Top 14 Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.29 | 6.34 | 1.90 |
| La Rochelle | 6.45 | 6.88 | -0.40 |
| Racing 92 | 4.82 | 4.86 | -0.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.76 | 5.27 | -0.50 |
| Montpellier | 4.28 | 4.18 | 0.10 |
| Stade Francais | 4.27 | -1.05 | 5.30 |
| Toulon | 3.90 | 4.09 | -0.20 |
| Clermont | 1.70 | 4.05 | -2.40 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.67 | 2.87 | -1.20 |
| Lyon | 1.05 | 3.10 | -2.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -1.49 | -4.26 | 2.80 |
| Section Paloise | -1.51 | -2.12 | 0.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.43 | -2.75 | -2.70 |
| Brive | -5.51 | -4.20 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 98 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Dec 31 | 40 – 10 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Toulon | Jan 01 | 23 – 18 | 0.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Jan 01 | 26 – 26 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Brive | Jan 01 | 27 – 30 | 14.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise | Jan 01 | 37 – 3 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle | Jan 01 | 10 – 29 | -4.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 02 | 13 – 32 | 1.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Jan 08 | Bordeaux Begles | 12.80 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Toulon | Jan 08 | Toulon | -2.90 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 08 | Clermont | 13.60 |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 08 | La Rochelle | 4.70 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Lyon | Jan 08 | Section Paloise | 3.90 |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 08 | Stade Francais | 9.10 |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Jan 09 | Montpellier | 6.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »