Posts written by David Scott (1530)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 15, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 25

By

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.27 12.99 0.30
Storm 8.66 11.21 -2.50
Broncos 6.22 -5.92 12.10
Cowboys 4.05 6.23 -2.20
Rabbitohs 3.11 9.35 -6.20
Sharks 3.06 4.50 -1.40
Warriors 2.26 -11.12 13.40
Knights 0.61 -9.53 10.10
Eels -0.16 6.78 -6.90
Roosters -1.15 7.64 -8.80
Sea Eagles -3.37 -5.26 1.90
Raiders -4.02 1.98 -6.00
Titans -6.31 -6.32 0.00
Dragons -6.49 -2.73 -3.80
Dolphins -7.47 -10.00 2.50
Wests Tigers -10.97 -13.52 2.50
Bulldogs -13.28 -8.29 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 10 12 – 24 -14.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 11 36 – 6 9.90 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 11 54 – 10 5.30 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 12 26 – 14 12.80 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 12 22 – 30 -7.00 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 12 30 – 14 8.20 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 13 48 – 2 12.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 13 42 – 6 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 17 Cowboys 4.00
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 18 Warriors 11.60
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 18 Eels 4.00
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Aug 19 Dolphins -0.50
5 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 19 Panthers -16.60
6 Dragons vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -12.10
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 20 Knights 0.50
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 Raiders 12.30

 

View comments (10)

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.34 9.44 1.90
Wellington 9.54 8.72 0.80
North Harbour 7.17 7.75 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay 4.33 5.12 -0.80
Tasman 4.00 2.20 1.80
Bay of Plenty 3.79 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.12 3.71 -0.60
Auckland 1.98 2.15 -0.20
Otago -1.45 0.62 -2.10
Taranaki -1.78 -2.98 1.20
Counties Manukau -6.53 -7.44 0.90
Northland -6.79 -3.92 -2.90
Southland -11.48 -12.27 0.80
Manawatu -13.76 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 24 – 25 -9.80 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 12 19 – 15 3.60 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 12 5 – 28 -5.50 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 12 24 – 12 3.00 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Aug 13 24 – 28 -0.40 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Northland Aug 13 15 – 15 -2.20 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 13 17 – 26 -9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Aug 16 Hawke’s Bay 4.20

 

View comments (2)
August 10, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

By

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -1.79 -2.98 1.20
Northland -6.55 -3.92 -2.60
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 13 – 28 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -9.80
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 12 Bay of Plenty 3.60
3 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 12 Wellington -5.50
4 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 12 Tasman 3.00
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Aug 13 Canterbury -0.40
6 Southland vs. Northland Aug 13 Northland -2.20
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 13 Taranaki -9.00

 

View comments (2)
August 7, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 24

By

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.50 12.99 0.50
Storm 6.81 11.21 -4.40
Broncos 4.17 -5.92 10.10
Cowboys 4.05 6.23 -2.20
Rabbitohs 3.20 9.35 -6.20
Warriors 2.15 -11.12 13.30
Eels 1.89 6.78 -4.90
Sharks 1.85 4.50 -2.70
Knights -0.68 -9.53 8.80
Roosters -1.72 7.64 -9.40
Raiders -2.18 1.98 -4.20
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.10 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.57 -2.73 -3.80
Dolphins -6.90 -10.00 3.10
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.52 2.70
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 26 – 16 4.00 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 18 – 28 0.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 26 – 6 8.10 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 14 – 30 5.40 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 28 – 30 -3.60 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 16 – 26 6.40 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 26 – 20 12.40 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 22 – 18 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 10 Panthers -14.10
2 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 11 Sharks 9.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 11 Broncos 5.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 12 Rabbitohs 12.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 12 Warriors -7.00
6 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 12 Roosters 8.20
7 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 13 Storm 12.00
8 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 13 Knights 14.30

 

View comments (4)

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -2.92 -2.98 0.10
Northland -5.42 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 27 – 15 4.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 37 – 29 7.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 23 – 21 0.40 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 6 – 22 -19.90 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 11 – 43 -10.40 TRUE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 30 – 32 5.40 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 21 – 29 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 0.50

 

August 1, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.70 12.99 -0.30
Storm 7.61 11.21 -3.60
Cowboys 5.33 6.23 -0.90
Rabbitohs 4.23 9.35 -5.10
Broncos 2.90 -5.92 8.80
Eels 2.38 6.78 -4.40
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Sharks 0.81 4.50 -3.70
Knights -0.50 -9.53 9.00
Raiders -1.54 1.98 -3.50
Roosters -2.18 7.64 -9.80
Sea Eagles -3.14 -5.26 2.10
Titans -4.40 -6.32 1.90
Dragons -7.06 -2.73 -4.30
Dolphins -7.08 -10.00 2.90
Wests Tigers -11.50 -13.52 2.00
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 32 – 10 6.10 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 32 -16.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 46 – 16 5.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 6 – 28 5.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 18 – 24 0.00 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 28 – 0 13.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 23 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 22 – 13 -8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 Roosters 4.00
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 Titans 0.20
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 Panthers 8.10
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 Cowboys 5.40
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 Knights -3.60
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 Rabbitohs 6.40
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 Eels 12.40
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 Raiders 13.00

 

View comments (1)

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.44 9.44 0.00
Wellington 8.72 8.72 0.00
North Harbour 7.75 7.75 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.12 0.00
Bay of Plenty 4.55 4.55 -0.00
Waikato 3.71 3.71 -0.00
Tasman 2.20 2.20 -0.00
Auckland 2.15 2.15 -0.00
Otago 0.62 0.62 -0.00
Taranaki -2.98 -2.98 -0.00
Northland -3.92 -3.92 0.00
Counties Manukau -7.44 -7.44 0.00
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.18 -14.18 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 Tasman 4.60
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 Taranaki 7.50
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 Hawke’s Bay 0.40
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 Wellington -19.90
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 Canterbury -10.40
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 Bay of Plenty 5.40
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 Waikato -13.00
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 2.10

 

July 25, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.74 12.99 -1.30
Cowboys 6.44 6.23 0.20
Storm 6.18 11.21 -5.00
Rabbitohs 4.47 9.35 -4.90
Eels 3.81 6.78 -3.00
Broncos 1.89 -5.92 7.80
Sharks 1.78 4.50 -2.70
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Raiders -0.00 1.98 -2.00
Roosters -1.18 7.64 -8.80
Knights -2.04 -9.53 7.50
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.50 -6.32 0.80
Dolphins -6.56 -10.00 3.40
Dragons -6.60 -2.73 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.74 -13.52 1.80
Bulldogs -12.51 -8.29 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 156 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 18 – 14 9.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Jul 21 21 – 20 8.60 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 21 20 – 36 8.40 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 22 18 – 36 1.00 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Storm Jul 22 26 – 18 -7.20 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 22 24 – 16 5.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 23 44 – 18 27.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 26 – 30 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 Broncos 6.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 Rabbitohs -16.20
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 Storm 5.40
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 Raiders 5.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 Dragons 0.00
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 Panthers 13.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 Dolphins -6.00
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 Cowboys -8.90

 

July 18, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.91 12.99 -1.10
Storm 7.15 11.21 -4.10
Cowboys 6.10 6.23 -0.10
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Eels 4.14 6.78 -2.60
Sharks 2.70 4.50 -1.80
Warriors 2.00 -11.12 13.10
Broncos 0.47 -5.92 6.40
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -2.34 7.64 -10.00
Knights -3.01 -9.53 6.50
Titans -4.34 -6.32 2.00
Sea Eagles -4.52 -5.26 0.70
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -6.56 -10.00 3.40
Wests Tigers -12.33 -13.52 1.20
Bulldogs -12.68 -8.29 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 34 – 18 11.30 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 24 – 44 -8.60 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 8 – 19 -6.70 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 16 – 30 -5.20 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 44 – 12 2.00 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 14 – 24 -16.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 25 – 24 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 Dragons 9.30
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Jul 21 Warriors 8.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 21 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 22 Titans 1.00
5 Knights vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -7.20
6 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 22 Cowboys 5.00
7 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 23 Panthers 27.60
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 Sharks 10.20

 

View comments (1)
July 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Eels 4.95 6.78 -1.80
Sharks 4.37 4.50 -0.10
Warriors 0.33 -11.12 11.50
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -5.15 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -7.05 -10.00 3.00
Wests Tigers -11.81 -13.52 1.70
Bulldogs -11.91 -8.29 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 12 – 36 -11.50 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 26 – 36 -1.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 10 – 46 15.80 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 32 – 36 24.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 21 – 23 6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 Knights 11.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 Broncos -8.60
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 Cowboys -6.70
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 Storm -5.20
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 Warriors 2.00
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 Panthers -16.40
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 Eels 13.10

 

View comments (3)
« Later posts
Earlier posts »