July 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.40 12.99 -0.60
Storm 6.52 11.21 -4.70
Rabbitohs 5.89 9.35 -3.50
Cowboys 5.63 6.23 -0.60
Eels 4.95 6.78 -1.80
Sharks 4.37 4.50 -0.10
Warriors 0.33 -11.12 11.50
Broncos -0.30 -5.92 5.60
Raiders -0.56 1.98 -2.50
Roosters -1.71 7.64 -9.40
Knights -3.53 -9.53 6.00
Sea Eagles -4.05 -5.26 1.20
Titans -5.15 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.02 -2.73 -3.30
Dolphins -7.05 -10.00 3.00
Wests Tigers -11.81 -13.52 1.70
Bulldogs -11.91 -8.29 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Jul 06 12 – 36 -11.50 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 07 26 – 36 -1.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 08 10 – 46 15.80 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 08 32 – 36 24.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Jul 09 21 – 23 6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 14 Knights 11.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 15 Broncos -8.60
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 15 Cowboys -6.70
4 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 15 Storm -5.20
5 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 16 Warriors 2.00
6 Dolphins vs. Panthers Jul 16 Panthers -16.40
7 Eels vs. Titans Jul 16 Eels 13.10

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments