Posts written by David Scott (1539)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

January 31, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.90 6.34 1.60
La Rochelle 7.11 6.88 0.20
Racing 92 4.80 4.86 -0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.43 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.40 -1.05 5.50
Montpellier 4.03 4.18 -0.20
Toulon 3.44 4.09 -0.70
Lyon 1.95 3.10 -1.20
Castres Olympique 1.27 2.87 -1.60
Clermont 1.11 4.05 -2.90
Aviron Bayonnais -0.68 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -1.90 -2.12 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.92 -2.75 -2.20
Brive -5.68 -4.20 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Jan 29 37 – 9 10.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 29 23 – 18 3.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Jan 29 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 29 39 – 36 4.30 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Jan 29 27 – 16 11.90 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Jan 29 31 – 24 -3.60 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 30 23 – 9 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 05 Stade Toulousain 15.10
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Feb 05 Brive 5.70
3 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Feb 05 Clermont 6.30
4 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Feb 05 La Rochelle 11.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Feb 05 Racing 92 -0.20
6 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 05 Montpellier 7.10
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 06 Stade Francais 6.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.01 4.14 0.90
Leicester Tigers 2.15 7.93 -5.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.10 3.67 -1.60
Saracens 2.06 -5.00 7.10
Gloucester 1.97 5.92 -3.90
Northampton Saints 1.97 3.99 -2.00
London Irish 1.74 -1.65 3.40
Harlequins 0.54 3.92 -3.40
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.09 -2.43 -0.70
Bath -4.97 -9.15 4.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.54 -8.76 2.20
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 28 30 – 27 15.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jan 29 18 – 19 5.50 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 29 20 – 19 10.80 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Jan 29 24 – 17 4.20 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Harlequins Jan 30 42 – 24 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 18 Bristol 7.90
2 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Feb 18 Gloucester 5.90
3 Bath vs. London Irish Feb 19 London Irish -2.20
4 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 19 Northampton Saints 1.50
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Feb 20 Leicester Tigers 4.60

 

January 10, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

By

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.17 16.79 0.40
Munster 9.38 9.78 -0.40
Ulster 8.55 9.27 -0.70
Stormers 7.62 7.14 0.50
Bulls 7.46 7.84 -0.40
Sharks 5.61 6.95 -1.30
Glasgow 2.12 -0.00 2.10
Edinburgh 2.05 3.58 -1.50
Connacht 1.36 -1.60 3.00
Ospreys -1.09 -0.83 -0.30
Lions -3.08 -1.74 -1.30
Benetton -3.38 -3.68 0.30
Scarlets -4.40 -1.23 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.77 -7.42 1.70
Dragons -10.17 -11.81 1.60
Zebre -17.38 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Bulls Jan 07 14 – 29 -12.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Lions Jan 07 33 – 3 15.70 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Ulster Jan 08 31 – 29 -8.50 FALSE
4 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Jan 08 24 – 17 25.50 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Jan 08 22 – 28 3.60 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Sharks Jan 08 24 – 12 -0.90 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Leinster Jan 08 19 – 24 -14.70 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jan 09 24 – 17 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Jan 28 Bulls -7.40
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Jan 28 Ulster 5.40
3 Benetton vs. Munster Jan 29 Munster -8.30
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Jan 29 Glasgow -7.80
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 29 Leinster 27.40
6 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Jan 29 Edinburgh 0.90
7 Connacht vs. Lions Jan 29 Connacht 8.90
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Jan 30 Ospreys -11.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.70 6.34 1.40
La Rochelle 7.04 6.88 0.20
Racing 92 4.87 4.86 0.00
Stade Francais 4.77 -1.05 5.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.53 5.27 -0.70
Montpellier 4.23 4.18 0.00
Toulon 3.49 4.09 -0.60
Clermont 1.57 4.05 -2.50
Lyon 1.49 3.10 -1.60
Castres Olympique 1.18 2.87 -1.70
Aviron Bayonnais -1.25 -4.26 3.00
Section Paloise -1.95 -2.12 0.20
Brive -5.10 -4.20 -0.90
USA Perpignan -5.29 -2.75 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 08 23 – 15 12.80 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Toulon Jan 08 26 – 17 -2.90 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Jan 08 31 – 20 13.60 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 08 30 – 7 4.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Jan 08 12 – 21 3.90 FALSE
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 08 26 – 7 9.10 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Jan 09 17 – 12 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Jan 28 Aviron Bayonnais 10.40
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 28 Castres Olympique 3.20
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Jan 28 Lyon 6.40
4 Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 28 Racing 92 4.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 28 Stade Toulousain 10.00
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Toulon 11.90
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Stade Francais -3.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.71 4.14 1.60
Saracens 2.62 -5.00 7.60
Leicester Tigers 2.54 7.93 -5.40
Gloucester 2.20 5.92 -3.70
Exeter Chiefs 1.87 3.67 -1.80
Northampton Saints 1.58 3.99 -2.40
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
London Irish 0.99 -1.65 2.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.64 -2.43 -1.20
Bath -5.68 -9.15 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.54 -8.76 2.20
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jan 07 16 – 19 5.00 FALSE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 08 45 – 26 -7.10 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 08 35 – 12 2.70 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Jan 09 16 – 24 1.10 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Jan 09 23 – 7 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 28 Sale Sharks 15.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jan 29 Leicester Tigers 5.50
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 29 Saracens 10.80
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Jan 29 Exeter Chiefs 4.20
5 London Irish vs. Harlequins Jan 30 London Irish 4.20

 

January 3, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.66 16.79 0.90
Ulster 9.06 9.27 -0.20
Munster 8.74 9.78 -1.00
Stormers 8.09 7.14 1.00
Bulls 7.22 7.84 -0.60
Sharks 6.21 6.95 -0.70
Edinburgh 2.82 3.58 -0.80
Glasgow 1.65 -0.00 1.70
Connacht 0.76 -1.60 2.40
Ospreys -1.58 -0.83 -0.80
Lions -2.44 -1.74 -0.70
Benetton -3.90 -3.68 -0.20
Scarlets -4.88 -1.23 -3.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.28 -7.42 2.10
Dragons -9.94 -11.81 1.90
Zebre -18.15 -16.99 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 25 – 32 6.40 FALSE
2 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 31 17 – 40 -9.00 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 01 47 – 20 1.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Lions Jan 01 40 – 8 12.90 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 19 – 22 1.10 FALSE
6 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 33 – 17 8.20 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 02 14 – 15 5.70 FALSE
8 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 02 41 – 12 20.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Bulls Jan 07 Bulls -12.70
2 Munster vs. Lions Jan 07 Munster 15.70
3 Benetton vs. Ulster Jan 08 Ulster -8.50
4 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Jan 08 Edinburgh 25.50
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Jan 08 Cardiff Rugby 3.60
6 Connacht vs. Sharks Jan 08 Sharks -0.90
7 Ospreys vs. Leinster Jan 08 Leinster -14.70
8 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jan 09 Stormers -1.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.29 6.34 1.90
La Rochelle 6.45 6.88 -0.40
Racing 92 4.82 4.86 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.76 5.27 -0.50
Montpellier 4.28 4.18 0.10
Stade Francais 4.27 -1.05 5.30
Toulon 3.90 4.09 -0.20
Clermont 1.70 4.05 -2.40
Castres Olympique 1.67 2.87 -1.20
Lyon 1.05 3.10 -2.10
Aviron Bayonnais -1.49 -4.26 2.80
Section Paloise -1.51 -2.12 0.60
USA Perpignan -5.43 -2.75 -2.70
Brive -5.51 -4.20 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 31 40 – 10 5.50 TRUE
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Toulon Jan 01 23 – 18 0.70 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Jan 01 26 – 26 3.70 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Brive Jan 01 27 – 30 14.20 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Jan 01 37 – 3 10.80 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Jan 01 10 – 29 -4.40 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 13 – 32 1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 08 Bordeaux Begles 12.80
2 Brive vs. Toulon Jan 08 Toulon -2.90
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Jan 08 Clermont 13.60
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 08 La Rochelle 4.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Jan 08 Section Paloise 3.90
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 08 Stade Francais 9.10
7 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Jan 09 Montpellier 6.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.19 4.14 1.10
Leicester Tigers 3.83 7.93 -4.10
Gloucester 2.67 5.92 -3.20
Northampton Saints 2.61 3.99 -1.40
Saracens 2.15 -5.00 7.20
Harlequins 1.81 3.92 -2.10
Exeter Chiefs 0.84 3.67 -2.80
London Irish 0.54 -1.65 2.20
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.19 -2.43 -0.80
Bath -5.68 -9.15 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -7.82 -8.76 0.90
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 31 40 – 5 2.80 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 01 24 – 16 6.40 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. London Irish Jan 01 8 – 6 7.30 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 01 35 – 3 3.00 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 02 46 – 17 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jan 07 Gloucester 5.00
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 08 Leicester Tigers -7.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 08 Exeter Chiefs 2.70
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Jan 09 Harlequins 1.10
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Jan 09 London Irish 8.20

 

December 28, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.36 7.93 -2.60
Sale Sharks 3.66 4.14 -0.50
Harlequins 3.09 3.92 -0.80
Gloucester 3.00 5.92 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 2.24 3.67 -1.40
Northampton Saints 1.32 3.99 -2.70
Saracens 0.75 -5.00 5.80
London Irish 0.21 -1.65 1.90
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.19 -2.43 -0.80
Bath -5.80 -9.15 3.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.69 -8.76 1.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 London Irish vs. Saracens Dec 24 29 – 20 3.30 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 24 20 – 14 -8.40 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Dec 25 20 – 15 13.50 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 25 28 – 13 5.80 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 28 12 – 15 12.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 31 Sale Sharks 2.80
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 01 Bath 6.40
3 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 01 Saracens 3.00
4 Gloucester vs. London Irish Jan 01 Gloucester 7.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 02 Northampton Saints 2.70

 

December 27, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.20 16.79 0.40
Ulster 9.73 9.27 0.50
Bulls 8.20 7.84 0.40
Munster 8.07 9.78 -1.70
Stormers 7.30 7.14 0.20
Sharks 5.23 6.95 -1.70
Edinburgh 3.44 3.58 -0.10
Connacht 1.23 -1.60 2.80
Glasgow 1.04 -0.00 1.00
Lions -1.65 -1.74 0.10
Ospreys -2.00 -0.83 -1.20
Benetton -4.54 -3.68 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -7.42 2.60
Scarlets -5.30 -1.23 -4.10
Dragons -9.52 -11.81 2.30
Zebre -17.52 -16.99 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 37 – 10 9.40 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 37 – 27 2.30 TRUE
3 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 24 20 – 22 -5.10 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 24 16 – 10 0.50 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 25 38 – 5 15.50 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 27 24 – 29 0.40 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 34 – 14 6.00 TRUE
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 19 – 20 -6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 Edinburgh 6.40
2 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 31 Benetton -9.00
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 01 Sharks 1.00
4 Stormers vs. Lions Jan 01 Stormers 12.90
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 Cardiff Rugby 1.10
6 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 Scarlets 8.20
7 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 02 Ulster 5.70
8 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 02 Leinster 20.00

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »