May 28, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.13 8.80 -0.70
Sharks 6.25 4.57 1.70
Waratahs 4.91 1.67 3.20
Bulls 3.78 4.87 -1.10
Hurricanes 3.65 -1.44 5.10
Brumbies 2.67 4.12 -1.40
Chiefs 2.50 4.38 -1.90
Stormers 1.38 4.38 -3.00
Blues -0.70 -1.92 1.20
Highlanders -1.28 -4.48 3.20
Force -2.30 -5.37 3.10
Cheetahs -4.52 0.12 -4.60
Reds -4.54 0.58 -5.10
Rebels -5.76 -6.36 0.60
Lions -7.17 -6.93 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Sharks May 23 23 – 29 -2.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 23 19 – 41 -6.30 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 24 30 – 32 -7.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 24 45 – 8 -0.50 FALSE
5 Force vs. Lions May 24 29 – 19 8.70 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 24 33 – 0 5.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 24 44 – 23 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Force May 30 Crusaders 14.40
2 Reds vs. Highlanders May 30 Reds 0.70
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs May 31 Chiefs 1.60
4 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 31 Hurricanes -1.80
5 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 31 Brumbies 10.90
6 Lions vs. Bulls May 31 Bulls -8.50
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 31 Sharks 7.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Leonardo de Freitas

    Morning Statschat.
    These fixtures are incorrect for this week’s Super 15.

    9 years ago

    • avatar
      Thomas Lumley

      That’s because this is last year’s post, not this week’s.

      9 years ago