Posts written by David Scott (1539)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 26, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.20 6.78 0.40
Bordeaux-Begles 6.32 5.42 0.90
Racing-Metro 92 6.03 6.13 -0.10
Stade Toulousain 5.92 6.83 -0.90
Clermont Auvergne 4.96 5.09 -0.10
Lyon Rugby 4.15 4.15 -0.00
Montpellier 3.59 -0.01 3.60
RC Toulonnais 3.35 1.82 1.50
Castres Olympique 1.68 0.94 0.70
Stade Francais Paris -0.01 1.20 -1.20
Section Paloise -0.45 -2.25 1.80
USA Perpignan -3.58 -2.78 -0.80
Brive -4.07 -3.19 -0.90
Biarritz -7.72 -2.78 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 24 17 – 31 -0.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 24 12 – 0 2.20 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Apr 24 32 – 16 17.40 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz Apr 24 40 – 7 19.30 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 24 21 – 18 7.40 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 24 19 – 15 3.90 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 25 22 – 23 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Castres Olympique May 01 Castres Olympique -2.90
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais May 01 Bordeaux-Begles 9.50
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Francais Paris May 01 Clermont Auvergne 11.50
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier May 01 Lyon Rugby 7.10
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 01 Section Paloise 0.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle May 01 Stade Toulousain 5.20
7 USA Perpignan vs. Brive May 01 USA Perpignan 7.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.88 13.43 0.50
Blues 11.30 9.26 2.00
Chiefs 8.64 5.56 3.10
Hurricanes 8.49 8.28 0.20
Brumbies 4.28 3.61 0.70
Highlanders 4.21 6.54 -2.30
Reds 1.67 1.37 0.30
Waratahs -5.47 -9.00 3.50
Western Force -5.68 -4.96 -0.70
Rebels -7.89 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -11.83 -10.00 -1.80
Fijian Drua -13.29 -10.00 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 22 51 – 27 6.30 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Apr 23 35 – 18 18.90 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds Apr 23 30 – 17 -0.60 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 24 17 – 28 -5.10 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 24 42 – 17 14.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 29 Chiefs -1.00
2 Western Force vs. Blues Apr 29 Blues -11.00
3 Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders Apr 30 Highlanders -11.50
4 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 30 Crusaders -13.30
5 Rebels vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 30 Rebels 9.90
6 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 01 Brumbies 1.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.48 -5.00 10.50
Leicester Tigers 3.69 -6.14 9.80
Harlequins 2.68 -1.08 3.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.60 7.35 -4.70
Wasps 1.99 5.66 -3.70
Sale Sharks 1.73 4.96 -3.20
Northampton Saints 1.71 -2.48 4.20
Gloucester 0.69 -1.02 1.70
London Irish -2.61 -8.05 5.40
Bristol -3.11 1.28 -4.40
Bath -6.11 2.14 -8.20
Newcastle Falcons -7.41 -3.52 -3.90
Worcester Warriors -12.92 -5.71 -7.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 23 29 – 28 0.60 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Apr 23 14 – 42 2.60 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Apr 24 31 – 36 -3.00 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 24 26 – 20 3.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 24 41 – 12 18.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 25 38 – 22 6.30 TRUE

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Apr 30 Northampton Saints 3.50
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 30 Sale Sharks 13.60
3 Gloucester vs. Bath May 01 Gloucester 11.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol May 01 Leicester Tigers 11.30
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 01 Saracens -13.90
6 London Irish vs. Wasps May 02 Wasps -0.10
April 19, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.86 19.20 -2.30
Panthers 14.71 14.26 0.40
Rabbitohs 12.60 15.81 -3.20
Sea Eagles 8.54 10.99 -2.50
Eels 3.85 2.54 1.30
Roosters 2.21 2.23 -0.00
Sharks 1.84 -1.10 2.90
Titans -0.61 1.05 -1.70
Raiders -3.61 -1.10 -2.50
Knights -5.81 -6.54 0.70
Dragons -7.39 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -7.89 -8.99 1.10
Cowboys -8.48 -12.27 3.80
Broncos -8.87 -8.90 0.00
Bulldogs -9.80 -10.25 0.40
Wests Tigers -10.13 -10.94 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 14 12 – 18 9.80 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 15 36 – 16 22.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Apr 15 40 – 12 26.30 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 16 26 – 18 12.90 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 16 34 – 18 18.40 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 17 22 – 14 16.70 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 17 21 – 16 0.70 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 18 20 – 21 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 21 Sea Eagles -3.70
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 22 Broncos 3.90
3 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 23 Titans -4.90
4 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 Rabbitohs -19.70
5 Knights vs. Eels Apr 24 Eels -6.70
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 24 Panthers 21.30
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -6.60
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 30.30

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 24

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Team Ratings for Week 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.18 14.79 2.40
Munster 10.28 10.69 -0.40
Ulster 8.54 7.41 1.10
Bulls 6.71 3.65 3.10
Stormers 5.45 0.00 5.40
Edinburgh 5.05 2.90 2.20
Sharks 4.84 -0.07 4.90
Glasgow 3.38 3.69 -0.30
Connacht -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Scarlets -0.96 -0.77 -0.20
Lions -1.45 -3.91 2.50
Ospreys -2.22 0.94 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -0.11 -5.60
Benetton -6.38 -4.50 -1.90
Dragons -9.37 -6.92 -2.40
Zebre -18.76 -13.47 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Dragons Apr 17 27 – 38 15.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Glasgow Apr 23 Stormers 8.60
2 Ulster vs. Munster Apr 23 Ulster 3.30
3 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Apr 23 Edinburgh 30.30
4 Bulls vs. Benetton Apr 24 Bulls 19.60
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 24 Scarlets -3.40
6 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 24 Lions 5.60
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Apr 24 Cardiff Rugby 1.50
8 Sharks vs. Leinster Apr 24 Leinster -5.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.29 13.43 -0.10
Blues 11.45 9.26 2.20
Hurricanes 7.75 8.28 -0.50
Chiefs 7.72 5.56 2.20
Highlanders 4.68 6.54 -1.90
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 2.40 1.37 1.00
Waratahs -4.55 -9.00 4.40
Western Force -5.68 -4.96 -0.70
Rebels -7.31 -5.79 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -11.83 -10.00 -1.80
Fijian Drua -13.45 -10.00 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 15 23 – 27 8.70 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 15 32 – 36 -4.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 16 45 – 12 24.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 16 21 – 22 3.10 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 16 24 – 41 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 22 Chiefs 6.30
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Apr 22 Western Force -12.10
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Apr 23 Blues 18.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Reds Apr 23 Reds -0.60
5 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 24 Brumbies -5.10
6 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 24 Crusaders 14.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.91 7.25 2.70
Cheetahs 5.58 -2.70 8.30
Sharks 3.88 4.13 -0.30
Pumas -0.32 -3.31 3.00
Western Province -2.42 1.42 -3.80
Griquas -3.09 -4.92 1.80
Lions -13.54 -1.88 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Apr 16 17 – 23 -5.90 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Apr 16 21 – 28 -2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Cheetahs May 07 Cheetahs -14.60
2 Sharks vs. Pumas May 07 Sharks 8.70
3 Bulls vs. Griquas May 08 Bulls 17.50

 

April 12, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.99 13.43 0.60
Blues 10.75 9.26 1.50
Hurricanes 7.43 8.28 -0.80
Chiefs 7.21 5.56 1.60
Highlanders 5.01 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -4.50 -4.96 0.50
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.33 -5.79 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -11.31 -10.00 -1.30
Fijian Drua -13.45 -10.00 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 36.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 53 – 12 22.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 15 Crusaders 8.70
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 15 Reds -4.30
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Apr 16 Chiefs -13.00
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 16 Highlanders 3.10
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs Apr 16 Western Force 6.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

For a second week all the result predictions have been correct which seems to have generated a lot of interest and some comments.

Please be aware this is a rare event. I have been predicting Super Rugby and NRL for 10 years and getting all results correct is rare enough but never before have I had all results correct two weeks in a row. For me it is simply an example of a fact about rare events. Even if the probability of an outcome is low, if you repeat the action many times it is likely that the outcome will occur.

Regarding the correctness of my predictions, all I will say is that over the course of a season, it is likely that I will get a bit over 70% of correct results. That is what I have observed over a number of years for different competitions but that can vary a lot as well. For many years I was unable to get to 70% correct predictions for the NRL. Currently my predictions for the Rugby Premiership are only 54% correct.

My purpose in posting these predictions has been to illustrate the efficacy of a very simple statistical method of forecasting.  The predictions are also an illustration of what can happen with random events. It can appear that there is a consistent pattern which can be exploited even over what seems to be a considerable time. Never believe that you can beat randomness: it will come back to bite you.

Against my usual practice I won’t publish or comment on all submitted comments this week.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.05 19.20 -2.20
Panthers 14.57 14.26 0.30
Rabbitohs 12.83 15.81 -3.00
Sea Eagles 8.94 10.99 -2.10
Eels 5.06 2.54 2.50
Roosters 2.77 2.23 0.50
Sharks 1.65 -1.10 2.80
Titans -1.00 1.05 -2.00
Raiders -2.65 -1.10 -1.50
Knights -5.47 -6.54 1.10
Dragons -7.73 -7.99 0.30
Warriors -8.45 -8.99 0.50
Broncos -8.74 -8.90 0.20
Cowboys -9.44 -12.27 2.80
Bulldogs -10.03 -10.25 0.20
Wests Tigers -11.34 -10.94 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 07 6 – 30 -9.60 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 08 25 – 24 7.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 08 20 – 24 -9.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 09 16 – 30 -17.20 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Apr 09 24 – 12 25.20 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Eels Apr 09 20 – 26 -2.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 30 – 4 14.60 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Apr 10 12 – 32 -21.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 14 Raiders 9.80
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 15 Rabbitohs 22.90
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Apr 15 Panthers 26.30
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 16 Sea Eagles 12.90
5 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 16 Storm 18.40
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 17 Roosters 16.70
7 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 17 Dragons 0.70
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 18 Eels 19.40

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 23

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Team Ratings for Week 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.18 14.79 2.40
Munster 10.28 10.69 -0.40
Ulster 8.54 7.41 1.10
Bulls 6.71 3.65 3.10
Stormers 5.45 0.00 5.40
Edinburgh 5.05 2.90 2.20
Sharks 4.84 -0.07 4.90
Glasgow 3.38 3.69 -0.30
Scarlets 0.29 -0.77 1.10
Connacht -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Lions -1.45 -3.91 2.50
Ospreys -2.22 0.94 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -0.11 -5.60
Benetton -6.38 -4.50 -1.90
Dragons -10.62 -6.92 -3.70
Zebre -18.76 -13.47 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 10 19 – 17 4.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 10 37 – 10 9.50 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Apr 10 14 – 49 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Dragons Apr 17 Scarlets 15.90

 

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