 31 Cowboys 5.50
4 Warriors vs. Knights Jun 01 Warriors 6.60
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 01 Sea Eagles -0.00
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jun 02 Rabbitohs 22.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »