Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 4, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 26, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.74 9.73 2.00
Sea Eagles 11.10 4.78 6.30
Roosters 9.86 -5.68 15.50
Rabbitohs 7.50 5.23 2.30
Cowboys 6.22 7.05 -0.80
Bulldogs 5.42 7.33 -1.90
Knights 1.92 0.44 1.50
Titans 0.65 -1.85 2.50
Warriors 0.58 -10.01 10.60
Sharks 0.03 -1.78 1.80
Panthers -5.92 -6.58 0.70
Broncos -6.38 -1.55 -4.80
Raiders -8.65 2.03 -10.70
Dragons -9.65 -0.33 -9.30
Wests Tigers -10.71 -3.71 -7.00
Eels -17.46 -8.82 -8.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.87%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 30 18 – 26 -2.75 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 18 – 32 -13.64 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 50 – 16 8.66 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 31 34 – 14 14.80 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 31 28 – 8 -0.17 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 01 18 – 31 1.13 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 01 22 – 30 19.13 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 26 – 22 -5.14 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Sep 05 Bulldogs -7.30
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 Rabbitohs 2.10
3 Dragons vs. Warriors Sep 07 Warriors -5.70
4 Storm vs. Titans Sep 07 Storm 15.60
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Sep 07 Cowboys 21.40
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 08 Sea Eagles 21.50
7 Knights vs. Eels Sep 08 Knights 23.90
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 08 Sharks -4.20

 

August 28, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 25, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.75 9.73 4.00
Roosters 12.57 -5.68 18.30
Sea Eagles 9.09 4.78 4.30
Rabbitohs 7.46 5.23 2.20
Bulldogs 4.90 7.33 -2.40
Cowboys 4.81 7.05 -2.20
Sharks 1.44 -1.78 3.20
Knights 1.39 0.44 1.00
Warriors -1.95 -10.01 8.10
Titans -2.06 -1.85 -0.20
Panthers -5.40 -6.58 1.20
Broncos -5.86 -1.55 -4.30
Raiders -6.11 2.03 -8.10
Dragons -8.74 -0.33 -8.40
Wests Tigers -10.68 -3.71 -7.00
Eels -18.37 -8.82 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.36%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 28 – 20 6.82 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Broncos Aug 23 28 – 12 2.20 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Aug 24 18 – 34 12.05 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 24 22 – 24 5.99 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 24 26 – 6 4.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 25 22 – 36 -9.87 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Eels Aug 25 64 – 4 30.78 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 32 – 22 -10.79 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 30 Knights -2.70
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 Rabbitohs -13.60
3 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 Warriors 8.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 31 Bulldogs 14.80
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 31 Storm -0.20
6 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 01 Sharks 1.10
7 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 01 Roosters 19.10
8 Eels vs. Dragons Sep 02 Dragons -5.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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This is proving to be an extremely unpredictable competition. The Lions absolutely thrashing the Bulls last weekend has resulted in a rankings jump for the Lions and a drop for the Bulls. Certainly the competition is harder to predict than the Australian NRL which in turn is harder to predict than the Super 15.

Team Ratings for Round 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 2.59 -1.22 3.80
Western Province 2.57 4.47 -1.90
Sharks 1.99 3.24 -1.20
Cheetahs -1.54 -2.74 1.20
Blue Bulls -3.52 0.59 -4.10
Griquas -4.23 -6.48 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Aug 23 15 – 18 5.50 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 24 19 – 20 1.10 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Aug 24 23 – 62 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Aug 30 Lions 7.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 31 Cheetahs 10.20
3 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 31 Sharks 13.00

 

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August 21, 2013

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Oh dear, mea culpa. I was alerted by Pierre du Plessis (pduplessis1@gmail.com) that my predictions were a bit bizarre and on checking I found I had entered an incorrect parameter value. Here are the correct predictions for this week. Note that the success probability below is what would have been obtained if I had entered the correct parameter value previously.
 

Team Ratings for Round 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 2.39 4.47 -2.10
Sharks 1.22 3.24 -2.00
Blue Bulls 0.91 0.59 0.30
Cheetahs -0.78 -2.74 2.00
Lions -1.84 -1.22 -0.60
Griquas -4.05 -6.48 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 16 33 – 25 11.10 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 16 15 – 9 13.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 17 15 – 14 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Aug 23 Cheetahs 5.50
2 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 24 Griquas 1.10
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Aug 24 Blue Bulls 10.20

 

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NRL Predictions, Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 14.65 -5.68 20.30
Storm 10.83 9.73 1.10
Sea Eagles 8.67 4.78 3.90
Rabbitohs 7.34 5.23 2.10
Bulldogs 5.02 7.33 -2.30
Cowboys 3.30 7.05 -3.70
Knights 2.90 0.44 2.50
Sharks -0.64 -1.78 1.10
Titans -1.26 -1.85 0.60
Warriors -2.75 -10.01 7.30
Broncos -4.48 -1.55 -2.90
Raiders -5.70 2.03 -7.70
Dragons -5.93 -0.33 -5.60
Panthers -6.78 -6.58 -0.20
Wests Tigers -13.48 -3.71 -9.80
Eels -15.45 -8.82 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.31%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 22 – 10 0.96 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 16 22 – 12 16.84 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 16 – 28 -4.78 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 17 22 – 10 8.33 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 17 18 – 22 0.01 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 18 24 – 28 11.66 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Storm Aug 18 10 – 23 -1.04 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 19 14 – 56 -19.04 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 Rabbitohs 6.80
2 Panthers vs. Broncos Aug 23 Panthers 2.20
3 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Aug 24 Dragons 12.10
4 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 24 Titans 6.00
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 24 Cowboys 4.90
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 25 Sea Eagles -9.90
7 Storm vs. Eels Aug 25 Storm 30.80
8 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 Roosters -10.80

 

August 16, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 23

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Unfortunately these are a little late this week. I simply forgot to do them until just now.

Team Ratings for Round 23

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 23, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.36 -5.68 18.00
Sea Eagles 9.78 4.78 5.00
Storm 9.64 9.73 -0.10
Rabbitohs 6.24 5.23 1.00
Bulldogs 4.30 7.33 -3.00
Knights 4.10 0.44 3.70
Cowboys 2.93 7.05 -4.10
Titans -0.89 -1.85 1.00
Sharks -1.04 -1.78 0.70
Warriors -1.18 -10.01 8.80
Broncos -3.79 -1.55 -2.20
Raiders -4.98 2.03 -7.00
Dragons -5.53 -0.33 -5.20
Panthers -8.35 -6.58 -1.80
Wests Tigers -11.19 -3.71 -7.50
Eels -16.13 -8.82 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.62%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 09 26 – 8 5.37 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Aug 09 26 – 22 -1.56 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Raiders Aug 10 28 – 22 25.80 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 10 14 – 18 0.21 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 11 27 – 12 15.57 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 11 26 – 24 7.30 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 11 4 – 36 -0.47 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 12 16 – 26 14.61 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 Rabbitohs 1.00
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 16 Broncos 16.80
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 Bulldogs -4.80
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 17 Cowboys 8.30
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 17 Dragons 0.00
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 18 Warriors 11.70
7 Knights vs. Storm Aug 18 Storm -1.00
8 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 19 Roosters -19.00

 

August 14, 2013

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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The first week of the Currie Cup proved difficult to predict. I did note that last year was very difficult to predict as well.

Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blue Bulls 11.05 0.87 10.20
Griquas 10.88 -6.38 17.30
Cheetahs 5.97 -3.10 9.10
Western Province -5.50 4.68 -10.20
Lions -10.59 -1.52 -9.10
Sharks -13.96 3.30 -17.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 0 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 0%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 09 30 – 32 17.20 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Aug 10 29 – 30 9.10 FALSE
3 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 10 24 – 24 11.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 16 Sharks 4.10
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 16 Blue Bulls 7.70
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 17 Cheetahs -4.00

 

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August 8, 2013

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Some South African readers have asked for Currie Cup predictions and since the methodology should work, I have decided to provide them. Interestingly, the home ground advantage in past games appears to be large, and the predictability of games has varied enormously. Last year’s competition was very hard to predict it seems.

Team Ratings for Round 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.68 4.68 -0.00
Sharks 3.30 3.30 0.00
Blue Bulls 0.87 0.87 -0.00
Lions -1.52 -1.52 0.00
Cheetahs -3.10 -3.10 0.00
Griquas -6.38 -6.38 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 09 Sharks 17.20
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Aug 10 Lions 9.10
3 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 10 Western Province 11.30

 

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August 7, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 22, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 14.34 -5.68 20.00
Sea Eagles 9.83 4.78 5.10
Storm 8.37 9.73 -1.40
Rabbitohs 7.50 5.23 2.30
Bulldogs 6.76 7.33 -0.60
Knights 3.68 0.44 3.20
Cowboys -0.22 7.05 -7.30
Sharks -0.62 -1.78 1.20
Warriors -1.24 -10.01 8.80
Broncos -3.26 -1.55 -1.70
Titans -3.35 -1.85 -1.50
Panthers -5.19 -6.58 1.40
Dragons -6.06 -0.33 -5.70
Raiders -6.96 2.03 -9.00
Wests Tigers -10.63 -3.71 -6.90
Eels -16.69 -8.82 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.53%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 02 6 – 42 -9.79 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 02 18 – 18 14.30 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 03 14 – 18 5.85 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 6 – 40 -19.03 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 30 – 12 -8.52 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 04 4 – 68 2.46 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Aug 04 36 – 6 7.22 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 05 20 – 39 -5.65 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 09 Storm 5.40
2 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Aug 09 Wests Tigers -1.60
3 Roosters vs. Raiders Aug 10 Roosters 25.80
4 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 10 Sharks 0.20
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 11 Sea Eagles 15.60
6 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 11 Broncos 7.30
7 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 11 Cowboys -0.50
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 12 Bulldogs 14.60

 

July 31, 2013

NRL Predictions, Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.71 -5.68 17.40
Rabbitohs 10.15 5.23 4.90
Sea Eagles 8.34 4.78 3.60
Bulldogs 5.42 7.33 -1.90
Knights 5.11 0.44 4.70
Storm 1.73 9.73 -8.00
Warriors -0.25 -10.01 9.80
Raiders -0.31 2.03 -2.30
Sharks -1.60 -1.78 0.20
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Cowboys -2.87 7.05 -9.90
Broncos -4.69 -1.55 -3.10
Dragons -4.72 -0.33 -4.40
Titans -5.63 -1.85 -3.80
Wests Tigers -8.35 -3.71 -4.60
Eels -15.19 -8.82 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.11%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 26 16 – 18 8.40 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jul 26 40 – 12 24.40 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 27 18 – 22 1.11 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jul 27 4 – 32 -7.11 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 28 30 – 22 1.15 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Panthers Jul 28 38 – 10 -0.16 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 28 12 – 28 1.36 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 18 – 36 -10.74 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 02 Roosters -9.80
2 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 02 Knights 14.30
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 03 Warriors 5.80
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 Sea Eagles -19.00
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 Rabbitohs -8.50
6 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 04 Raiders 2.50
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Aug 04 Titans 7.20
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 05 Bulldogs -5.60

 

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