Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 11.34 | 9.44 | 1.90 |
| Wellington | 9.54 | 8.72 | 0.80 |
| North Harbour | 7.17 | 7.75 | -0.60 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.33 | 5.12 | -0.80 |
| Tasman | 4.00 | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.79 | 4.55 | -0.80 |
| Waikato | 3.12 | 3.71 | -0.60 |
| Auckland | 1.98 | 2.15 | -0.20 |
| Otago | -1.45 | 0.62 | -2.10 |
| Taranaki | -1.78 | -2.98 | 1.20 |
| Counties Manukau | -6.53 | -7.44 | 0.90 |
| Northland | -6.79 | -3.92 | -2.90 |
| Southland | -11.48 | -12.27 | 0.80 |
| Manawatu | -13.76 | -14.18 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 11 | 24 – 25 | -9.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Aug 12 | 19 – 15 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Otago vs. Wellington | Aug 12 | 5 – 28 | -5.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Aug 12 | 24 – 12 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Harbour vs. Canterbury | Aug 13 | 24 – 28 | -0.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Southland vs. Northland | Aug 13 | 15 – 15 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Taranaki | Aug 13 | 17 – 26 | -9.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato | Aug 16 | Hawke’s Bay | 4.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Will you predict the rugby World Cup games also?
9 months ago
Yes. I have sorted the data and am working on selecting model parameters. I hope to have predictions done by tomorrow, but certainly this week.
8 months ago