Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 25, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 21.19 23.14 -2.00
Wellington 11.88 6.93 4.90
Auckland 8.41 9.02 -0.60
Counties Manukau 4.44 4.36 0.10
Waikato 2.10 5.25 -3.20
Tasman -1.11 -6.29 5.20
Taranaki -2.13 3.92 -6.10
Otago -3.54 -4.44 0.90
Hawke’s Bay -5.05 -6.72 1.70
Bay of Plenty -5.56 -1.96 -3.60
North Harbour -6.61 -7.43 0.80
Northland -8.74 -8.26 -0.50
Southland -9.06 -11.86 2.80
Manawatu -9.50 -8.97 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 25 – 33 12.30 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 19 41 – 10 19.90 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 20 52 – 41 10.40 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 21 37 – 25 5.90 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 21 25 – 19 -6.90 FALSE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 21 – 3 6.00 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 22 18 – 9 8.30 TRUE
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 22 34 – 31 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 25 Canterbury 35.20
2 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 26 Tasman -3.10
3 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -5.30
4 Otago vs. Southland Sep 28 Otago 10.00
5 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Sep 28 Taranaki -2.90
6 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 28 Canterbury -8.30
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 29 Hawke’s Bay 6.10
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 Counties Manukau -5.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 3.61 3.24 0.40
Western Province 3.15 4.47 -1.30
Lions 2.08 -1.22 3.30
Cheetahs -2.84 -2.74 -0.10
Blue Bulls -3.45 0.59 -4.00
Griquas -4.70 -6.48 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 19 – 13 17.40 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 21 50 – 26 11.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 21 35 – 26 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Sep 27 Cheetahs 1.50
2 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 27 Lions 6.00
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 28 Griquas 6.20

 

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.32 -5.68 17.00
Storm 8.36 9.73 -1.40
Sea Eagles 7.72 4.78 2.90
Knights 7.31 0.44 6.90
Rabbitohs 7.05 5.23 1.80
Cowboys 6.60 7.05 -0.40
Bulldogs 2.16 7.33 -5.20
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.87 -1.78 3.70
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 20 24 – 18 5.82 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Knights Sep 21 16 – 18 7.44 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 27 Sea Eagles -0.70
2 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 28 Roosters 4.00

 

September 18, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 22.22 23.14 -0.90
Wellington 10.85 6.93 3.90
Auckland 7.52 9.02 -1.50
Counties Manukau 3.95 4.36 -0.40
Waikato 2.60 5.25 -2.70
Tasman -1.16 -6.29 5.10
Bay of Plenty -2.98 -1.96 -1.00
Taranaki -3.09 3.92 -7.00
Otago -3.59 -4.44 0.80
Hawke’s Bay -5.00 -6.72 1.70
North Harbour -6.52 -7.43 0.90
Northland -7.85 -8.26 0.40
Manawatu -9.45 -8.97 -0.50
Southland -10.77 -11.86 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 23 – 10 7.80 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 12 33 – 16 18.60 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 13 27 – 17 5.00 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 13 23 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 14 42 – 24 -3.90 FALSE
6 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 14 32 – 22 34.20 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 15 44 – 7 6.70 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 15 31 – 26 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 Bay of Plenty 12.30
2 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 19 Auckland 19.90
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 20 Otago 10.40
4 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 21 Counties Manukau 5.90
5 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 21 Canterbury -6.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Taranaki 4.40
7 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 22 Tasman 8.30
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 22 Southland 0.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.17 4.47 -0.30
Lions 2.52 -1.22 3.70
Sharks 2.51 3.24 -0.70
Cheetahs -1.73 -2.74 1.00
Blue Bulls -3.89 0.59 -4.50
Griquas -5.73 -6.48 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 13 26 – 23 3.30 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 14 24 – 25 -0.70 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 14 18 – 29 1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 Western Province 17.40
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 21 Sharks 11.70
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 21 Lions 13.90

 

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NRL Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.32 -5.68 17.00
Storm 9.31 9.73 -0.40
Sea Eagles 7.70 4.78 2.90
Rabbitohs 7.05 5.23 1.80
Cowboys 6.60 7.05 -0.40
Knights 6.36 0.44 5.90
Bulldogs 2.16 7.33 -5.20
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.89 -1.78 3.70
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 13 20 – 10 0.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 14 20 – 18 -0.77 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Sep 14 4 – 0 3.52 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Sep 15 6 – 22 4.36 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 20 Sea Eagles 5.80
2 Storm vs. Knights Sep 21 Storm 7.40

 

September 10, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 5

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I have now been able to assemble the data for predicting the ITM Cup. The success figures stated below are what would have been achieved had I started predicting in Round 1. The parameters for this season’s predictions were chosen without considering any results from this year and the method is purely algorithmic once the parameters have been chosen.

Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 24.16 23.14 1.00
Wellington 10.98 6.93 4.00
Auckland 9.27 9.02 0.20
Counties Manukau 1.52 4.36 -2.80
Waikato 0.84 5.25 -4.40
Tasman -0.03 -6.29 6.30
Taranaki -1.08 3.92 -5.00
Bay of Plenty -3.10 -1.96 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay -4.36 -6.72 2.40
Otago -5.53 -4.44 -1.10
North Harbour -7.65 -7.43 -0.20
Northland -8.08 -8.26 0.20
Manawatu -9.84 -8.97 -0.90
Southland -10.38 -11.86 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 04 22 – 20 11.00 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Sep 05 18 – 48 -21.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Waikato Sep 06 20 – 16 -8.80 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Otago Sep 06 49 – 16 5.60 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 07 15 – 51 -0.10 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 07 24 – 27 -1.10 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 08 15 – 12 2.20 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 08 10 – 30 -13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 Taranaki 7.80
2 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 12 Wellington 18.60
3 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 13 Manawatu 5.00
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 13 Tasman -3.10
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 14 Auckland -3.90
6 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 14 Canterbury 34.20
7 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 15 Counties Manukau 7.10
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay 8.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 3.03 4.47 -1.40
Lions 2.50 -1.22 3.70
Sharks 2.48 3.24 -0.80
Cheetahs -1.71 -2.74 1.00
Blue Bulls -2.75 0.59 -3.30
Griquas -5.70 -6.48 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 07 32 – 38 0.50 FALSE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 26 – 10 4.40 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 07 25 – 19 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 13 Cheetahs 3.30
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 14 Sharks -0.70
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 14 Blue Bulls 1.70

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.27 -5.68 17.00
Storm 10.28 9.73 0.60
Sea Eagles 7.75 4.78 3.00
Cowboys 6.88 7.05 -0.20
Rabbitohs 6.08 5.23 0.80
Knights 4.33 0.44 3.90
Bulldogs 4.19 7.33 -3.10
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.61 -1.78 3.40
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.42%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Sep 05 16 – 11 -7.30 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 12 – 24 2.14 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Warriors Sep 07 19 – 10 -5.73 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Titans Sep 07 23 – 22 15.58 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Sep 07 50 – 22 21.44 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 08 26 – 38 21.52 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Eels Sep 08 54 – 6 23.87 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 08 18 – 38 -4.18 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 13 Rabbitohs 0.30
2 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 14 Cowboys -0.80
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Sep 14 Roosters 3.50
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Sep 15 Bulldogs 4.40

 

September 4, 2013

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 3.25 4.47 -1.20
Sharks 2.26 3.24 -1.00
Lions 1.92 -1.22 3.10
Cheetahs -0.66 -2.74 2.10
Blue Bulls -3.79 0.59 -4.40
Griquas -5.12 -6.48 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 41.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Aug 30 31 – 31 7.50 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 31 40 – 20 10.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 31 34 – 18 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 07 Griquas 0.50
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 Blue Bulls 4.40
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 07 Western Province 8.50

 

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