United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 17.66 | 16.79 | 0.90 |
| Ulster | 9.06 | 9.27 | -0.20 |
| Munster | 8.74 | 9.78 | -1.00 |
| Stormers | 8.09 | 7.14 | 1.00 |
| Bulls | 7.22 | 7.84 | -0.60 |
| Sharks | 6.21 | 6.95 | -0.70 |
| Edinburgh | 2.82 | 3.58 | -0.80 |
| Glasgow | 1.65 | -0.00 | 1.70 |
| Connacht | 0.76 | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| Ospreys | -1.58 | -0.83 | -0.80 |
| Lions | -2.44 | -1.74 | -0.70 |
| Benetton | -3.90 | -3.68 | -0.20 |
| Scarlets | -4.88 | -1.23 | -3.60 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.28 | -7.42 | 2.10 |
| Dragons | -9.94 | -11.81 | 1.90 |
| Zebre | -18.15 | -16.99 | -1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 85 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow | Dec 31 | 25 – 32 | 6.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Zebre vs. Benetton | Dec 31 | 17 – 40 | -9.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Jan 01 | 47 – 20 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Lions | Jan 01 | 40 – 8 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys | Jan 02 | 19 – 22 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Dragons | Jan 02 | 33 – 17 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Ulster vs. Munster | Jan 02 | 14 – 15 | 5.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Jan 02 | 41 – 12 | 20.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Bulls | Jan 07 | Bulls | -12.70 |
| 2 | Munster vs. Lions | Jan 07 | Munster | 15.70 |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Ulster | Jan 08 | Ulster | -8.50 |
| 4 | Edinburgh vs. Zebre | Jan 08 | Edinburgh | 25.50 |
| 5 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets | Jan 08 | Cardiff Rugby | 3.60 |
| 6 | Connacht vs. Sharks | Jan 08 | Sharks | -0.90 |
| 7 | Ospreys vs. Leinster | Jan 08 | Leinster | -14.70 |
| 8 | Glasgow vs. Stormers | Jan 09 | Stormers | -1.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »